Forecast models from agencies including the China Meteorological Administration and international ensembles indicate a highest temperature in Beijing on September 4 most likely between 32–34 °C, driven by southerly flow advecting warmer air under initially clear to partly cloudy skies before a northeast wind shift. Official guidance and multiple numerical weather prediction runs cluster near 32–33 °C, with limited model spread reflecting modest uncertainty in boundary-layer mixing and any thin high-cloud effects that could trim peak values by 1 °C. This range sits several degrees above the September climatological average of ~26–28 °C, yet remains well below extreme late-summer records. With resolution hinging on the exact daily maximum observed at official stations, traders weigh the latest 48-hour model updates and any revisions to cloud or wind forecasts as the primary near-term catalysts for shifts in implied probabilities.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於9月4日北京最高溫度？
9月4日北京最高溫度？
33°C 35%
32°C 29%
34°C 14%
31°C 11%
最新
最新
2026-09-04
27°C或以下
1%
28°C
2%
29°C
4%
30°C
4%
31°C
13%
32°C
29%
33°C
35%
34°C
14%
35°C
6%
36°C
3%
37°C或更高
<1%
33°C 35%
32°C 29%
34°C 14%
31°C 11%
最新
最新
2026-09-04
27°C或以下
$0 交易量
1%
28°C
$0 交易量
2%
29°C
$0 交易量
4%
30°C
$25 交易量
4%
31°C
$24 交易量
13%
32°C
$54 交易量
29%
33°C
$135 交易量
35%
34°C
$7 交易量
14%
35°C
$91 交易量
6%
36°C
$0 交易量
3%
37°C或更高
$100 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models from agencies including the China Meteorological Administration and international ensembles indicate a highest temperature in Beijing on September 4 most likely between 32–34 °C, driven by southerly flow advecting warmer air under initially clear to partly cloudy skies before a northeast wind shift. Official guidance and multiple numerical weather prediction runs cluster near 32–33 °C, with limited model spread reflecting modest uncertainty in boundary-layer mixing and any thin high-cloud effects that could trim peak values by 1 °C. This range sits several degrees above the September climatological average of ~26–28 °C, yet remains well below extreme late-summer records. With resolution hinging on the exact daily maximum observed at official stations, traders weigh the latest 48-hour model updates and any revisions to cloud or wind forecasts as the primary near-term catalysts for shifts in implied probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間： Sep 2, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
交易量
$436結束日期
2026-09-04市場開放時間
Sep 2, 2026, 12:57 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models from agencies including the China Meteorological Administration and international ensembles indicate a highest temperature in Beijing on September 4 most likely between 32–34 °C, driven by southerly flow advecting warmer air under initially clear to partly cloudy skies before a northeast wind shift. Official guidance and multiple numerical weather prediction runs cluster near 32–33 °C, with limited model spread reflecting modest uncertainty in boundary-layer mixing and any thin high-cloud effects that could trim peak values by 1 °C. This range sits several degrees above the September climatological average of ~26–28 °C, yet remains well below extreme late-summer records. With resolution hinging on the exact daily maximum observed at official stations, traders weigh the latest 48-hour model updates and any revisions to cloud or wind forecasts as the primary near-term catalysts for shifts in implied probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$436結束日期
2026-09-04市場開放時間
Sep 2, 2026, 12:57 AM ETForecast models from agencies including the China Meteorological Administration and international ensembles indicate a highest temperature in Beijing on September 4 most likely between 32–34 °C, driven by southerly flow advecting warmer air under initially clear to partly cloudy skies before a northeast wind shift. Official guidance and multiple numerical weather prediction runs cluster near 32–33 °C, with limited model spread reflecting modest uncertainty in boundary-layer mixing and any thin high-cloud effects that could trim peak values by 1 °C. This range sits several degrees above the September climatological average of ~26–28 °C, yet remains well below extreme late-summer records. With resolution hinging on the exact daily maximum observed at official stations, traders weigh the latest 48-hour model updates and any revisions to cloud or wind forecasts as the primary near-term catalysts for shifts in implied probabilities.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions