Recent short-range forecast models and AEMET guidance point to a stable high-pressure ridge advecting warm air over central Spain, supporting maximum temperatures of 36–37°C in Madrid on September 2 under clear skies, light southerly winds, and low humidity. This setup aligns with the market’s strongest implied probabilities on 37°C (52%) and 36°C (38%), reflecting trader consensus around ensemble outputs showing afternoon peaks in that narrow range. Historical early-September climatology for the region averages near 33–34°C, so the current anomaly reinforces elevated readings without exceeding 38°C in most guidance. The next AEMET daily update and refined ECMWF/GFS runs will provide the key data shift before resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於9月2日馬德裏氣溫最高？
9月2日馬德裏氣溫最高？
36°C 41%
37°C 39%
35°C 6%
38°C 6%
最新
最新
2026-09-02
31°C or below
<1%
32°C
1%
33°C
1%
34°C
2%
35°C
6%
36°C
48%
37°C
39%
38°C
6%
39°C
1%
40°C
<1%
41°C or higher
<1%
36°C 41%
37°C 39%
35°C 6%
38°C 6%
最新
最新
2026-09-02
31°C or below
$294 交易量
<1%
32°C
$243 交易量
1%
33°C
$83 交易量
1%
34°C
$81 交易量
2%
35°C
$128 交易量
6%
36°C
$475 交易量
48%
37°C
$745 交易量
39%
38°C
$168 交易量
6%
39°C
$28 交易量
1%
40°C
$65 交易量
<1%
41°C or higher
$64 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent short-range forecast models and AEMET guidance point to a stable high-pressure ridge advecting warm air over central Spain, supporting maximum temperatures of 36–37°C in Madrid on September 2 under clear skies, light southerly winds, and low humidity. This setup aligns with the market’s strongest implied probabilities on 37°C (52%) and 36°C (38%), reflecting trader consensus around ensemble outputs showing afternoon peaks in that narrow range. Historical early-September climatology for the region averages near 33–34°C, so the current anomaly reinforces elevated readings without exceeding 38°C in most guidance. The next AEMET daily update and refined ECMWF/GFS runs will provide the key data shift before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間： Aug 31, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
交易量
$2,237結束日期
2026-09-02市場開放時間
Aug 31, 2026, 12:56 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent short-range forecast models and AEMET guidance point to a stable high-pressure ridge advecting warm air over central Spain, supporting maximum temperatures of 36–37°C in Madrid on September 2 under clear skies, light southerly winds, and low humidity. This setup aligns with the market’s strongest implied probabilities on 37°C (52%) and 36°C (38%), reflecting trader consensus around ensemble outputs showing afternoon peaks in that narrow range. Historical early-September climatology for the region averages near 33–34°C, so the current anomaly reinforces elevated readings without exceeding 38°C in most guidance. The next AEMET daily update and refined ECMWF/GFS runs will provide the key data shift before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$2,237結束日期
2026-09-02市場開放時間
Aug 31, 2026, 12:56 AM ETRecent short-range forecast models and AEMET guidance point to a stable high-pressure ridge advecting warm air over central Spain, supporting maximum temperatures of 36–37°C in Madrid on September 2 under clear skies, light southerly winds, and low humidity. This setup aligns with the market’s strongest implied probabilities on 37°C (52%) and 36°C (38%), reflecting trader consensus around ensemble outputs showing afternoon peaks in that narrow range. Historical early-September climatology for the region averages near 33–34°C, so the current anomaly reinforces elevated readings without exceeding 38°C in most guidance. The next AEMET daily update and refined ECMWF/GFS runs will provide the key data shift before resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions