Recent official forecasts from sources including AEMET and numerical models indicate clear skies and light winds over Madrid on August 30, 2026, favoring strong nocturnal radiative cooling under high pressure. This setup typically allows the overnight minimum—usually occurring around dawn—to reach 16–19 °C, with some ensemble members showing slightly cooler readings near 15 °C due to drier boundary-layer air at the city’s 650 m elevation. The 37 % market-implied probability on 13 °C or below reflects trader weighting of model spread and historical late-August lows, while the clustering around 14–16 °C captures consensus guidance for a mild but not exceptional night. No significant frontal systems or moisture advection are expected to moderate the drop before resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於8月30日馬德裏最低氣溫？
8月30日馬德裏最低氣溫？
13°C or below 35%
14°C 27%
15°C 27%
16°C 27%
最新
最新
2026-08-30
13°C or below
35%
14°C
27%
15°C
27%
16°C
27%
17°C
15%
18°C
5%
19°C
5%
20°C
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C or higher
<1%
13°C or below 35%
14°C 27%
15°C 27%
16°C 27%
最新
最新
2026-08-30
13°C or below
$7 交易量
35%
14°C
$0 交易量
27%
15°C
$0 交易量
27%
16°C
$0 交易量
27%
17°C
$0 交易量
15%
18°C
$0 交易量
5%
19°C
$0 交易量
5%
20°C
$0 交易量
<1%
21°C
$5 交易量
<1%
22°C
$5 交易量
<1%
23°C or higher
$276 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent official forecasts from sources including AEMET and numerical models indicate clear skies and light winds over Madrid on August 30, 2026, favoring strong nocturnal radiative cooling under high pressure. This setup typically allows the overnight minimum—usually occurring around dawn—to reach 16–19 °C, with some ensemble members showing slightly cooler readings near 15 °C due to drier boundary-layer air at the city’s 650 m elevation. The 37 % market-implied probability on 13 °C or below reflects trader weighting of model spread and historical late-August lows, while the clustering around 14–16 °C captures consensus guidance for a mild but not exceptional night. No significant frontal systems or moisture advection are expected to moderate the drop before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間： Aug 28, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
交易量
$292結束日期
2026-08-30市場開放時間
Aug 28, 2026, 12:30 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent official forecasts from sources including AEMET and numerical models indicate clear skies and light winds over Madrid on August 30, 2026, favoring strong nocturnal radiative cooling under high pressure. This setup typically allows the overnight minimum—usually occurring around dawn—to reach 16–19 °C, with some ensemble members showing slightly cooler readings near 15 °C due to drier boundary-layer air at the city’s 650 m elevation. The 37 % market-implied probability on 13 °C or below reflects trader weighting of model spread and historical late-August lows, while the clustering around 14–16 °C captures consensus guidance for a mild but not exceptional night. No significant frontal systems or moisture advection are expected to moderate the drop before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$292結束日期
2026-08-30市場開放時間
Aug 28, 2026, 12:30 AM ETRecent official forecasts from sources including AEMET and numerical models indicate clear skies and light winds over Madrid on August 30, 2026, favoring strong nocturnal radiative cooling under high pressure. This setup typically allows the overnight minimum—usually occurring around dawn—to reach 16–19 °C, with some ensemble members showing slightly cooler readings near 15 °C due to drier boundary-layer air at the city’s 650 m elevation. The 37 % market-implied probability on 13 °C or below reflects trader weighting of model spread and historical late-August lows, while the clustering around 14–16 °C captures consensus guidance for a mild but not exceptional night. No significant frontal systems or moisture advection are expected to moderate the drop before resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions