**Trader consensus centers on a 64-65°F minimum at Los Angeles-area stations on September 4, 2026, reflecting official National Weather Service observations at Los Angeles International Airport (LAX) of exactly 65°F around 5:50 a.m. PDT under mostly clear skies.** This aligns closely with the 1991–2020 climatological average low of 64.5°F for the date and typical early-September marine-layer influence that moderates overnight cooling along the coast. Model guidance and prior days’ readings showed stable conditions with light winds and no significant onshore flow or cloud cover to push temperatures lower, supporting the narrow 90.5% implied probability for the 64-65°F bin. Realistic challenges to this outcome include minor variations across official stations (e.g., downtown Los Angeles or other urban sites sometimes recording 1–2°F differences due to heat-island effects or microscale drainage) or any post-observation quality-control adjustments by the NWS. Earlier uncertainty in forecasts likely explains the smaller allocations to cooler bins such as 62-63°F or 56-57°F. Resolution will hinge on finalized NWS climatological reports rather than preliminary data.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於9月4日洛杉磯的最低溫度？
9月4日洛杉磯的最低溫度？
64-65°F 99%
56-57°F 20%
華氏55度或以下 13%
60-61°F 7%
$9,332 交易量
$9,332 交易量
2026-09-04
華氏55度或以下
否
56-57°F
否
58-59華氏度
否
60-61°F
否
62-63°F
否
64-65°F
是
66-67°F
否
68-69華氏度
否
70-71°F
否
72-73°F
否
華氏74度或以上
否
64-65°F 99%
56-57°F 20%
華氏55度或以下 13%
60-61°F 7%
$9,332 交易量
$9,332 交易量
2026-09-04
華氏55度或以下
$95 交易量
否
56-57°F
$79 交易量
否
58-59華氏度
$236 交易量
否
60-61°F
$60 交易量
否
62-63°F
$67 交易量
否
64-65°F
$375 交易量
是
66-67°F
$501 交易量
否
68-69華氏度
$7,379 交易量
否
70-71°F
$390 交易量
否
72-73°F
$103 交易量
否
華氏74度或以上
$47 交易量
否
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Los Angeles International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klax
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader consensus centers on a 64-65°F minimum at Los Angeles-area stations on September 4, 2026, reflecting official National Weather Service observations at Los Angeles International Airport (LAX) of exactly 65°F around 5:50 a.m. PDT under mostly clear skies.**
This aligns closely with the 1991–2020 climatological average low of 64.5°F for the date and typical early-September marine-layer influence that moderates overnight cooling along the coast. Model guidance and prior days’ readings showed stable conditions with light winds and no significant onshore flow or cloud cover to push temperatures lower, supporting the narrow 90.5% implied probability for the 64-65°F bin.
Realistic challenges to this outcome include minor variations across official stations (e.g., downtown Los Angeles or other urban sites sometimes recording 1–2°F differences due to heat-island effects or microscale drainage) or any post-observation quality-control adjustments by the NWS. Earlier uncertainty in forecasts likely explains the smaller allocations to cooler bins such as 62-63°F or 56-57°F. Resolution will hinge on finalized NWS climatological reports rather than preliminary data.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Los Angeles International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klax
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klax
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間： Sep 2, 2026, 7:29 AM ET
交易量
$9,332結束日期
2026-09-04市場開放時間
Sep 2, 2026, 7:29 AM ET已提議結果: 否
無爭議
最終結果: 否
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Los Angeles International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klax
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader consensus centers on a 64-65°F minimum at Los Angeles-area stations on September 4, 2026, reflecting official National Weather Service observations at Los Angeles International Airport (LAX) of exactly 65°F around 5:50 a.m. PDT under mostly clear skies.**
This aligns closely with the 1991–2020 climatological average low of 64.5°F for the date and typical early-September marine-layer influence that moderates overnight cooling along the coast. Model guidance and prior days’ readings showed stable conditions with light winds and no significant onshore flow or cloud cover to push temperatures lower, supporting the narrow 90.5% implied probability for the 64-65°F bin.
Realistic challenges to this outcome include minor variations across official stations (e.g., downtown Los Angeles or other urban sites sometimes recording 1–2°F differences due to heat-island effects or microscale drainage) or any post-observation quality-control adjustments by the NWS. Earlier uncertainty in forecasts likely explains the smaller allocations to cooler bins such as 62-63°F or 56-57°F. Resolution will hinge on finalized NWS climatological reports rather than preliminary data.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Los Angeles International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klax
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klax
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$9,332結束日期
2026-09-04市場開放時間
Sep 2, 2026, 7:29 AM ET已提議結果: 否
無爭議
最終結果: 否
**Trader consensus centers on a 64-65°F minimum at Los Angeles-area stations on September 4, 2026, reflecting official National Weather Service observations at Los Angeles International Airport (LAX) of exactly 65°F around 5:50 a.m. PDT under mostly clear skies.** This aligns closely with the 1991–2020 climatological average low of 64.5°F for the date and typical early-September marine-layer influence that moderates overnight cooling along the coast. Model guidance and prior days’ readings showed stable conditions with light winds and no significant onshore flow or cloud cover to push temperatures lower, supporting the narrow 90.5% implied probability for the 64-65°F bin. Realistic challenges to this outcome include minor variations across official stations (e.g., downtown Los Angeles or other urban sites sometimes recording 1–2°F differences due to heat-island effects or microscale drainage) or any post-observation quality-control adjustments by the NWS. Earlier uncertainty in forecasts likely explains the smaller allocations to cooler bins such as 62-63°F or 56-57°F. Resolution will hinge on finalized NWS climatological reports rather than preliminary data.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions