Forecast uncertainty in short-term numerical weather prediction models is the main driver keeping implied probabilities clustered between 6–9°C for Buenos Aires’ minimum temperature on September 4. Ensemble guidance shows modest spread in the strength and timing of a weak cold-air surge from the south, which controls how much radiational cooling occurs overnight under partly cloudy skies. Official Servicio Meteorológico Nacional guidance and global models such as ECMWF and GFS remain closely aligned on a 5–10°C range but diverge on exact boundary-layer moisture and wind speeds that differentiate the 6°C versus 9°C outcomes. With resolution only hours away, traders are weighting the latest model runs and local observations heavily, reflecting the inherent limits of predictability at this short lead time.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於9月4日布宜諾斯艾利斯的最低溫度？
9月4日布宜諾斯艾利斯的最低溫度？
8°C 49%
12°C 49%
13°C 49%
14°C 49%
最新
最新
2026-09-04
5°C或以下
44%
6°C
30%
7°C
27%
8°C
49%
9°C
27%
10°C
3%
11°C
16%
12°C
49%
13°C
49%
14°C
49%
15°C或以上
44%
8°C 49%
12°C 49%
13°C 49%
14°C 49%
最新
最新
2026-09-04
5°C或以下
$32 交易量
44%
6°C
$0 交易量
30%
7°C
$0 交易量
27%
8°C
$0 交易量
49%
9°C
$0 交易量
27%
10°C
$220 交易量
3%
11°C
$0 交易量
16%
12°C
$0 交易量
49%
13°C
$0 交易量
49%
14°C
$0 交易量
49%
15°C或以上
$0 交易量
44%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Minister Pistarini Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=saez
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast uncertainty in short-term numerical weather prediction models is the main driver keeping implied probabilities clustered between 6–9°C for Buenos Aires’ minimum temperature on September 4. Ensemble guidance shows modest spread in the strength and timing of a weak cold-air surge from the south, which controls how much radiational cooling occurs overnight under partly cloudy skies. Official Servicio Meteorológico Nacional guidance and global models such as ECMWF and GFS remain closely aligned on a 5–10°C range but diverge on exact boundary-layer moisture and wind speeds that differentiate the 6°C versus 9°C outcomes. With resolution only hours away, traders are weighting the latest model runs and local observations heavily, reflecting the inherent limits of predictability at this short lead time.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Minister Pistarini Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=saez
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=saez
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間： Sep 2, 2026, 8:29 AM ET
交易量
$252結束日期
2026-09-04市場開放時間
Sep 2, 2026, 8:29 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Minister Pistarini Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=saez
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast uncertainty in short-term numerical weather prediction models is the main driver keeping implied probabilities clustered between 6–9°C for Buenos Aires’ minimum temperature on September 4. Ensemble guidance shows modest spread in the strength and timing of a weak cold-air surge from the south, which controls how much radiational cooling occurs overnight under partly cloudy skies. Official Servicio Meteorológico Nacional guidance and global models such as ECMWF and GFS remain closely aligned on a 5–10°C range but diverge on exact boundary-layer moisture and wind speeds that differentiate the 6°C versus 9°C outcomes. With resolution only hours away, traders are weighting the latest model runs and local observations heavily, reflecting the inherent limits of predictability at this short lead time.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Minister Pistarini Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=saez
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=saez
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$252結束日期
2026-09-04市場開放時間
Sep 2, 2026, 8:29 AM ETForecast uncertainty in short-term numerical weather prediction models is the main driver keeping implied probabilities clustered between 6–9°C for Buenos Aires’ minimum temperature on September 4. Ensemble guidance shows modest spread in the strength and timing of a weak cold-air surge from the south, which controls how much radiational cooling occurs overnight under partly cloudy skies. Official Servicio Meteorológico Nacional guidance and global models such as ECMWF and GFS remain closely aligned on a 5–10°C range but diverge on exact boundary-layer moisture and wind speeds that differentiate the 6°C versus 9°C outcomes. With resolution only hours away, traders are weighting the latest model runs and local observations heavily, reflecting the inherent limits of predictability at this short lead time.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions