Wellington’s winter climate features average July daily maxima near 12–13°C, with highs rarely exceeding 15°C or dropping below 10°C amid frequent southerly winds and frontal passages. Current numerical weather prediction models from MetService and international ensembles converge on a 12–14°C range for July 29, driven by a transient ridge delivering mostly fine conditions before increasing cloud and a possible weak front, with light northerly flow limiting daytime warming. The recent July 22 high of exactly 14°C illustrates how quickly model consensus can shift probabilities, and NIWA’s seasonal outlook for near- or below-average temperatures reinforces the modest upside risk. Traders therefore assign the highest implied probabilities to 13°C and 14°C, reflecting tight forecast spreads and typical day-to-day variability in the capital’s exposed coastal setting two days before resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於7月29日惠靈頓的最高溫度？
7月29日惠靈頓的最高溫度？
13°C 45%
14°C 37%
12°C 11%
15°C 7%
最新
最新
2026-07-29
8°C或以下
<1%
9°C
<1%
10°C
2%
11°C
3%
12°C
11%
13°C
45%
14°C
37%
15°C
7%
16°C
2%
17°C
2%
18°C或以上
<1%
13°C 45%
14°C 37%
12°C 11%
15°C 7%
最新
最新
2026-07-29
8°C或以下
$351 交易量
<1%
9°C
$351 交易量
<1%
10°C
$32 交易量
2%
11°C
$11 交易量
3%
12°C
$29 交易量
11%
13°C
$384 交易量
45%
14°C
$392 交易量
37%
15°C
$62 交易量
7%
16°C
$5 交易量
2%
17°C
$10 交易量
2%
18°C或以上
$351 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Wellington’s winter climate features average July daily maxima near 12–13°C, with highs rarely exceeding 15°C or dropping below 10°C amid frequent southerly winds and frontal passages. Current numerical weather prediction models from MetService and international ensembles converge on a 12–14°C range for July 29, driven by a transient ridge delivering mostly fine conditions before increasing cloud and a possible weak front, with light northerly flow limiting daytime warming. The recent July 22 high of exactly 14°C illustrates how quickly model consensus can shift probabilities, and NIWA’s seasonal outlook for near- or below-average temperatures reinforces the modest upside risk. Traders therefore assign the highest implied probabilities to 13°C and 14°C, reflecting tight forecast spreads and typical day-to-day variability in the capital’s exposed coastal setting two days before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間： Jul 27, 2026, 4:03 AM ET
交易量
$1,978結束日期
2026-07-29市場開放時間
Jul 27, 2026, 4:03 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Wellington’s winter climate features average July daily maxima near 12–13°C, with highs rarely exceeding 15°C or dropping below 10°C amid frequent southerly winds and frontal passages. Current numerical weather prediction models from MetService and international ensembles converge on a 12–14°C range for July 29, driven by a transient ridge delivering mostly fine conditions before increasing cloud and a possible weak front, with light northerly flow limiting daytime warming. The recent July 22 high of exactly 14°C illustrates how quickly model consensus can shift probabilities, and NIWA’s seasonal outlook for near- or below-average temperatures reinforces the modest upside risk. Traders therefore assign the highest implied probabilities to 13°C and 14°C, reflecting tight forecast spreads and typical day-to-day variability in the capital’s exposed coastal setting two days before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$1,978結束日期
2026-07-29市場開放時間
Jul 27, 2026, 4:03 AM ETWellington’s winter climate features average July daily maxima near 12–13°C, with highs rarely exceeding 15°C or dropping below 10°C amid frequent southerly winds and frontal passages. Current numerical weather prediction models from MetService and international ensembles converge on a 12–14°C range for July 29, driven by a transient ridge delivering mostly fine conditions before increasing cloud and a possible weak front, with light northerly flow limiting daytime warming. The recent July 22 high of exactly 14°C illustrates how quickly model consensus can shift probabilities, and NIWA’s seasonal outlook for near- or below-average temperatures reinforces the modest upside risk. Traders therefore assign the highest implied probabilities to 13°C and 14°C, reflecting tight forecast spreads and typical day-to-day variability in the capital’s exposed coastal setting two days before resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions