**Forecast consensus from models including ECMWF, GFS, and national services places Amsterdam’s maximum temperature on August 31 firmly in the 19–20 °C range.** Multiple sources, including KNMI-aligned outputs and Met Office guidance, show daytime peaks near 19 °C amid widespread cloud cover, scattered showers or thunderstorms, and moderate westerly winds that advect cooler maritime air across the North Sea region. These conditions suppress surface heating by limiting solar insolation and promoting mixing with cooler air aloft. **Trader positioning reflects this tight clustering, with 20 °C holding a modest lead at 50.5 % implied probability and 19 °C close behind at 40 %.** The slight preference for 20 °C likely stems from ensemble spread showing brief afternoon clearing or marginally stronger insolation in some runs, while the 40 % on 19 °C accounts for the high likelihood of persistent rain and thicker cloud keeping readings at or below that level. Historical late-August normals near 21–22 °C provide context, but the current synoptic setup—a persistent trough and active frontal zone—has shifted the distribution downward by several degrees. **Key resolution thresholds center on the official maximum recorded at the primary station (typically Schiphol).** Upcoming model updates through the evening of August 30 and early August 31 runs will refine the exact peak timing and any last-minute adjustments to cloud or precipitation timing, offering the clearest near-term catalysts for market movement.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於8月31日阿姆斯特丹的最高溫度？
8月31日阿姆斯特丹的最高溫度？
20°C 51%
19°C 40%
21°C 6%
18°C 3%
最新
最新
2026-08-31
14°C或以下
<1%
15°C
<1%
16°C
<1%
17°C
<1%
18°C
3%
19°C
40%
20°C
51%
21°C
6%
22°C
3%
23°C
<1%
24°C或以上
1%
20°C 51%
19°C 40%
21°C 6%
18°C 3%
最新
最新
2026-08-31
14°C或以下
$60 交易量
<1%
15°C
$60 交易量
<1%
16°C
$280 交易量
<1%
17°C
$175 交易量
<1%
18°C
$398 交易量
3%
19°C
$401 交易量
40%
20°C
$539 交易量
51%
21°C
$423 交易量
6%
22°C
$277 交易量
3%
23°C
$130 交易量
<1%
24°C或以上
$152 交易量
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast consensus from models including ECMWF, GFS, and national services places Amsterdam’s maximum temperature on August 31 firmly in the 19–20 °C range.** Multiple sources, including KNMI-aligned outputs and Met Office guidance, show daytime peaks near 19 °C amid widespread cloud cover, scattered showers or thunderstorms, and moderate westerly winds that advect cooler maritime air across the North Sea region. These conditions suppress surface heating by limiting solar insolation and promoting mixing with cooler air aloft.
**Trader positioning reflects this tight clustering, with 20 °C holding a modest lead at 50.5 % implied probability and 19 °C close behind at 40 %.** The slight preference for 20 °C likely stems from ensemble spread showing brief afternoon clearing or marginally stronger insolation in some runs, while the 40 % on 19 °C accounts for the high likelihood of persistent rain and thicker cloud keeping readings at or below that level. Historical late-August normals near 21–22 °C provide context, but the current synoptic setup—a persistent trough and active frontal zone—has shifted the distribution downward by several degrees.
**Key resolution thresholds center on the official maximum recorded at the primary station (typically Schiphol).** Upcoming model updates through the evening of August 30 and early August 31 runs will refine the exact peak timing and any last-minute adjustments to cloud or precipitation timing, offering the clearest near-term catalysts for market movement.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間： Aug 29, 2026, 12:58 AM ET
交易量
$2,897結束日期
2026-08-31市場開放時間
Aug 29, 2026, 12:58 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast consensus from models including ECMWF, GFS, and national services places Amsterdam’s maximum temperature on August 31 firmly in the 19–20 °C range.** Multiple sources, including KNMI-aligned outputs and Met Office guidance, show daytime peaks near 19 °C amid widespread cloud cover, scattered showers or thunderstorms, and moderate westerly winds that advect cooler maritime air across the North Sea region. These conditions suppress surface heating by limiting solar insolation and promoting mixing with cooler air aloft.
**Trader positioning reflects this tight clustering, with 20 °C holding a modest lead at 50.5 % implied probability and 19 °C close behind at 40 %.** The slight preference for 20 °C likely stems from ensemble spread showing brief afternoon clearing or marginally stronger insolation in some runs, while the 40 % on 19 °C accounts for the high likelihood of persistent rain and thicker cloud keeping readings at or below that level. Historical late-August normals near 21–22 °C provide context, but the current synoptic setup—a persistent trough and active frontal zone—has shifted the distribution downward by several degrees.
**Key resolution thresholds center on the official maximum recorded at the primary station (typically Schiphol).** Upcoming model updates through the evening of August 30 and early August 31 runs will refine the exact peak timing and any last-minute adjustments to cloud or precipitation timing, offering the clearest near-term catalysts for market movement.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$2,897結束日期
2026-08-31市場開放時間
Aug 29, 2026, 12:58 AM ET**Forecast consensus from models including ECMWF, GFS, and national services places Amsterdam’s maximum temperature on August 31 firmly in the 19–20 °C range.** Multiple sources, including KNMI-aligned outputs and Met Office guidance, show daytime peaks near 19 °C amid widespread cloud cover, scattered showers or thunderstorms, and moderate westerly winds that advect cooler maritime air across the North Sea region. These conditions suppress surface heating by limiting solar insolation and promoting mixing with cooler air aloft. **Trader positioning reflects this tight clustering, with 20 °C holding a modest lead at 50.5 % implied probability and 19 °C close behind at 40 %.** The slight preference for 20 °C likely stems from ensemble spread showing brief afternoon clearing or marginally stronger insolation in some runs, while the 40 % on 19 °C accounts for the high likelihood of persistent rain and thicker cloud keeping readings at or below that level. Historical late-August normals near 21–22 °C provide context, but the current synoptic setup—a persistent trough and active frontal zone—has shifted the distribution downward by several degrees. **Key resolution thresholds center on the official maximum recorded at the primary station (typically Schiphol).** Upcoming model updates through the evening of August 30 and early August 31 runs will refine the exact peak timing and any last-minute adjustments to cloud or precipitation timing, offering the clearest near-term catalysts for market movement.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions