**Current forecasts from models such as GFS indicate a minimum temperature near 20°C for Madrid on September 7, 2026, under clear skies and light northeasterly winds that favor moderate radiative cooling overnight.** Daytime highs are expected near 35–37°C, with dew points in the mid-teens Celsius supporting efficient heat loss after sunset but limiting deeper cooling. This aligns with the market-implied 56.5% probability on 20°C or below, reflecting trader consensus on model consensus rather than any anomalous cold-air outbreak. Historical September 7 lows average 16.8°C, yet recent patterns show warmer overnight readings amid persistent high pressure. Updated model runs and official agency guidance on the 7th will be key data points for refining these implied odds.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於9月7日馬德裏最低氣溫？
9月7日馬德裏最低氣溫？
25°C 15%
24°C 14%
26°C 14%
27°C 14%
最新
最新
2026-09-07
20°C或以下
49%
21°C
14%
22°C
9%
23°C
2%
24°C
14%
25°C
15%
26°C
14%
27°C
14%
28°C
6%
29°C
3%
30°C或更高
5%
25°C 15%
24°C 14%
26°C 14%
27°C 14%
最新
最新
2026-09-07
20°C或以下
$25 交易量
49%
21°C
$47 交易量
14%
22°C
$0 交易量
9%
23°C
$0 交易量
2%
24°C
$0 交易量
14%
25°C
$0 交易量
15%
26°C
$0 交易量
14%
27°C
$0 交易量
14%
28°C
$0 交易量
6%
29°C
$0 交易量
3%
30°C或更高
$0 交易量
5%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Current forecasts from models such as GFS indicate a minimum temperature near 20°C for Madrid on September 7, 2026, under clear skies and light northeasterly winds that favor moderate radiative cooling overnight.**
Daytime highs are expected near 35–37°C, with dew points in the mid-teens Celsius supporting efficient heat loss after sunset but limiting deeper cooling. This aligns with the market-implied 56.5% probability on 20°C or below, reflecting trader consensus on model consensus rather than any anomalous cold-air outbreak. Historical September 7 lows average 16.8°C, yet recent patterns show warmer overnight readings amid persistent high pressure. Updated model runs and official agency guidance on the 7th will be key data points for refining these implied odds.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間： Sep 5, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
交易量
$72結束日期
2026-09-07市場開放時間
Sep 5, 2026, 12:30 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Current forecasts from models such as GFS indicate a minimum temperature near 20°C for Madrid on September 7, 2026, under clear skies and light northeasterly winds that favor moderate radiative cooling overnight.**
Daytime highs are expected near 35–37°C, with dew points in the mid-teens Celsius supporting efficient heat loss after sunset but limiting deeper cooling. This aligns with the market-implied 56.5% probability on 20°C or below, reflecting trader consensus on model consensus rather than any anomalous cold-air outbreak. Historical September 7 lows average 16.8°C, yet recent patterns show warmer overnight readings amid persistent high pressure. Updated model runs and official agency guidance on the 7th will be key data points for refining these implied odds.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$72結束日期
2026-09-07市場開放時間
Sep 5, 2026, 12:30 AM ET**Current forecasts from models such as GFS indicate a minimum temperature near 20°C for Madrid on September 7, 2026, under clear skies and light northeasterly winds that favor moderate radiative cooling overnight.** Daytime highs are expected near 35–37°C, with dew points in the mid-teens Celsius supporting efficient heat loss after sunset but limiting deeper cooling. This aligns with the market-implied 56.5% probability on 20°C or below, reflecting trader consensus on model consensus rather than any anomalous cold-air outbreak. Historical September 7 lows average 16.8°C, yet recent patterns show warmer overnight readings amid persistent high pressure. Updated model runs and official agency guidance on the 7th will be key data points for refining these implied odds.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions