Recent Federal Reserve policy actions and shifting inflation signals have anchored trader focus on the 10-year Treasury yield's September range. The central bank raised the federal funds target range by 25 basis points last week and signaled potential further tightening, reinforcing expectations for a higher-for-longer policy path amid resilient growth and geopolitical oil-supply risks. Yields climbed toward 5.04% mid-month—the highest since 2007—before easing below 4.96% as crude prices declined and risk sentiment improved modestly. Market-implied odds reflect this volatility, with the lowest print likely determined by any additional data on inflation, labor conditions, or central bank communications before month-end. Traders monitor upcoming Fed speeches and energy market developments for potential late-September moves.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於$62,195 交易量
2026-09-30
低於4.76%
5%
低於4.73%
3%
低於4.70%
2%
低於4.67%
2%
低於4.64%
2%
低於4.61%
1%
低於4.56%
2%
低於4.51%
3%
低於4.45%
2%
$62,195 交易量
低於4.76%
$24,137 交易量
5%
低於4.73%
$13,362 交易量
3%
低於4.70%
$9,222 交易量
2%
低於4.67%
$2,629 交易量
2%
低於4.64%
$4,366 交易量
2%
低於4.61%
$3,137 交易量
1%
低於4.56%
$1,718 交易量
2%
低於4.51%
$980 交易量
3%
低於4.45%
$2,645 交易量
2%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and September 30, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for September 30, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for September 30, 2026 by October 14, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).Recent Federal Reserve policy actions and shifting inflation signals have anchored trader focus on the 10-year Treasury yield's September range. The central bank raised the federal funds target range by 25 basis points last week and signaled potential further tightening, reinforcing expectations for a higher-for-longer policy path amid resilient growth and geopolitical oil-supply risks. Yields climbed toward 5.04% mid-month—the highest since 2007—before easing below 4.96% as crude prices declined and risk sentiment improved modestly. Market-implied odds reflect this volatility, with the lowest print likely determined by any additional data on inflation, labor conditions, or central bank communications before month-end. Traders monitor upcoming Fed speeches and energy market developments for potential late-September moves.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and September 30, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for September 30, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for September 30, 2026 by October 14, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for September 30, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for September 30, 2026 by October 14, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
市場開放時間： Sep 2, 2026, 9:05 PM ET
交易量
$62,195結束日期
2026-09-30市場開放時間
Sep 2, 2026, 9:05 PM ETThis market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and September 30, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for September 30, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for September 30, 2026 by October 14, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).Recent Federal Reserve policy actions and shifting inflation signals have anchored trader focus on the 10-year Treasury yield's September range. The central bank raised the federal funds target range by 25 basis points last week and signaled potential further tightening, reinforcing expectations for a higher-for-longer policy path amid resilient growth and geopolitical oil-supply risks. Yields climbed toward 5.04% mid-month—the highest since 2007—before easing below 4.96% as crude prices declined and risk sentiment improved modestly. Market-implied odds reflect this volatility, with the lowest print likely determined by any additional data on inflation, labor conditions, or central bank communications before month-end. Traders monitor upcoming Fed speeches and energy market developments for potential late-September moves.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and September 30, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for September 30, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for September 30, 2026 by October 14, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for September 30, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for September 30, 2026 by October 14, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
交易量
$62,195結束日期
2026-09-30市場開放時間
Sep 2, 2026, 9:05 PM ETRecent Federal Reserve policy actions and shifting inflation signals have anchored trader focus on the 10-year Treasury yield's September range. The central bank raised the federal funds target range by 25 basis points last week and signaled potential further tightening, reinforcing expectations for a higher-for-longer policy path amid resilient growth and geopolitical oil-supply risks. Yields climbed toward 5.04% mid-month—the highest since 2007—before easing below 4.96% as crude prices declined and risk sentiment improved modestly. Market-implied odds reflect this volatility, with the lowest print likely determined by any additional data on inflation, labor conditions, or central bank communications before month-end. Traders monitor upcoming Fed speeches and energy market developments for potential late-September moves.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions