Recent Central Weather Administration outlooks and extended model guidance point to normal-to-above-average June temperatures across northern Taiwan, with trader probabilities clustered around 29–32 °C reflecting uncertainty in cloud cover and afternoon convection expected for June 28. Taipei’s subtropical monsoon climate typically produces daily highs near 31 °C, but scattered showers or thunderstorms—common in late June—can suppress peak readings by 1–2 °C through reduced insolation, while clearer intervals allow brief spikes toward 33 °C. Ensemble spreads from global models remain wide due to the short lead time and variable steering flow, keeping the market-implied distribution tight between the 29 °C and 32 °C bins. Updated CWA bulletins and local radar trends over the next 48 hours will likely narrow the range as precipitation timing becomes clearer.