**Clear skies, light winds, and radiational cooling under high pressure are positioning Madrid's minimum temperature on August 31, 2026, toward the lower end of seasonal norms.** Official and model guidance from sources including the Met Office, WeatherBug, and Yr.no consistently point to overnight lows of roughly 19–20°C (around 66–68°F), with some ensemble runs and statistical outlooks (e.g., Globalmeteo) dipping to 16–17°C. This aligns with the market's leading outcome of 16°C or below at 63% implied probability. Recent developments reinforce this: late August 2026 has featured below-average daytime highs (e.g., a notably cool 21°C max on August 28) and progressively lower minima (12.4°C on the 28th, 15.7°C on the 29th), driven by a cooler-than-typical air mass. Madrid's elevation (~650 m) and continental setting amplify nighttime cooling when skies remain clear and winds stay light, as currently forecast. Historical averages for the date hover near 18°C lows, but the current pattern favors values at or below that threshold. Model consensus remains the primary driver of trader positioning, with the high probability on 16°C or below reflecting skin-in-the-game assessment of these conditions holding through the final hours. Minor upward revisions remain possible if winds increase or cloud cover develops overnight, but current data favor the cooler side of the distribution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於馬德裏8月31日的最低溫度？
馬德裏8月31日的最低溫度？
16°C or below 67%
17°C 28%
19°C 26%
18°C 25%
最新
最新
2026-08-31
16°C or below
67%
17°C
28%
18°C
25%
19°C
26%
20°C
14%
21°C
2%
22°C
1%
23°C
1%
24°C
1%
25°C
1%
26°C or higher
1%
16°C or below 67%
17°C 28%
19°C 26%
18°C 25%
最新
最新
2026-08-31
16°C or below
$8 交易量
67%
17°C
$0 交易量
28%
18°C
$0 交易量
25%
19°C
$20 交易量
26%
20°C
$0 交易量
14%
21°C
$0 交易量
2%
22°C
$5 交易量
1%
23°C
$5 交易量
1%
24°C
$0 交易量
1%
25°C
$0 交易量
1%
26°C or higher
$0 交易量
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Clear skies, light winds, and radiational cooling under high pressure are positioning Madrid's minimum temperature on August 31, 2026, toward the lower end of seasonal norms.** Official and model guidance from sources including the Met Office, WeatherBug, and Yr.no consistently point to overnight lows of roughly 19–20°C (around 66–68°F), with some ensemble runs and statistical outlooks (e.g., Globalmeteo) dipping to 16–17°C. This aligns with the market's leading outcome of 16°C or below at 63% implied probability.
Recent developments reinforce this: late August 2026 has featured below-average daytime highs (e.g., a notably cool 21°C max on August 28) and progressively lower minima (12.4°C on the 28th, 15.7°C on the 29th), driven by a cooler-than-typical air mass. Madrid's elevation (~650 m) and continental setting amplify nighttime cooling when skies remain clear and winds stay light, as currently forecast. Historical averages for the date hover near 18°C lows, but the current pattern favors values at or below that threshold.
Model consensus remains the primary driver of trader positioning, with the high probability on 16°C or below reflecting skin-in-the-game assessment of these conditions holding through the final hours. Minor upward revisions remain possible if winds increase or cloud cover develops overnight, but current data favor the cooler side of the distribution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間： Aug 29, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
交易量
$38結束日期
2026-08-31市場開放時間
Aug 29, 2026, 12:30 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Clear skies, light winds, and radiational cooling under high pressure are positioning Madrid's minimum temperature on August 31, 2026, toward the lower end of seasonal norms.** Official and model guidance from sources including the Met Office, WeatherBug, and Yr.no consistently point to overnight lows of roughly 19–20°C (around 66–68°F), with some ensemble runs and statistical outlooks (e.g., Globalmeteo) dipping to 16–17°C. This aligns with the market's leading outcome of 16°C or below at 63% implied probability.
Recent developments reinforce this: late August 2026 has featured below-average daytime highs (e.g., a notably cool 21°C max on August 28) and progressively lower minima (12.4°C on the 28th, 15.7°C on the 29th), driven by a cooler-than-typical air mass. Madrid's elevation (~650 m) and continental setting amplify nighttime cooling when skies remain clear and winds stay light, as currently forecast. Historical averages for the date hover near 18°C lows, but the current pattern favors values at or below that threshold.
Model consensus remains the primary driver of trader positioning, with the high probability on 16°C or below reflecting skin-in-the-game assessment of these conditions holding through the final hours. Minor upward revisions remain possible if winds increase or cloud cover develops overnight, but current data favor the cooler side of the distribution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$38結束日期
2026-08-31市場開放時間
Aug 29, 2026, 12:30 AM ET**Clear skies, light winds, and radiational cooling under high pressure are positioning Madrid's minimum temperature on August 31, 2026, toward the lower end of seasonal norms.** Official and model guidance from sources including the Met Office, WeatherBug, and Yr.no consistently point to overnight lows of roughly 19–20°C (around 66–68°F), with some ensemble runs and statistical outlooks (e.g., Globalmeteo) dipping to 16–17°C. This aligns with the market's leading outcome of 16°C or below at 63% implied probability. Recent developments reinforce this: late August 2026 has featured below-average daytime highs (e.g., a notably cool 21°C max on August 28) and progressively lower minima (12.4°C on the 28th, 15.7°C on the 29th), driven by a cooler-than-typical air mass. Madrid's elevation (~650 m) and continental setting amplify nighttime cooling when skies remain clear and winds stay light, as currently forecast. Historical averages for the date hover near 18°C lows, but the current pattern favors values at or below that threshold. Model consensus remains the primary driver of trader positioning, with the high probability on 16°C or below reflecting skin-in-the-game assessment of these conditions holding through the final hours. Minor upward revisions remain possible if winds increase or cloud cover develops overnight, but current data favor the cooler side of the distribution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions