**Current forecasts for Chicago on September 2, 2026, point to unusually warm overnight lows in the upper 70s, driving the 76-77°F bin to a leading 57% implied probability.** Official and model guidance (including National Weather Service-aligned sources) consistently show a minimum temperature near 80°F under partly cloudy skies, with persistent southwest flow maintaining humid conditions and limiting radiational cooling. Heat indices near or above 100°F during the day further support elevated nighttime readings well above the historical average low of ~64°F. This setup stems from a broad warm-air advection pattern, with minimal frontal activity or cloud cover to enhance cooling overnight. Traders have priced in limited downside risk to the mid-70s or lower, reflected in the 43.5% odds on 67°F or below and adjacent bins, as such outcomes would require an unexpected shift in steering patterns or stronger boundary-layer mixing not currently indicated. Upcoming model runs and any late-day observations could refine the exact minimum, but consensus remains firmly in the mid-to-upper 70s range.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於9月2日芝加哥的最低溫度？
9月2日芝加哥的最低溫度？
67°F或以下 100%
74-75°F 86%
80-81°F 83%
86°F或更高 83%
最新
最新
2026-09-02
67°F或以下
100%
68-69°F
82%
70-71°F
82%
72-73°F
82%
74-75°F
86%
76-77°F
59%
78-79°F
82%
80-81°F
83%
82-83°F
82%
84-85°F
1%
86°F或更高
83%
67°F或以下 100%
74-75°F 86%
80-81°F 83%
86°F或更高 83%
最新
最新
2026-09-02
67°F或以下
$15 交易量
100%
68-69°F
$15 交易量
82%
70-71°F
$0 交易量
82%
72-73°F
$0 交易量
82%
74-75°F
$0 交易量
86%
76-77°F
$0 交易量
59%
78-79°F
$0 交易量
82%
80-81°F
$0 交易量
83%
82-83°F
$15 交易量
82%
84-85°F
$5 交易量
1%
86°F或更高
$5 交易量
83%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 2 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Current forecasts for Chicago on September 2, 2026, point to unusually warm overnight lows in the upper 70s, driving the 76-77°F bin to a leading 57% implied probability.** Official and model guidance (including National Weather Service-aligned sources) consistently show a minimum temperature near 80°F under partly cloudy skies, with persistent southwest flow maintaining humid conditions and limiting radiational cooling. Heat indices near or above 100°F during the day further support elevated nighttime readings well above the historical average low of ~64°F.
This setup stems from a broad warm-air advection pattern, with minimal frontal activity or cloud cover to enhance cooling overnight. Traders have priced in limited downside risk to the mid-70s or lower, reflected in the 43.5% odds on 67°F or below and adjacent bins, as such outcomes would require an unexpected shift in steering patterns or stronger boundary-layer mixing not currently indicated. Upcoming model runs and any late-day observations could refine the exact minimum, but consensus remains firmly in the mid-to-upper 70s range.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 2 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間： Aug 31, 2026, 3:29 AM ET
交易量
$55結束日期
2026-09-02市場開放時間
Aug 31, 2026, 3:29 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 2 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Current forecasts for Chicago on September 2, 2026, point to unusually warm overnight lows in the upper 70s, driving the 76-77°F bin to a leading 57% implied probability.** Official and model guidance (including National Weather Service-aligned sources) consistently show a minimum temperature near 80°F under partly cloudy skies, with persistent southwest flow maintaining humid conditions and limiting radiational cooling. Heat indices near or above 100°F during the day further support elevated nighttime readings well above the historical average low of ~64°F.
This setup stems from a broad warm-air advection pattern, with minimal frontal activity or cloud cover to enhance cooling overnight. Traders have priced in limited downside risk to the mid-70s or lower, reflected in the 43.5% odds on 67°F or below and adjacent bins, as such outcomes would require an unexpected shift in steering patterns or stronger boundary-layer mixing not currently indicated. Upcoming model runs and any late-day observations could refine the exact minimum, but consensus remains firmly in the mid-to-upper 70s range.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 2 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$55結束日期
2026-09-02市場開放時間
Aug 31, 2026, 3:29 AM ET**Current forecasts for Chicago on September 2, 2026, point to unusually warm overnight lows in the upper 70s, driving the 76-77°F bin to a leading 57% implied probability.** Official and model guidance (including National Weather Service-aligned sources) consistently show a minimum temperature near 80°F under partly cloudy skies, with persistent southwest flow maintaining humid conditions and limiting radiational cooling. Heat indices near or above 100°F during the day further support elevated nighttime readings well above the historical average low of ~64°F. This setup stems from a broad warm-air advection pattern, with minimal frontal activity or cloud cover to enhance cooling overnight. Traders have priced in limited downside risk to the mid-70s or lower, reflected in the 43.5% odds on 67°F or below and adjacent bins, as such outcomes would require an unexpected shift in steering patterns or stronger boundary-layer mixing not currently indicated. Upcoming model runs and any late-day observations could refine the exact minimum, but consensus remains firmly in the mid-to-upper 70s range.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions