The 10-year Treasury yield, trading near 4.79% in early September 2026 after touching intraday highs above 4.81%, faces upward pressure from elevated oil prices tied to U.S.-Iran tensions, which have lifted one-year inflation expectations toward 2.5% and reduced odds of near-term Fed easing. Persistent fiscal concerns, with federal debt exceeding $40 trillion, have widened term premia as heavy Treasury supply competes with corporate issuance for AI infrastructure spending. The Federal Open Market Committee’s September 15-16 meeting, alongside upcoming inflation and labor data, represents the key near-term catalyst that could influence whether yields retrace amid these supply, demand, and policy dynamics.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於最新
2026-09-30
低於4.76%
50%
低於4.73%
50%
低於4.70%
50%
低於4.67%
50%
低於4.64%
50%
低於4.61%
49%
低於4.56%
49%
低於4.51%
49%
低於4.45%
49%
$0.00 交易量
低於4.76%
$0 交易量
50%
低於4.73%
$0 交易量
50%
低於4.70%
$0 交易量
50%
低於4.67%
$0 交易量
50%
低於4.64%
$0 交易量
50%
低於4.61%
$0 交易量
49%
低於4.56%
$0 交易量
49%
低於4.51%
$0 交易量
49%
低於4.45%
$0 交易量
49%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and September 30, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for September 30, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for September 30, 2026 by October 14, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).The 10-year Treasury yield, trading near 4.79% in early September 2026 after touching intraday highs above 4.81%, faces upward pressure from elevated oil prices tied to U.S.-Iran tensions, which have lifted one-year inflation expectations toward 2.5% and reduced odds of near-term Fed easing. Persistent fiscal concerns, with federal debt exceeding $40 trillion, have widened term premia as heavy Treasury supply competes with corporate issuance for AI infrastructure spending. The Federal Open Market Committee’s September 15-16 meeting, alongside upcoming inflation and labor data, represents the key near-term catalyst that could influence whether yields retrace amid these supply, demand, and policy dynamics.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and September 30, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for September 30, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for September 30, 2026 by October 14, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for September 30, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for September 30, 2026 by October 14, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
市場開放時間： Sep 2, 2026, 9:05 PM ET
交易量
$0結束日期
2026-09-30市場開放時間
Sep 2, 2026, 9:05 PM ETThis market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and September 30, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for September 30, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for September 30, 2026 by October 14, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).The 10-year Treasury yield, trading near 4.79% in early September 2026 after touching intraday highs above 4.81%, faces upward pressure from elevated oil prices tied to U.S.-Iran tensions, which have lifted one-year inflation expectations toward 2.5% and reduced odds of near-term Fed easing. Persistent fiscal concerns, with federal debt exceeding $40 trillion, have widened term premia as heavy Treasury supply competes with corporate issuance for AI infrastructure spending. The Federal Open Market Committee’s September 15-16 meeting, alongside upcoming inflation and labor data, represents the key near-term catalyst that could influence whether yields retrace amid these supply, demand, and policy dynamics.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and September 30, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for September 30, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for September 30, 2026 by October 14, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for September 30, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for September 30, 2026 by October 14, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
交易量
$0結束日期
2026-09-30市場開放時間
Sep 2, 2026, 9:05 PM ETThe 10-year Treasury yield, trading near 4.79% in early September 2026 after touching intraday highs above 4.81%, faces upward pressure from elevated oil prices tied to U.S.-Iran tensions, which have lifted one-year inflation expectations toward 2.5% and reduced odds of near-term Fed easing. Persistent fiscal concerns, with federal debt exceeding $40 trillion, have widened term premia as heavy Treasury supply competes with corporate issuance for AI infrastructure spending. The Federal Open Market Committee’s September 15-16 meeting, alongside upcoming inflation and labor data, represents the key near-term catalyst that could influence whether yields retrace amid these supply, demand, and policy dynamics.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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