Trader consensus positions 32°C as the leading outcome for Shanghai's July 4 daily high at 36% implied probability, driven by the latest ensemble forecasts from global models showing peak readings clustered near seasonal norms for early July in eastern China. These projections incorporate current atmospheric patterns, including subtropical high pressure and moisture advection that typically moderate extremes while allowing urban heat effects to add 1–2°C locally. Supporting outcomes at 31°C and 33°C reflect model spread and minor uncertainties in cloud cover or wind, with historical data indicating July maxima most often fall between 30–35°C absent strong heatwave setups. Refined model updates over the next 48 hours will likely tighten these market-implied odds as resolution approaches.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於Highest temperature in Shanghai on July 4?
Highest temperature in Shanghai on July 4?
33°C 31%
34°C 22%
32°C 22%
35°C 12%
最新
最新
2026-07-04
28°C or below
<1%
29°C
1%
30°C
2%
31°C
7%
32°C
22%
33°C
31%
34°C
22%
35°C
12%
36°C
1%
37°C
1%
38°C or higher
<1%
33°C 31%
34°C 22%
32°C 22%
35°C 12%
最新
最新
2026-07-04
28°C or below
$763 交易量
<1%
29°C
$715 交易量
1%
30°C
$895 交易量
2%
31°C
$674 交易量
7%
32°C
$438 交易量
22%
33°C
$395 交易量
31%
34°C
$109 交易量
22%
35°C
$88 交易量
12%
36°C
$283 交易量
1%
37°C
$515 交易量
1%
38°C or higher
$330 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Trader consensus positions 32°C as the leading outcome for Shanghai's July 4 daily high at 36% implied probability, driven by the latest ensemble forecasts from global models showing peak readings clustered near seasonal norms for early July in eastern China. These projections incorporate current atmospheric patterns, including subtropical high pressure and moisture advection that typically moderate extremes while allowing urban heat effects to add 1–2°C locally. Supporting outcomes at 31°C and 33°C reflect model spread and minor uncertainties in cloud cover or wind, with historical data indicating July maxima most often fall between 30–35°C absent strong heatwave setups. Refined model updates over the next 48 hours will likely tighten these market-implied odds as resolution approaches.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間： Jul 2, 2026, 12:02 AM ET
交易量
$5,205結束日期
2026-07-04市場開放時間
Jul 2, 2026, 12:02 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Trader consensus positions 32°C as the leading outcome for Shanghai's July 4 daily high at 36% implied probability, driven by the latest ensemble forecasts from global models showing peak readings clustered near seasonal norms for early July in eastern China. These projections incorporate current atmospheric patterns, including subtropical high pressure and moisture advection that typically moderate extremes while allowing urban heat effects to add 1–2°C locally. Supporting outcomes at 31°C and 33°C reflect model spread and minor uncertainties in cloud cover or wind, with historical data indicating July maxima most often fall between 30–35°C absent strong heatwave setups. Refined model updates over the next 48 hours will likely tighten these market-implied odds as resolution approaches.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$5,205結束日期
2026-07-04市場開放時間
Jul 2, 2026, 12:02 AM ETTrader consensus positions 32°C as the leading outcome for Shanghai's July 4 daily high at 36% implied probability, driven by the latest ensemble forecasts from global models showing peak readings clustered near seasonal norms for early July in eastern China. These projections incorporate current atmospheric patterns, including subtropical high pressure and moisture advection that typically moderate extremes while allowing urban heat effects to add 1–2°C locally. Supporting outcomes at 31°C and 33°C reflect model spread and minor uncertainties in cloud cover or wind, with historical data indicating July maxima most often fall between 30–35°C absent strong heatwave setups. Refined model updates over the next 48 hours will likely tighten these market-implied odds as resolution approaches.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions