**Persistent warm, humid conditions with limited overnight cooling are keeping forecast lows for Chicago on September 3 clustered in the mid-70s, driving the tight clustering of market-implied odds around 74–77°F (each near 26%) versus slightly lower or higher brackets (22.5–25%).** Short-range guidance from sources such as WeatherBug shows a forecast low near 78°F under partly cloudy skies with scattered thunderstorms possible after midnight, while broader model consensus and historical analogs point to mid-70s readings. The dominant warm, moist air mass advected by southwesterly flow, combined with high dew points and potential cloud cover or rain that reduces radiational cooling, limits the drop to the typical early-September average low of ~63°F. Lake Michigan’s moderating influence further supports higher minima near the city. The near-even distribution across bins reflects genuine forecast uncertainty in the precise minimum: small shifts in storm timing, cloud cover, or wind speed could easily move the low by a few degrees. Traders are therefore pricing the full plausible range rather than converging on a single outcome, consistent with skin-in-the-game assessment of model spread and the narrow resolution thresholds. Updated National Weather Service or NOAA guidance ahead of the date will be the key catalyst for any odds movement.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於9月3日芝加哥的最低溫度？
9月3日芝加哥的最低溫度？
華氏86度或更高 48%
84-85°F 37%
76-77°F 26%
78-79°F 26%
最新
最新
2026-09-03
華氏67度或以下
25%
68-69°F
20%
70-71°F
25%
72-73°F
25%
74-75°F
25%
76-77°F
26%
78-79°F
26%
80-81華氏度
25%
82-83°F
25%
84-85°F
37%
華氏86度或更高
48%
華氏86度或更高 48%
84-85°F 37%
76-77°F 26%
78-79°F 26%
最新
最新
2026-09-03
華氏67度或以下
$0 交易量
25%
68-69°F
$0 交易量
20%
70-71°F
$0 交易量
25%
72-73°F
$0 交易量
25%
74-75°F
$0 交易量
25%
76-77°F
$0 交易量
26%
78-79°F
$0 交易量
26%
80-81華氏度
$0 交易量
25%
82-83°F
$0 交易量
25%
84-85°F
$10 交易量
37%
華氏86度或更高
$10 交易量
48%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Persistent warm, humid conditions with limited overnight cooling are keeping forecast lows for Chicago on September 3 clustered in the mid-70s, driving the tight clustering of market-implied odds around 74–77°F (each near 26%) versus slightly lower or higher brackets (22.5–25%).**
Short-range guidance from sources such as WeatherBug shows a forecast low near 78°F under partly cloudy skies with scattered thunderstorms possible after midnight, while broader model consensus and historical analogs point to mid-70s readings. The dominant warm, moist air mass advected by southwesterly flow, combined with high dew points and potential cloud cover or rain that reduces radiational cooling, limits the drop to the typical early-September average low of ~63°F. Lake Michigan’s moderating influence further supports higher minima near the city.
The near-even distribution across bins reflects genuine forecast uncertainty in the precise minimum: small shifts in storm timing, cloud cover, or wind speed could easily move the low by a few degrees. Traders are therefore pricing the full plausible range rather than converging on a single outcome, consistent with skin-in-the-game assessment of model spread and the narrow resolution thresholds. Updated National Weather Service or NOAA guidance ahead of the date will be the key catalyst for any odds movement.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間： Sep 1, 2026, 3:29 AM ET
交易量
$20結束日期
2026-09-03市場開放時間
Sep 1, 2026, 3:29 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Persistent warm, humid conditions with limited overnight cooling are keeping forecast lows for Chicago on September 3 clustered in the mid-70s, driving the tight clustering of market-implied odds around 74–77°F (each near 26%) versus slightly lower or higher brackets (22.5–25%).**
Short-range guidance from sources such as WeatherBug shows a forecast low near 78°F under partly cloudy skies with scattered thunderstorms possible after midnight, while broader model consensus and historical analogs point to mid-70s readings. The dominant warm, moist air mass advected by southwesterly flow, combined with high dew points and potential cloud cover or rain that reduces radiational cooling, limits the drop to the typical early-September average low of ~63°F. Lake Michigan’s moderating influence further supports higher minima near the city.
The near-even distribution across bins reflects genuine forecast uncertainty in the precise minimum: small shifts in storm timing, cloud cover, or wind speed could easily move the low by a few degrees. Traders are therefore pricing the full plausible range rather than converging on a single outcome, consistent with skin-in-the-game assessment of model spread and the narrow resolution thresholds. Updated National Weather Service or NOAA guidance ahead of the date will be the key catalyst for any odds movement.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$20結束日期
2026-09-03市場開放時間
Sep 1, 2026, 3:29 AM ET**Persistent warm, humid conditions with limited overnight cooling are keeping forecast lows for Chicago on September 3 clustered in the mid-70s, driving the tight clustering of market-implied odds around 74–77°F (each near 26%) versus slightly lower or higher brackets (22.5–25%).** Short-range guidance from sources such as WeatherBug shows a forecast low near 78°F under partly cloudy skies with scattered thunderstorms possible after midnight, while broader model consensus and historical analogs point to mid-70s readings. The dominant warm, moist air mass advected by southwesterly flow, combined with high dew points and potential cloud cover or rain that reduces radiational cooling, limits the drop to the typical early-September average low of ~63°F. Lake Michigan’s moderating influence further supports higher minima near the city. The near-even distribution across bins reflects genuine forecast uncertainty in the precise minimum: small shifts in storm timing, cloud cover, or wind speed could easily move the low by a few degrees. Traders are therefore pricing the full plausible range rather than converging on a single outcome, consistent with skin-in-the-game assessment of model spread and the narrow resolution thresholds. Updated National Weather Service or NOAA guidance ahead of the date will be the key catalyst for any odds movement.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions