Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei was assassinated in a U.S.-Israeli airstrike on February 28, 2026, during the Iran war, prompting the Assembly of Experts to select his son Mojtaba Khamenei as successor in a unanimous March vote. This transition occurred amid strikes that eliminated multiple senior IRGC commanders and security officials, shifting influence toward a younger, hardline military cadre while preserving regime continuity. Trader probabilities for additional leadership change by set deadlines reflect the post-war stabilization, with Mojtaba's formal role and distributed power among figures like the new IRGC leadership reducing near-term succession risks. Ongoing diplomatic frictions, potential escalation signals, and internal consolidation efforts remain the primary variables that could alter implied odds ahead of resolution dates.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於$23,395,217 交易量
2027-06-30
8月15日
<1%
8月22日
1%
8月31日
3%
9月30日
7%
10月31日
11%
11月30日
14%
12月31日
19%
2027年6月30日
25%
$23,395,217 交易量
8月15日
$52,624 交易量
<1%
8月22日
$22,316 交易量
1%
8月31日
$1,126,232 交易量
3%
9月30日
$431,462 交易量
7%
10月31日
$7,555 交易量
11%
11月30日
$8,923 交易量
14%
12月31日
$3,967,645 交易量
19%
2027年6月30日
$232,084 交易量
25%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei was assassinated in a U.S.-Israeli airstrike on February 28, 2026, during the Iran war, prompting the Assembly of Experts to select his son Mojtaba Khamenei as successor in a unanimous March vote. This transition occurred amid strikes that eliminated multiple senior IRGC commanders and security officials, shifting influence toward a younger, hardline military cadre while preserving regime continuity. Trader probabilities for additional leadership change by set deadlines reflect the post-war stabilization, with Mojtaba's formal role and distributed power among figures like the new IRGC leadership reducing near-term succession risks. Ongoing diplomatic frictions, potential escalation signals, and internal consolidation efforts remain the primary variables that could alter implied odds ahead of resolution dates.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
市場開放時間： Jun 29, 2026, 7:42 PM ET
交易量
$23,395,217結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Jun 29, 2026, 7:42 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei was assassinated in a U.S.-Israeli airstrike on February 28, 2026, during the Iran war, prompting the Assembly of Experts to select his son Mojtaba Khamenei as successor in a unanimous March vote. This transition occurred amid strikes that eliminated multiple senior IRGC commanders and security officials, shifting influence toward a younger, hardline military cadre while preserving regime continuity. Trader probabilities for additional leadership change by set deadlines reflect the post-war stabilization, with Mojtaba's formal role and distributed power among figures like the new IRGC leadership reducing near-term succession risks. Ongoing diplomatic frictions, potential escalation signals, and internal consolidation efforts remain the primary variables that could alter implied odds ahead of resolution dates.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$23,395,217結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Jun 29, 2026, 7:42 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei was assassinated in a U.S.-Israeli airstrike on February 28, 2026, during the Iran war, prompting the Assembly of Experts to select his son Mojtaba Khamenei as successor in a unanimous March vote. This transition occurred amid strikes that eliminated multiple senior IRGC commanders and security officials, shifting influence toward a younger, hardline military cadre while preserving regime continuity. Trader probabilities for additional leadership change by set deadlines reflect the post-war stabilization, with Mojtaba's formal role and distributed power among figures like the new IRGC leadership reducing near-term succession risks. Ongoing diplomatic frictions, potential escalation signals, and internal consolidation efforts remain the primary variables that could alter implied odds ahead of resolution dates.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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