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政治·主要

IA-02共和黨初選獲勝者

icon for IA-02共和黨初選獲勝者
政治·主要

IA-02共和黨初選獲勝者

Joe Mitchell 95.3%

查理·麥克林托克 2.4%

Shannon Lundgren <1%

Polymarket

$24,484 交易量

Joe Mitchell 95.3%

查理·麥克林托克 2.4%

Shannon Lundgren <1%

Polymarket

$24,484 交易量

Joe Mitchell

$7,566 交易量

95%

查理·麥克林托克

$2,071 交易量

2%

Shannon Lundgren

$14,848 交易量

<1%

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the IA-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on June 2, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Joe Mitchell maintains a commanding lead in the Iowa 2nd District Republican primary, with traders assigning him over 95 percent probability of winning the June 2, 2026 nomination. His position stems from an early endorsement by former President Donald Trump, a substantial fundraising edge over state Sen. Charlie McClintock and state Rep. Shannon Lundgren, and prior legislative experience in the Iowa House. The open-seat contest, created after Rep. Ashley Hinson shifted to the Senate race, has seen limited movement in recent weeks. A late surge by a rival would require major shifts in endorsements or unexpected campaign developments to alter the current trader consensus reflected in these odds.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the IA-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on June 2, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
交易量
$24,484
結束日期
2026-06-02
市場開放時間
Dec 18, 2025, 3:16 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the IA-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on June 2, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the IA-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on June 2, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Joe Mitchell maintains a commanding lead in the Iowa 2nd District Republican primary, with traders assigning him over 95 percent probability of winning the June 2, 2026 nomination. His position stems from an early endorsement by former President Donald Trump, a substantial fundraising edge over state Sen. Charlie McClintock and state Rep. Shannon Lundgren, and prior legislative experience in the Iowa House. The open-seat contest, created after Rep. Ashley Hinson shifted to the Senate race, has seen limited movement in recent weeks. A late surge by a rival would require major shifts in endorsements or unexpected campaign developments to alter the current trader consensus reflected in these odds.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the IA-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on June 2, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
交易量
$24,484
結束日期
2026-06-02
市場開放時間
Dec 18, 2025, 3:16 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the IA-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on June 2, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

警惕外部連結哦。

Frequently Asked Questions

"IA-02共和黨初選獲勝者" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 3 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Joe Mitchell" at 95%, followed by "查理·麥克林托克" at 2%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 95¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 95% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "IA-02共和黨初選獲勝者" has generated $24.5K in total trading volume since the market launched on Dec 18, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "IA-02共和黨初選獲勝者," browse the 3 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "IA-02共和黨初選獲勝者" is "Joe Mitchell" at 95%, meaning the market assigns a 95% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "查理·麥克林托克" at 2%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "IA-02共和黨初選獲勝者" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.