**Recent forecasts from global and regional models position 36–37°C as the most likely peak for Chongqing on September 6.** Multiple sources, including ECMWF, GFS, and local Chinese meteorological outputs, show a stable high-pressure pattern with mostly clear skies, light easterly or southeasterly winds under 10 km/h, and minimal precipitation risk, allowing daytime heating to reach the mid- to upper-30s Celsius. Recent observations (34–35°C on September 2–4) and short-range runs support gradual warming without strong cold-air intrusions or monsoon influences. Historical September baselines for the region average highs near 28–32°C, but 2026 conditions reflect warmer-than-average late-summer persistence. Model spread remains modest, with some ensembles hinting at possible 38°C under optimal insolation and urban heat-island effects, while cooler scenarios below 35°C appear less supported. Traders have priced this consensus accordingly, with 37°C leading at 46.5% implied probability. Updated model runs and official China Meteorological Administration briefings ahead of the date remain the key near-term catalysts.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於9月6日重慶氣溫最高？
9月6日重慶氣溫最高？
37°C 49%
36°C 25%
38°C 15%
35°C 9%
最新
最新
2026-09-06
31°C或以下
2%
32°C
1%
33°C
5%
34°C
3%
35°C
9%
36°C
25%
37°C
49%
38°C
15%
39°C
4%
40°C
3%
41°C或更高
2%
37°C 49%
36°C 25%
38°C 15%
35°C 9%
最新
最新
2026-09-06
31°C或以下
$45 交易量
2%
32°C
$7 交易量
1%
33°C
$0 交易量
5%
34°C
$265 交易量
3%
35°C
$7 交易量
9%
36°C
$120 交易量
25%
37°C
$360 交易量
49%
38°C
$70 交易量
15%
39°C
$41 交易量
4%
40°C
$14 交易量
3%
41°C或更高
$300 交易量
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chongqing Jiangbei International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuck
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Recent forecasts from global and regional models position 36–37°C as the most likely peak for Chongqing on September 6.** Multiple sources, including ECMWF, GFS, and local Chinese meteorological outputs, show a stable high-pressure pattern with mostly clear skies, light easterly or southeasterly winds under 10 km/h, and minimal precipitation risk, allowing daytime heating to reach the mid- to upper-30s Celsius. Recent observations (34–35°C on September 2–4) and short-range runs support gradual warming without strong cold-air intrusions or monsoon influences. Historical September baselines for the region average highs near 28–32°C, but 2026 conditions reflect warmer-than-average late-summer persistence. Model spread remains modest, with some ensembles hinting at possible 38°C under optimal insolation and urban heat-island effects, while cooler scenarios below 35°C appear less supported. Traders have priced this consensus accordingly, with 37°C leading at 46.5% implied probability. Updated model runs and official China Meteorological Administration briefings ahead of the date remain the key near-term catalysts.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chongqing Jiangbei International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuck
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuck
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間： Sep 4, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
交易量
$1,229結束日期
2026-09-06市場開放時間
Sep 4, 2026, 12:57 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chongqing Jiangbei International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuck
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Recent forecasts from global and regional models position 36–37°C as the most likely peak for Chongqing on September 6.** Multiple sources, including ECMWF, GFS, and local Chinese meteorological outputs, show a stable high-pressure pattern with mostly clear skies, light easterly or southeasterly winds under 10 km/h, and minimal precipitation risk, allowing daytime heating to reach the mid- to upper-30s Celsius. Recent observations (34–35°C on September 2–4) and short-range runs support gradual warming without strong cold-air intrusions or monsoon influences. Historical September baselines for the region average highs near 28–32°C, but 2026 conditions reflect warmer-than-average late-summer persistence. Model spread remains modest, with some ensembles hinting at possible 38°C under optimal insolation and urban heat-island effects, while cooler scenarios below 35°C appear less supported. Traders have priced this consensus accordingly, with 37°C leading at 46.5% implied probability. Updated model runs and official China Meteorological Administration briefings ahead of the date remain the key near-term catalysts.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chongqing Jiangbei International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuck
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuck
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$1,229結束日期
2026-09-06市場開放時間
Sep 4, 2026, 12:57 AM ET**Recent forecasts from global and regional models position 36–37°C as the most likely peak for Chongqing on September 6.** Multiple sources, including ECMWF, GFS, and local Chinese meteorological outputs, show a stable high-pressure pattern with mostly clear skies, light easterly or southeasterly winds under 10 km/h, and minimal precipitation risk, allowing daytime heating to reach the mid- to upper-30s Celsius. Recent observations (34–35°C on September 2–4) and short-range runs support gradual warming without strong cold-air intrusions or monsoon influences. Historical September baselines for the region average highs near 28–32°C, but 2026 conditions reflect warmer-than-average late-summer persistence. Model spread remains modest, with some ensembles hinting at possible 38°C under optimal insolation and urban heat-island effects, while cooler scenarios below 35°C appear less supported. Traders have priced this consensus accordingly, with 37°C leading at 46.5% implied probability. Updated model runs and official China Meteorological Administration briefings ahead of the date remain the key near-term catalysts.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions