Recent official and model guidance points to a 28–29 °C peak on 4 September under a building high-pressure ridge, with southwesterly flow advecting mild maritime air and limited cloud cover during peak insolation hours. Ensemble spreads from GFS and ECMWF runs remain tight around these values, reflecting modest uncertainty in boundary-layer mixing and the precise timing of any thin high cloud. Historical September 4 averages near 23 °C provide context, yet the current positive anomaly aligns with the market’s heaviest volume on 28 °C (38.5 %) and 29 °C (29.5 %). Differentiating factors include surface dew-point depression, 10 m wind speeds near 15–20 km h⁻¹, and urban heat-island amplification; a one- to two-hour shift in cloud arrival or a 2–3 hPa pressure adjustment can readily swing the daily maximum by 1–2 °C, keeping adjacent bins competitive.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於9月4日巴黎最高溫度？
9月4日巴黎最高溫度？
28°C 41%
29°C 30%
27°C 17%
30°C 9%
最新
最新
2026-09-04
24°C或以下
1%
25°C
1%
26°C
4%
27°C
17%
28°C
41%
29°C
30%
30°C
9%
31°C
3%
32°C
2%
33°C
2%
34°C或以上
<1%
28°C 41%
29°C 30%
27°C 17%
30°C 9%
最新
最新
2026-09-04
24°C或以下
$143 交易量
1%
25°C
$110 交易量
1%
26°C
$35 交易量
4%
27°C
$418 交易量
17%
28°C
$262 交易量
41%
29°C
$798 交易量
30%
30°C
$71 交易量
9%
31°C
$172 交易量
3%
32°C
$513 交易量
2%
33°C
$0 交易量
2%
34°C或以上
$511 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent official and model guidance points to a 28–29 °C peak on 4 September under a building high-pressure ridge, with southwesterly flow advecting mild maritime air and limited cloud cover during peak insolation hours. Ensemble spreads from GFS and ECMWF runs remain tight around these values, reflecting modest uncertainty in boundary-layer mixing and the precise timing of any thin high cloud. Historical September 4 averages near 23 °C provide context, yet the current positive anomaly aligns with the market’s heaviest volume on 28 °C (38.5 %) and 29 °C (29.5 %). Differentiating factors include surface dew-point depression, 10 m wind speeds near 15–20 km h⁻¹, and urban heat-island amplification; a one- to two-hour shift in cloud arrival or a 2–3 hPa pressure adjustment can readily swing the daily maximum by 1–2 °C, keeping adjacent bins competitive.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間： Sep 2, 2026, 12:55 AM ET
交易量
$3,034結束日期
2026-09-04市場開放時間
Sep 2, 2026, 12:55 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent official and model guidance points to a 28–29 °C peak on 4 September under a building high-pressure ridge, with southwesterly flow advecting mild maritime air and limited cloud cover during peak insolation hours. Ensemble spreads from GFS and ECMWF runs remain tight around these values, reflecting modest uncertainty in boundary-layer mixing and the precise timing of any thin high cloud. Historical September 4 averages near 23 °C provide context, yet the current positive anomaly aligns with the market’s heaviest volume on 28 °C (38.5 %) and 29 °C (29.5 %). Differentiating factors include surface dew-point depression, 10 m wind speeds near 15–20 km h⁻¹, and urban heat-island amplification; a one- to two-hour shift in cloud arrival or a 2–3 hPa pressure adjustment can readily swing the daily maximum by 1–2 °C, keeping adjacent bins competitive.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$3,034結束日期
2026-09-04市場開放時間
Sep 2, 2026, 12:55 AM ETRecent official and model guidance points to a 28–29 °C peak on 4 September under a building high-pressure ridge, with southwesterly flow advecting mild maritime air and limited cloud cover during peak insolation hours. Ensemble spreads from GFS and ECMWF runs remain tight around these values, reflecting modest uncertainty in boundary-layer mixing and the precise timing of any thin high cloud. Historical September 4 averages near 23 °C provide context, yet the current positive anomaly aligns with the market’s heaviest volume on 28 °C (38.5 %) and 29 °C (29.5 %). Differentiating factors include surface dew-point depression, 10 m wind speeds near 15–20 km h⁻¹, and urban heat-island amplification; a one- to two-hour shift in cloud arrival or a 2–3 hPa pressure adjustment can readily swing the daily maximum by 1–2 °C, keeping adjacent bins competitive.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions