Recent forecast guidance from regional and global models points to a highest temperature in Shenzhen on September 4 clustered in the 27–29 °C range, aligning with the closely matched market-implied odds. Persistent northwest flow, extensive cloud cover, and scattered thunderstorms or light rain are expected to limit daytime heating in this subtropical coastal setting, keeping peaks below the seasonal average near 30 °C. Ensemble spreads reflect typical model divergence on exact precipitation timing and intensity, which can shift the daily maximum by 1–2 °C. Updated runs from agencies such as the China Meteorological Administration ahead of the event will likely refine these probabilities before resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於9月4日深圳最高溫度？
9月4日深圳最高溫度？
28°C 27%
29°C 24%
27°C 21%
30°C 16%
最新
最新
2026-09-04
22°C或以下
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
1%
25°C
4%
26°C
10%
27°C
21%
28°C
27%
29°C
24%
30°C
16%
31°C
3%
32°C或以上
<1%
28°C 27%
29°C 24%
27°C 21%
30°C 16%
最新
最新
2026-09-04
22°C或以下
$3 交易量
<1%
23°C
$0 交易量
<1%
24°C
$401 交易量
1%
25°C
$147 交易量
4%
26°C
$575 交易量
10%
27°C
$1,695 交易量
21%
28°C
$557 交易量
27%
29°C
$335 交易量
24%
30°C
$321 交易量
16%
31°C
$305 交易量
3%
32°C或以上
$375 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast guidance from regional and global models points to a highest temperature in Shenzhen on September 4 clustered in the 27–29 °C range, aligning with the closely matched market-implied odds. Persistent northwest flow, extensive cloud cover, and scattered thunderstorms or light rain are expected to limit daytime heating in this subtropical coastal setting, keeping peaks below the seasonal average near 30 °C. Ensemble spreads reflect typical model divergence on exact precipitation timing and intensity, which can shift the daily maximum by 1–2 °C. Updated runs from agencies such as the China Meteorological Administration ahead of the event will likely refine these probabilities before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間： Sep 2, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
交易量
$4,715結束日期
2026-09-04市場開放時間
Sep 2, 2026, 12:57 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast guidance from regional and global models points to a highest temperature in Shenzhen on September 4 clustered in the 27–29 °C range, aligning with the closely matched market-implied odds. Persistent northwest flow, extensive cloud cover, and scattered thunderstorms or light rain are expected to limit daytime heating in this subtropical coastal setting, keeping peaks below the seasonal average near 30 °C. Ensemble spreads reflect typical model divergence on exact precipitation timing and intensity, which can shift the daily maximum by 1–2 °C. Updated runs from agencies such as the China Meteorological Administration ahead of the event will likely refine these probabilities before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$4,715結束日期
2026-09-04市場開放時間
Sep 2, 2026, 12:57 AM ETRecent forecast guidance from regional and global models points to a highest temperature in Shenzhen on September 4 clustered in the 27–29 °C range, aligning with the closely matched market-implied odds. Persistent northwest flow, extensive cloud cover, and scattered thunderstorms or light rain are expected to limit daytime heating in this subtropical coastal setting, keeping peaks below the seasonal average near 30 °C. Ensemble spreads reflect typical model divergence on exact precipitation timing and intensity, which can shift the daily maximum by 1–2 °C. Updated runs from agencies such as the China Meteorological Administration ahead of the event will likely refine these probabilities before resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions