Recent short-range forecasts from AEMET and ensemble runs of the ECMWF and GFS models indicate Madrid's minimum temperature on September 5 will most likely fall between 23–26 °C under continued high pressure and warm southerly flow, with increasing overnight cloud cover providing modest radiative cooling. This consensus has held steady through the latest model cycles, supporting the 70 % market-implied probability for 24 °C or below. Persistent heatwave conditions have elevated overnight lows well above the long-term September average of roughly 17 °C, while any further increase in low-level moisture or wind could nudge readings slightly higher and explain the secondary probability mass around 25 °C. Updated guidance expected from AEMET later today will refine resolution thresholds.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於9月5日馬德裏最低氣溫？
9月5日馬德裏最低氣溫？
24°C或以下 70%
25°C 25%
27°C 15%
28°C 15%
最新
最新
2026-09-05
24°C或以下
70%
25°C
25%
26°C
2%
27°C
15%
28°C
15%
29°C
15%
30°C
10%
31°C
8%
32°C
9%
33°C
8%
34°C或更高
9%
24°C或以下 70%
25°C 25%
27°C 15%
28°C 15%
最新
最新
2026-09-05
24°C或以下
$0 交易量
70%
25°C
$14 交易量
25%
26°C
$0 交易量
2%
27°C
$0 交易量
15%
28°C
$0 交易量
15%
29°C
$0 交易量
15%
30°C
$0 交易量
10%
31°C
$0 交易量
8%
32°C
$0 交易量
9%
33°C
$0 交易量
8%
34°C或更高
$0 交易量
9%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent short-range forecasts from AEMET and ensemble runs of the ECMWF and GFS models indicate Madrid's minimum temperature on September 5 will most likely fall between 23–26 °C under continued high pressure and warm southerly flow, with increasing overnight cloud cover providing modest radiative cooling. This consensus has held steady through the latest model cycles, supporting the 70 % market-implied probability for 24 °C or below. Persistent heatwave conditions have elevated overnight lows well above the long-term September average of roughly 17 °C, while any further increase in low-level moisture or wind could nudge readings slightly higher and explain the secondary probability mass around 25 °C. Updated guidance expected from AEMET later today will refine resolution thresholds.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間： Sep 3, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
交易量
$14結束日期
2026-09-05市場開放時間
Sep 3, 2026, 12:30 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent short-range forecasts from AEMET and ensemble runs of the ECMWF and GFS models indicate Madrid's minimum temperature on September 5 will most likely fall between 23–26 °C under continued high pressure and warm southerly flow, with increasing overnight cloud cover providing modest radiative cooling. This consensus has held steady through the latest model cycles, supporting the 70 % market-implied probability for 24 °C or below. Persistent heatwave conditions have elevated overnight lows well above the long-term September average of roughly 17 °C, while any further increase in low-level moisture or wind could nudge readings slightly higher and explain the secondary probability mass around 25 °C. Updated guidance expected from AEMET later today will refine resolution thresholds.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$14結束日期
2026-09-05市場開放時間
Sep 3, 2026, 12:30 AM ETRecent short-range forecasts from AEMET and ensemble runs of the ECMWF and GFS models indicate Madrid's minimum temperature on September 5 will most likely fall between 23–26 °C under continued high pressure and warm southerly flow, with increasing overnight cloud cover providing modest radiative cooling. This consensus has held steady through the latest model cycles, supporting the 70 % market-implied probability for 24 °C or below. Persistent heatwave conditions have elevated overnight lows well above the long-term September average of roughly 17 °C, while any further increase in low-level moisture or wind could nudge readings slightly higher and explain the secondary probability mass around 25 °C. Updated guidance expected from AEMET later today will refine resolution thresholds.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions