Recent forecasts from multiple models, including those aligned with AEMET guidance, indicate Madrid will experience above-normal warmth on September 1 under persistent high pressure promoting clear skies and subsidence warming. Highs are projected near 31–34°C, driven by light northeasterly or variable winds limiting mixing and the ongoing late-summer heat buildup across central Spain. Ensemble spreads reflect minor uncertainties in peak timing and any thin high-cloud effects that could trim the maximum by 1°C, while the urban heat island in the city center adds a small upward bias to official observations. This setup underpins the near-even market split between 34°C and 35°C outcomes, with traders weighting the latest model consensus and historical analogs for early-September maxima. Updated short-range runs from AEMET and ECMWF ahead of resolution will likely refine the exact threshold.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於9月1日馬德裏氣溫最高？
9月1日馬德裏氣溫最高？
35°C 47%
34°C 41%
33°C 8%
36°C 7%
最新
最新
2026-09-01
30°C or below
<1%
31°C
1%
32°C
4%
33°C
8%
34°C
41%
35°C
47%
36°C
7%
37°C
2%
38°C
<1%
39°C
<1%
40°C or higher
<1%
35°C 47%
34°C 41%
33°C 8%
36°C 7%
最新
最新
2026-09-01
30°C or below
$89 交易量
<1%
31°C
$9 交易量
1%
32°C
$5 交易量
4%
33°C
$0 交易量
8%
34°C
$86 交易量
41%
35°C
$66 交易量
47%
36°C
$7 交易量
7%
37°C
$0 交易量
2%
38°C
$0 交易量
<1%
39°C
$0 交易量
<1%
40°C or higher
$0 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from multiple models, including those aligned with AEMET guidance, indicate Madrid will experience above-normal warmth on September 1 under persistent high pressure promoting clear skies and subsidence warming. Highs are projected near 31–34°C, driven by light northeasterly or variable winds limiting mixing and the ongoing late-summer heat buildup across central Spain. Ensemble spreads reflect minor uncertainties in peak timing and any thin high-cloud effects that could trim the maximum by 1°C, while the urban heat island in the city center adds a small upward bias to official observations. This setup underpins the near-even market split between 34°C and 35°C outcomes, with traders weighting the latest model consensus and historical analogs for early-September maxima. Updated short-range runs from AEMET and ECMWF ahead of resolution will likely refine the exact threshold.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間： Aug 30, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
交易量
$262結束日期
2026-09-01市場開放時間
Aug 30, 2026, 12:57 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from multiple models, including those aligned with AEMET guidance, indicate Madrid will experience above-normal warmth on September 1 under persistent high pressure promoting clear skies and subsidence warming. Highs are projected near 31–34°C, driven by light northeasterly or variable winds limiting mixing and the ongoing late-summer heat buildup across central Spain. Ensemble spreads reflect minor uncertainties in peak timing and any thin high-cloud effects that could trim the maximum by 1°C, while the urban heat island in the city center adds a small upward bias to official observations. This setup underpins the near-even market split between 34°C and 35°C outcomes, with traders weighting the latest model consensus and historical analogs for early-September maxima. Updated short-range runs from AEMET and ECMWF ahead of resolution will likely refine the exact threshold.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$262結束日期
2026-09-01市場開放時間
Aug 30, 2026, 12:57 AM ETRecent forecasts from multiple models, including those aligned with AEMET guidance, indicate Madrid will experience above-normal warmth on September 1 under persistent high pressure promoting clear skies and subsidence warming. Highs are projected near 31–34°C, driven by light northeasterly or variable winds limiting mixing and the ongoing late-summer heat buildup across central Spain. Ensemble spreads reflect minor uncertainties in peak timing and any thin high-cloud effects that could trim the maximum by 1°C, while the urban heat island in the city center adds a small upward bias to official observations. This setup underpins the near-even market split between 34°C and 35°C outcomes, with traders weighting the latest model consensus and historical analogs for early-September maxima. Updated short-range runs from AEMET and ECMWF ahead of resolution will likely refine the exact threshold.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions