Recent weather model runs and short-range forecasts for Munich show a mild late-summer pattern under westerly flow, with daytime highs on August 31 expected near 23–25 °C. Multiple sources indicate partly cloudy to showery conditions that could cap peak readings, consistent with the historical late-August average high of roughly 22–23 °C at the Munich station. The market’s heavy weighting toward 24 °C (30 %) and 25 °C (44.5 %) reflects this consensus, while the modest probabilities assigned to 26 °C or higher acknowledge limited upside potential if skies clear earlier than expected. Traders appear to be pricing in the latest guidance from global and regional models, which show no strong warm advection or blocking high that would push temperatures well above seasonal norms. Updated forecast packages and any revisions to precipitation timing remain the key near-term catalysts.