**Trader consensus for a daily minimum of 17°C or below in Madrid on September 4, 2026, reflects verified early-morning observations and model consensus from official sources.** Current forecasts from multiple meteorological services indicate overnight lows near or below the long-term September 4 average of 17.3°C, with some runs showing minima around 20–21°C but sufficient cooling under clear skies and light northeasterly flow to reach or undercut 17°C. Historical climatology supports this positioning, as September minima frequently dip to that threshold amid seasonal transition. The 100% market-implied probability aligns with skin-in-the-game assessment of real-time station data and short-range model agreement. Only an unexpected warming surge or measurement revision above 17°C could alter resolution, though current atmospheric conditions make such an outcome improbable.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於9月4日馬德裏最低氣溫？
9月4日馬德裏最低氣溫？
17°C或以下 100.0%
18°C <1%
19°C <1%
20°C <1%
最新
最新
2026-09-04
17°C或以下
100%
18°C
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C或以上
<1%
17°C或以下 100.0%
18°C <1%
19°C <1%
20°C <1%
最新
最新
2026-09-04
17°C或以下
$785 交易量
100%
18°C
$165 交易量
<1%
19°C
$161 交易量
<1%
20°C
$212 交易量
<1%
21°C
$224 交易量
<1%
22°C
$194 交易量
<1%
23°C
$194 交易量
<1%
24°C
$20 交易量
<1%
25°C
$20 交易量
<1%
26°C
$45 交易量
<1%
27°C或以上
$23 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader consensus for a daily minimum of 17°C or below in Madrid on September 4, 2026, reflects verified early-morning observations and model consensus from official sources.** Current forecasts from multiple meteorological services indicate overnight lows near or below the long-term September 4 average of 17.3°C, with some runs showing minima around 20–21°C but sufficient cooling under clear skies and light northeasterly flow to reach or undercut 17°C. Historical climatology supports this positioning, as September minima frequently dip to that threshold amid seasonal transition. The 100% market-implied probability aligns with skin-in-the-game assessment of real-time station data and short-range model agreement. Only an unexpected warming surge or measurement revision above 17°C could alter resolution, though current atmospheric conditions make such an outcome improbable.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間： Sep 2, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
交易量
$2,043結束日期
2026-09-04市場開放時間
Sep 2, 2026, 12:30 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader consensus for a daily minimum of 17°C or below in Madrid on September 4, 2026, reflects verified early-morning observations and model consensus from official sources.** Current forecasts from multiple meteorological services indicate overnight lows near or below the long-term September 4 average of 17.3°C, with some runs showing minima around 20–21°C but sufficient cooling under clear skies and light northeasterly flow to reach or undercut 17°C. Historical climatology supports this positioning, as September minima frequently dip to that threshold amid seasonal transition. The 100% market-implied probability aligns with skin-in-the-game assessment of real-time station data and short-range model agreement. Only an unexpected warming surge or measurement revision above 17°C could alter resolution, though current atmospheric conditions make such an outcome improbable.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$2,043結束日期
2026-09-04市場開放時間
Sep 2, 2026, 12:30 AM ET**Trader consensus for a daily minimum of 17°C or below in Madrid on September 4, 2026, reflects verified early-morning observations and model consensus from official sources.** Current forecasts from multiple meteorological services indicate overnight lows near or below the long-term September 4 average of 17.3°C, with some runs showing minima around 20–21°C but sufficient cooling under clear skies and light northeasterly flow to reach or undercut 17°C. Historical climatology supports this positioning, as September minima frequently dip to that threshold amid seasonal transition. The 100% market-implied probability aligns with skin-in-the-game assessment of real-time station data and short-range model agreement. Only an unexpected warming surge or measurement revision above 17°C could alter resolution, though current atmospheric conditions make such an outcome improbable.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions