Recent forecast guidance from the Japan Meteorological Agency and ensemble models highlights increased cloud cover and frequent scattered showers for Tokyo on September 4, driven by a passing weather system that is expected to limit solar heating and suppress daytime maxima below recent norms of 29–30 °C. This setup favors maximum temperatures clustered in the 25–28 °C range, with the market-implied emphasis on 27 °C (35.5 %) and adjacent outcomes reflecting trader assessment of model spread, precipitation timing, and potential for localized clearing. Historical analogs for similar late-summer frontal passages show comparable cooling of 3–5 °C relative to clear-sky baselines, while ongoing model updates through the next 24–48 hours remain the key variable that could shift probabilities if rainfall totals or wind patterns deviate.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於9月4日東京氣溫最高？
9月4日東京氣溫最高？
27°C 36%
28°C 24%
26°C 21%
29°C 11%
最新
最新
2026-09-04
21°C或以下
1%
22°C
1%
23°C
1%
24°C
4%
25°C
7%
26°C
21%
27°C
36%
28°C
24%
29°C
11%
30°C
3%
31°C或更高
2%
27°C 36%
28°C 24%
26°C 21%
29°C 11%
最新
最新
2026-09-04
21°C或以下
$0 交易量
1%
22°C
$19 交易量
1%
23°C
$310 交易量
1%
24°C
$638 交易量
4%
25°C
$425 交易量
7%
26°C
$2,150 交易量
21%
27°C
$173 交易量
36%
28°C
$306 交易量
24%
29°C
$103 交易量
11%
30°C
$64 交易量
3%
31°C或更高
$165 交易量
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast guidance from the Japan Meteorological Agency and ensemble models highlights increased cloud cover and frequent scattered showers for Tokyo on September 4, driven by a passing weather system that is expected to limit solar heating and suppress daytime maxima below recent norms of 29–30 °C. This setup favors maximum temperatures clustered in the 25–28 °C range, with the market-implied emphasis on 27 °C (35.5 %) and adjacent outcomes reflecting trader assessment of model spread, precipitation timing, and potential for localized clearing. Historical analogs for similar late-summer frontal passages show comparable cooling of 3–5 °C relative to clear-sky baselines, while ongoing model updates through the next 24–48 hours remain the key variable that could shift probabilities if rainfall totals or wind patterns deviate.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間： Sep 2, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
交易量
$4,354結束日期
2026-09-04市場開放時間
Sep 2, 2026, 12:56 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast guidance from the Japan Meteorological Agency and ensemble models highlights increased cloud cover and frequent scattered showers for Tokyo on September 4, driven by a passing weather system that is expected to limit solar heating and suppress daytime maxima below recent norms of 29–30 °C. This setup favors maximum temperatures clustered in the 25–28 °C range, with the market-implied emphasis on 27 °C (35.5 %) and adjacent outcomes reflecting trader assessment of model spread, precipitation timing, and potential for localized clearing. Historical analogs for similar late-summer frontal passages show comparable cooling of 3–5 °C relative to clear-sky baselines, while ongoing model updates through the next 24–48 hours remain the key variable that could shift probabilities if rainfall totals or wind patterns deviate.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$4,354結束日期
2026-09-04市場開放時間
Sep 2, 2026, 12:56 AM ETRecent forecast guidance from the Japan Meteorological Agency and ensemble models highlights increased cloud cover and frequent scattered showers for Tokyo on September 4, driven by a passing weather system that is expected to limit solar heating and suppress daytime maxima below recent norms of 29–30 °C. This setup favors maximum temperatures clustered in the 25–28 °C range, with the market-implied emphasis on 27 °C (35.5 %) and adjacent outcomes reflecting trader assessment of model spread, precipitation timing, and potential for localized clearing. Historical analogs for similar late-summer frontal passages show comparable cooling of 3–5 °C relative to clear-sky baselines, while ongoing model updates through the next 24–48 hours remain the key variable that could shift probabilities if rainfall totals or wind patterns deviate.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions