Trader consensus shows nearly even implied probabilities for a 31°C or 32°C high in Hong Kong on August 20, reflecting tight spreads in short-range forecast models amid typical late-summer subtropical conditions. Daytime temperatures hinge on the strength of the Pacific high-pressure ridge, which promotes subsidence and clear skies conducive to strong solar heating, versus any increase in monsoon moisture or cloud cover that could limit maxima. Sea surface temperatures near 29–30°C provide ample energy for boundary-layer warming, while urban heat island effects in the city amplify readings by 1–2°C relative to rural stations. Official guidance from the Hong Kong Observatory and global ensembles will be updated with new satellite and radiosonde data over the next 48 hours, potentially shifting resolution thresholds if steering flows or convective activity evolve.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於8月20日香港最高溫度？
8月20日香港最高溫度？
32°C 34%
31°C 32%
33°C 14%
30°C 13%
最新
最新
2026-08-20
27°C or below
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
6%
30°C
13%
31°C
32%
32°C
34%
33°C
14%
34°C
5%
35°C
1%
36°C
<1%
37°C or higher
<1%
32°C 34%
31°C 32%
33°C 14%
30°C 13%
最新
最新
2026-08-20
27°C or below
$156 交易量
<1%
28°C
$400 交易量
<1%
29°C
$248 交易量
6%
30°C
$37 交易量
13%
31°C
$131 交易量
32%
32°C
$103 交易量
34%
33°C
$74 交易量
14%
34°C
$145 交易量
5%
35°C
$36 交易量
1%
36°C
$10 交易量
<1%
37°C or higher
$22 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 20 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus shows nearly even implied probabilities for a 31°C or 32°C high in Hong Kong on August 20, reflecting tight spreads in short-range forecast models amid typical late-summer subtropical conditions. Daytime temperatures hinge on the strength of the Pacific high-pressure ridge, which promotes subsidence and clear skies conducive to strong solar heating, versus any increase in monsoon moisture or cloud cover that could limit maxima. Sea surface temperatures near 29–30°C provide ample energy for boundary-layer warming, while urban heat island effects in the city amplify readings by 1–2°C relative to rural stations. Official guidance from the Hong Kong Observatory and global ensembles will be updated with new satellite and radiosonde data over the next 48 hours, potentially shifting resolution thresholds if steering flows or convective activity evolve.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 20 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市場開放時間： Aug 18, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
交易量
$1,362結束日期
2026-08-20市場開放時間
Aug 18, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 20 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus shows nearly even implied probabilities for a 31°C or 32°C high in Hong Kong on August 20, reflecting tight spreads in short-range forecast models amid typical late-summer subtropical conditions. Daytime temperatures hinge on the strength of the Pacific high-pressure ridge, which promotes subsidence and clear skies conducive to strong solar heating, versus any increase in monsoon moisture or cloud cover that could limit maxima. Sea surface temperatures near 29–30°C provide ample energy for boundary-layer warming, while urban heat island effects in the city amplify readings by 1–2°C relative to rural stations. Official guidance from the Hong Kong Observatory and global ensembles will be updated with new satellite and radiosonde data over the next 48 hours, potentially shifting resolution thresholds if steering flows or convective activity evolve.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 20 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
交易量
$1,362結束日期
2026-08-20市場開放時間
Aug 18, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus shows nearly even implied probabilities for a 31°C or 32°C high in Hong Kong on August 20, reflecting tight spreads in short-range forecast models amid typical late-summer subtropical conditions. Daytime temperatures hinge on the strength of the Pacific high-pressure ridge, which promotes subsidence and clear skies conducive to strong solar heating, versus any increase in monsoon moisture or cloud cover that could limit maxima. Sea surface temperatures near 29–30°C provide ample energy for boundary-layer warming, while urban heat island effects in the city amplify readings by 1–2°C relative to rural stations. Official guidance from the Hong Kong Observatory and global ensembles will be updated with new satellite and radiosonde data over the next 48 hours, potentially shifting resolution thresholds if steering flows or convective activity evolve.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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警惕外部連結哦。
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