Recent forecasts from models including ECMWF and GFS, along with AEMET guidance, indicate Madrid will experience clear skies, high pressure, and light southerly or variable winds on August 31, supporting afternoon highs centered on 33–34 °C under typical late-summer continental conditions. This consensus aligns with the market’s heaviest trading on 34 °C (56.5 % implied probability) and 35 °C (26 %), while the modest 17 % on 33 °C reflects residual model spread and the possibility of slightly cooler boundary-layer mixing. No significant heat advection or subsidence strengthening is projected in the next 48 hours, keeping extremes above 36 °C or below 32 °C at low probability. Updated model runs and official briefings on August 30 will provide the next key data points for resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於8月31日馬德裏氣溫最高？
8月31日馬德裏氣溫最高？
34°C 57%
35°C 24%
33°C 19%
32°C 3%
最新
最新
2026-08-31
29°C or below
<1%
30°C
<1%
31°C
1%
32°C
3%
33°C
19%
34°C
57%
35°C
24%
36°C
<1%
37°C
<1%
38°C
<1%
39°C or higher
<1%
34°C 57%
35°C 24%
33°C 19%
32°C 3%
最新
最新
2026-08-31
29°C or below
$199 交易量
<1%
30°C
$125 交易量
<1%
31°C
$61 交易量
1%
32°C
$184 交易量
3%
33°C
$307 交易量
19%
34°C
$558 交易量
57%
35°C
$1,368 交易量
24%
36°C
$225 交易量
<1%
37°C
$78 交易量
<1%
38°C
$92 交易量
<1%
39°C or higher
$88 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from models including ECMWF and GFS, along with AEMET guidance, indicate Madrid will experience clear skies, high pressure, and light southerly or variable winds on August 31, supporting afternoon highs centered on 33–34 °C under typical late-summer continental conditions. This consensus aligns with the market’s heaviest trading on 34 °C (56.5 % implied probability) and 35 °C (26 %), while the modest 17 % on 33 °C reflects residual model spread and the possibility of slightly cooler boundary-layer mixing. No significant heat advection or subsidence strengthening is projected in the next 48 hours, keeping extremes above 36 °C or below 32 °C at low probability. Updated model runs and official briefings on August 30 will provide the next key data points for resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間： Aug 29, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
交易量
$3,269結束日期
2026-08-31市場開放時間
Aug 29, 2026, 12:57 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from models including ECMWF and GFS, along with AEMET guidance, indicate Madrid will experience clear skies, high pressure, and light southerly or variable winds on August 31, supporting afternoon highs centered on 33–34 °C under typical late-summer continental conditions. This consensus aligns with the market’s heaviest trading on 34 °C (56.5 % implied probability) and 35 °C (26 %), while the modest 17 % on 33 °C reflects residual model spread and the possibility of slightly cooler boundary-layer mixing. No significant heat advection or subsidence strengthening is projected in the next 48 hours, keeping extremes above 36 °C or below 32 °C at low probability. Updated model runs and official briefings on August 30 will provide the next key data points for resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$3,269結束日期
2026-08-31市場開放時間
Aug 29, 2026, 12:57 AM ETRecent forecasts from models including ECMWF and GFS, along with AEMET guidance, indicate Madrid will experience clear skies, high pressure, and light southerly or variable winds on August 31, supporting afternoon highs centered on 33–34 °C under typical late-summer continental conditions. This consensus aligns with the market’s heaviest trading on 34 °C (56.5 % implied probability) and 35 °C (26 %), while the modest 17 % on 33 °C reflects residual model spread and the possibility of slightly cooler boundary-layer mixing. No significant heat advection or subsidence strengthening is projected in the next 48 hours, keeping extremes above 36 °C or below 32 °C at low probability. Updated model runs and official briefings on August 30 will provide the next key data points for resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions