Recent geopolitical tensions involving Iran have elevated crude oil prices above $95 per barrel, reinforcing inflation concerns and driving the 5-year Treasury yield to approximately 4.54% as of September 2, 2026—up over 80 basis points year-to-date amid a broader rise in term premium. Hawkish communications from Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh, combined with heavy Treasury issuance and robust AI-related capital spending, have amplified the move higher in real yields. Key near-term catalysts include the September 4 nonfarm payrolls report, September 11 CPI release, and the September 15–16 FOMC meeting with updated economic projections, all of which could influence market-implied rate paths and yield volatility through month-end.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於最新
2026-09-30
4.90%
50%
4.83%
50%
4.78%
50%
4.73%
50%
4.70%
51%
4.67%
51%
4.64%
51%
4.61%
51%
4.58%
51%
$0.00 交易量
4.90%
$0 交易量
50%
4.83%
$0 交易量
50%
4.78%
$0 交易量
50%
4.73%
$0 交易量
50%
4.70%
$0 交易量
51%
4.67%
$0 交易量
51%
4.64%
$0 交易量
51%
4.61%
$0 交易量
51%
4.58%
$0 交易量
51%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 5-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and September 30, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for September 30, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for September 30, 2026 by October 14, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).Recent geopolitical tensions involving Iran have elevated crude oil prices above $95 per barrel, reinforcing inflation concerns and driving the 5-year Treasury yield to approximately 4.54% as of September 2, 2026—up over 80 basis points year-to-date amid a broader rise in term premium. Hawkish communications from Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh, combined with heavy Treasury issuance and robust AI-related capital spending, have amplified the move higher in real yields. Key near-term catalysts include the September 4 nonfarm payrolls report, September 11 CPI release, and the September 15–16 FOMC meeting with updated economic projections, all of which could influence market-implied rate paths and yield volatility through month-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 5-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and September 30, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for September 30, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for September 30, 2026 by October 14, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for September 30, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for September 30, 2026 by October 14, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
市場開放時間： Sep 2, 2026, 9:06 PM ET
交易量
$0結束日期
2026-09-30市場開放時間
Sep 2, 2026, 9:06 PM ETThis market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 5-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and September 30, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for September 30, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for September 30, 2026 by October 14, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).Recent geopolitical tensions involving Iran have elevated crude oil prices above $95 per barrel, reinforcing inflation concerns and driving the 5-year Treasury yield to approximately 4.54% as of September 2, 2026—up over 80 basis points year-to-date amid a broader rise in term premium. Hawkish communications from Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh, combined with heavy Treasury issuance and robust AI-related capital spending, have amplified the move higher in real yields. Key near-term catalysts include the September 4 nonfarm payrolls report, September 11 CPI release, and the September 15–16 FOMC meeting with updated economic projections, all of which could influence market-implied rate paths and yield volatility through month-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 5-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and September 30, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for September 30, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for September 30, 2026 by October 14, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for September 30, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for September 30, 2026 by October 14, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
交易量
$0結束日期
2026-09-30市場開放時間
Sep 2, 2026, 9:06 PM ETRecent geopolitical tensions involving Iran have elevated crude oil prices above $95 per barrel, reinforcing inflation concerns and driving the 5-year Treasury yield to approximately 4.54% as of September 2, 2026—up over 80 basis points year-to-date amid a broader rise in term premium. Hawkish communications from Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh, combined with heavy Treasury issuance and robust AI-related capital spending, have amplified the move higher in real yields. Key near-term catalysts include the September 4 nonfarm payrolls report, September 11 CPI release, and the September 15–16 FOMC meeting with updated economic projections, all of which could influence market-implied rate paths and yield volatility through month-end.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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警惕外部連結哦。
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