Recent forecasts from sources including the Japan Meteorological Agency and international models indicate a high around 30–32°C for Tokyo on September 3, 2026, driven by southerly flow and residual summer warmth offset by increasing cloud cover and thunderstorm chances (50–85% probability in afternoon hours). This setup favors convective cooling that limits peak insolation compared to clearer conditions on September 2, while dew points near 24–25°C sustain humidity that can suppress further warming. Model spread arises from timing of precipitation and steering patterns, creating genuine uncertainty that explains the tight clustering of market-implied probabilities around 29–32°C. Updated runs ahead of the date will refine these thresholds.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於9月3日東京氣溫最高？
9月3日東京氣溫最高？
30°C 33%
31°C 25%
29°C 16%
32°C 13%
最新
最新
2026-09-03
25°C or below
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
7%
28°C
11%
29°C
16%
30°C
33%
31°C
25%
32°C
13%
33°C
3%
34°C
3%
35°C or higher
1%
30°C 33%
31°C 25%
29°C 16%
32°C 13%
最新
最新
2026-09-03
25°C or below
$510 交易量
<1%
26°C
$207 交易量
<1%
27°C
$14 交易量
7%
28°C
$5 交易量
11%
29°C
$0 交易量
16%
30°C
$7 交易量
33%
31°C
$5 交易量
25%
32°C
$2 交易量
13%
33°C
$0 交易量
3%
34°C
$0 交易量
3%
35°C or higher
$5 交易量
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from sources including the Japan Meteorological Agency and international models indicate a high around 30–32°C for Tokyo on September 3, 2026, driven by southerly flow and residual summer warmth offset by increasing cloud cover and thunderstorm chances (50–85% probability in afternoon hours). This setup favors convective cooling that limits peak insolation compared to clearer conditions on September 2, while dew points near 24–25°C sustain humidity that can suppress further warming. Model spread arises from timing of precipitation and steering patterns, creating genuine uncertainty that explains the tight clustering of market-implied probabilities around 29–32°C. Updated runs ahead of the date will refine these thresholds.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間： Sep 1, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
交易量
$756結束日期
2026-09-03市場開放時間
Sep 1, 2026, 12:56 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from sources including the Japan Meteorological Agency and international models indicate a high around 30–32°C for Tokyo on September 3, 2026, driven by southerly flow and residual summer warmth offset by increasing cloud cover and thunderstorm chances (50–85% probability in afternoon hours). This setup favors convective cooling that limits peak insolation compared to clearer conditions on September 2, while dew points near 24–25°C sustain humidity that can suppress further warming. Model spread arises from timing of precipitation and steering patterns, creating genuine uncertainty that explains the tight clustering of market-implied probabilities around 29–32°C. Updated runs ahead of the date will refine these thresholds.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$756結束日期
2026-09-03市場開放時間
Sep 1, 2026, 12:56 AM ETRecent forecasts from sources including the Japan Meteorological Agency and international models indicate a high around 30–32°C for Tokyo on September 3, 2026, driven by southerly flow and residual summer warmth offset by increasing cloud cover and thunderstorm chances (50–85% probability in afternoon hours). This setup favors convective cooling that limits peak insolation compared to clearer conditions on September 2, while dew points near 24–25°C sustain humidity that can suppress further warming. Model spread arises from timing of precipitation and steering patterns, creating genuine uncertainty that explains the tight clustering of market-implied probabilities around 29–32°C. Updated runs ahead of the date will refine these thresholds.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions