**Forecast consensus from models and the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) points to a daytime high of 30–32 °C on September 2, 2026, aligning closely with the market’s heaviest trading around 31 °C (48.5 % implied probability) and 30 °C (25.5 %).** Early September climatology for Tokyo features typical maxima near 29–30 °C under the lingering influence of the summer monsoon regime. Current conditions show warm, humid southerly flow, partly cloudy skies, and minimal precipitation risk on the 2nd, permitting strong daytime insolation and surface heating. Official JMA guidance and ensemble runs (including GFS and ECMWF) converge on afternoon peaks of 32–33 °C, with some local variability from urban heat-island effects and cloud cover timing. Low rain probability (under 20 % in most guidance) and light-to-moderate winds reduce evaporative cooling, supporting the upper end of the favored range. Model spread and the possibility of slightly greater afternoon cloudiness keep 32 °C and higher outcomes at lower probabilities, while cooler realizations remain unlikely absent an unexpected frontal passage. Updated JMA and numerical guidance released in the coming hours will be the next key catalyst for any shifts in trader positioning.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於9月2日東京氣溫最高？
9月2日東京氣溫最高？
31°C 49%
30°C 26%
32°C 14%
29°C 10%
最新
$10,229 交易量
最新
$10,229 交易量
2026-09-02
26°C or below
<1%
27°C
1%
28°C
4%
29°C
10%
30°C
26%
31°C
49%
32°C
14%
33°C
3%
34°C
2%
35°C
<1%
36°C or higher
<1%
31°C 49%
30°C 26%
32°C 14%
29°C 10%
最新
$10,229 交易量
最新
$10,229 交易量
2026-09-02
26°C or below
$2,174 交易量
<1%
27°C
$430 交易量
1%
28°C
$381 交易量
4%
29°C
$813 交易量
10%
30°C
$1,291 交易量
26%
31°C
$1,134 交易量
49%
32°C
$1,577 交易量
14%
33°C
$1,203 交易量
3%
34°C
$463 交易量
2%
35°C
$408 交易量
<1%
36°C or higher
$354 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast consensus from models and the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) points to a daytime high of 30–32 °C on September 2, 2026, aligning closely with the market’s heaviest trading around 31 °C (48.5 % implied probability) and 30 °C (25.5 %).**
Early September climatology for Tokyo features typical maxima near 29–30 °C under the lingering influence of the summer monsoon regime. Current conditions show warm, humid southerly flow, partly cloudy skies, and minimal precipitation risk on the 2nd, permitting strong daytime insolation and surface heating. Official JMA guidance and ensemble runs (including GFS and ECMWF) converge on afternoon peaks of 32–33 °C, with some local variability from urban heat-island effects and cloud cover timing.
Low rain probability (under 20 % in most guidance) and light-to-moderate winds reduce evaporative cooling, supporting the upper end of the favored range. Model spread and the possibility of slightly greater afternoon cloudiness keep 32 °C and higher outcomes at lower probabilities, while cooler realizations remain unlikely absent an unexpected frontal passage. Updated JMA and numerical guidance released in the coming hours will be the next key catalyst for any shifts in trader positioning.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間： Aug 31, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
交易量
$10,229結束日期
2026-09-02市場開放時間
Aug 31, 2026, 12:56 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast consensus from models and the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) points to a daytime high of 30–32 °C on September 2, 2026, aligning closely with the market’s heaviest trading around 31 °C (48.5 % implied probability) and 30 °C (25.5 %).**
Early September climatology for Tokyo features typical maxima near 29–30 °C under the lingering influence of the summer monsoon regime. Current conditions show warm, humid southerly flow, partly cloudy skies, and minimal precipitation risk on the 2nd, permitting strong daytime insolation and surface heating. Official JMA guidance and ensemble runs (including GFS and ECMWF) converge on afternoon peaks of 32–33 °C, with some local variability from urban heat-island effects and cloud cover timing.
Low rain probability (under 20 % in most guidance) and light-to-moderate winds reduce evaporative cooling, supporting the upper end of the favored range. Model spread and the possibility of slightly greater afternoon cloudiness keep 32 °C and higher outcomes at lower probabilities, while cooler realizations remain unlikely absent an unexpected frontal passage. Updated JMA and numerical guidance released in the coming hours will be the next key catalyst for any shifts in trader positioning.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$10,229結束日期
2026-09-02市場開放時間
Aug 31, 2026, 12:56 AM ET**Forecast consensus from models and the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) points to a daytime high of 30–32 °C on September 2, 2026, aligning closely with the market’s heaviest trading around 31 °C (48.5 % implied probability) and 30 °C (25.5 %).** Early September climatology for Tokyo features typical maxima near 29–30 °C under the lingering influence of the summer monsoon regime. Current conditions show warm, humid southerly flow, partly cloudy skies, and minimal precipitation risk on the 2nd, permitting strong daytime insolation and surface heating. Official JMA guidance and ensemble runs (including GFS and ECMWF) converge on afternoon peaks of 32–33 °C, with some local variability from urban heat-island effects and cloud cover timing. Low rain probability (under 20 % in most guidance) and light-to-moderate winds reduce evaporative cooling, supporting the upper end of the favored range. Model spread and the possibility of slightly greater afternoon cloudiness keep 32 °C and higher outcomes at lower probabilities, while cooler realizations remain unlikely absent an unexpected frontal passage. Updated JMA and numerical guidance released in the coming hours will be the next key catalyst for any shifts in trader positioning.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions