Recent numerical weather model runs for Madrid indicate a likely peak temperature of 37–38°C on September 5, driven by a strong high-pressure ridge promoting subsidence and warm southerly flow, following even hotter conditions on September 3–4. Increasing afternoon cloud cover, with some models showing more extensive low- to mid-level clouds and light southeasterly winds, introduces modest cooling that prevents widespread exceedance of 39°C while still allowing brief spikes near 38°C at urban stations. This aligns with the market’s close 44%–38% split between 38°C and 37°C outcomes. Historical precedent, including the 37.4°C record from 2016, supports the current setup, though final resolution hinges on precise timing of any cloud breaks and official AEMET measurements at reference stations.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於9月5日馬德裏氣溫最高？
9月5日馬德裏氣溫最高？
38°C 44%
37°C 37%
39°C 21%
40°C 6%
最新
最新
2026-09-05
33°C或以下
2%
34°C
1%
35°C
4%
36°C
5%
37°C
37%
38°C
44%
39°C
21%
40°C
6%
41°C
5%
42°C
1%
43°C或更高
1%
38°C 44%
37°C 37%
39°C 21%
40°C 6%
最新
最新
2026-09-05
33°C或以下
$5 交易量
2%
34°C
$0 交易量
1%
35°C
$313 交易量
4%
36°C
$138 交易量
5%
37°C
$150 交易量
37%
38°C
$142 交易量
44%
39°C
$276 交易量
21%
40°C
$0 交易量
6%
41°C
$0 交易量
5%
42°C
$5 交易量
1%
43°C或更高
$0 交易量
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent numerical weather model runs for Madrid indicate a likely peak temperature of 37–38°C on September 5, driven by a strong high-pressure ridge promoting subsidence and warm southerly flow, following even hotter conditions on September 3–4. Increasing afternoon cloud cover, with some models showing more extensive low- to mid-level clouds and light southeasterly winds, introduces modest cooling that prevents widespread exceedance of 39°C while still allowing brief spikes near 38°C at urban stations. This aligns with the market’s close 44%–38% split between 38°C and 37°C outcomes. Historical precedent, including the 37.4°C record from 2016, supports the current setup, though final resolution hinges on precise timing of any cloud breaks and official AEMET measurements at reference stations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間： Sep 3, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
交易量
$1,030結束日期
2026-09-05市場開放時間
Sep 3, 2026, 12:57 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent numerical weather model runs for Madrid indicate a likely peak temperature of 37–38°C on September 5, driven by a strong high-pressure ridge promoting subsidence and warm southerly flow, following even hotter conditions on September 3–4. Increasing afternoon cloud cover, with some models showing more extensive low- to mid-level clouds and light southeasterly winds, introduces modest cooling that prevents widespread exceedance of 39°C while still allowing brief spikes near 38°C at urban stations. This aligns with the market’s close 44%–38% split between 38°C and 37°C outcomes. Historical precedent, including the 37.4°C record from 2016, supports the current setup, though final resolution hinges on precise timing of any cloud breaks and official AEMET measurements at reference stations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$1,030結束日期
2026-09-05市場開放時間
Sep 3, 2026, 12:57 AM ETRecent numerical weather model runs for Madrid indicate a likely peak temperature of 37–38°C on September 5, driven by a strong high-pressure ridge promoting subsidence and warm southerly flow, following even hotter conditions on September 3–4. Increasing afternoon cloud cover, with some models showing more extensive low- to mid-level clouds and light southeasterly winds, introduces modest cooling that prevents widespread exceedance of 39°C while still allowing brief spikes near 38°C at urban stations. This aligns with the market’s close 44%–38% split between 38°C and 37°C outcomes. Historical precedent, including the 37.4°C record from 2016, supports the current setup, though final resolution hinges on precise timing of any cloud breaks and official AEMET measurements at reference stations.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions