Recent hotter-than-expected October core CPI data, rising 0.3% month-over-month against forecasts of 0.2%, combined with Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller's comments favoring a potential 50 basis point policy rate hike at the December FOMC meeting, drove a sharp repricing in Treasury markets. The 5-year yield climbed to 4.81% on November 10, 2026, up over 14 basis points that session amid broader curve steepening, with the 2-year yield surging nearly 18 basis points. Traders now assign an over 90% probability to a December rate increase, with some pricing in the possibility of a larger move if inflation persists, supported by Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan's call for at least two additional quarter-point hikes. This environment of sticky inflation and firmer policy expectations sets the near-term path for the 5-year yield through year-end.