Latest National Weather Service and ensemble model guidance indicate a hot, humid ridge over the Northeast on July 15, with southerly flow and limited cloud cover supporting afternoon highs near 98–100 °F in Central Park. The market’s tight split between the 98–99 °F and 100–101 °F bins reflects modest run-to-run variability in peak boundary-layer temperatures, dew-point depression, and urban heat-island amplification. Historical July maxima average 85 °F, so this pattern represents a strong positive anomaly driven by the same mid-level ridge that produced earlier heat-wave conditions. Traders are weighting the latest deterministic and probabilistic outputs from the GFS, ECMWF, and NBM, which still show a narrow window for either slight under- or over-performance depending on the precise timing of any weak shortwave or wind shift.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於7月15日紐約市的最高溫度？
7月15日紐約市的最高溫度？
98-99°F 36%
100-101°F 31%
96-97°F 14%
102-103°F 8%
最新
最新
2026-07-15
93°F or below
4%
94-95°F
8%
96-97°F
14%
98-99°F
36%
100-101°F
31%
102-103°F
8%
104-105°F
4%
106-107°F
1%
108-109°F
<1%
110-111°F
<1%
華氏112度或更高
<1%
98-99°F 36%
100-101°F 31%
96-97°F 14%
102-103°F 8%
最新
最新
2026-07-15
93°F or below
$13 交易量
4%
94-95°F
$130 交易量
8%
96-97°F
$180 交易量
14%
98-99°F
$85 交易量
36%
100-101°F
$69 交易量
31%
102-103°F
$10 交易量
8%
104-105°F
$91 交易量
4%
106-107°F
$101 交易量
1%
108-109°F
$244 交易量
<1%
110-111°F
$150 交易量
<1%
華氏112度或更高
$81 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest National Weather Service and ensemble model guidance indicate a hot, humid ridge over the Northeast on July 15, with southerly flow and limited cloud cover supporting afternoon highs near 98–100 °F in Central Park. The market’s tight split between the 98–99 °F and 100–101 °F bins reflects modest run-to-run variability in peak boundary-layer temperatures, dew-point depression, and urban heat-island amplification. Historical July maxima average 85 °F, so this pattern represents a strong positive anomaly driven by the same mid-level ridge that produced earlier heat-wave conditions. Traders are weighting the latest deterministic and probabilistic outputs from the GFS, ECMWF, and NBM, which still show a narrow window for either slight under- or over-performance depending on the precise timing of any weak shortwave or wind shift.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間： Jul 13, 2026, 10:02 PM ET
交易量
$1,143結束日期
2026-07-15市場開放時間
Jul 13, 2026, 10:02 PM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest National Weather Service and ensemble model guidance indicate a hot, humid ridge over the Northeast on July 15, with southerly flow and limited cloud cover supporting afternoon highs near 98–100 °F in Central Park. The market’s tight split between the 98–99 °F and 100–101 °F bins reflects modest run-to-run variability in peak boundary-layer temperatures, dew-point depression, and urban heat-island amplification. Historical July maxima average 85 °F, so this pattern represents a strong positive anomaly driven by the same mid-level ridge that produced earlier heat-wave conditions. Traders are weighting the latest deterministic and probabilistic outputs from the GFS, ECMWF, and NBM, which still show a narrow window for either slight under- or over-performance depending on the precise timing of any weak shortwave or wind shift.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$1,143結束日期
2026-07-15市場開放時間
Jul 13, 2026, 10:02 PM ETLatest National Weather Service and ensemble model guidance indicate a hot, humid ridge over the Northeast on July 15, with southerly flow and limited cloud cover supporting afternoon highs near 98–100 °F in Central Park. The market’s tight split between the 98–99 °F and 100–101 °F bins reflects modest run-to-run variability in peak boundary-layer temperatures, dew-point depression, and urban heat-island amplification. Historical July maxima average 85 °F, so this pattern represents a strong positive anomaly driven by the same mid-level ridge that produced earlier heat-wave conditions. Traders are weighting the latest deterministic and probabilistic outputs from the GFS, ECMWF, and NBM, which still show a narrow window for either slight under- or over-performance depending on the precise timing of any weak shortwave or wind shift.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions