Traders see the tightest contest between 38°C and 39°C because ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS show Madrid’s maximum on September 3 hovering near those thresholds under a strong subtropical ridge. Warm southerly advection from North Africa, combined with clear skies and light winds that limit mixing, supports peak readings in this range, while minor differences in modeled cloud timing or boundary-layer moisture could shift the outcome by 1°C. Historical early-September baselines for Madrid average 30–32°C, making this setup an anomalous heat event whose exact intensity remains sensitive to small forecast adjustments. AEMET updates and new model runs over the next 48 hours will likely refine the implied probabilities as resolution nears.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於9月3日馬德裏氣溫最高？
9月3日馬德裏氣溫最高？
39°C 50%
38°C 48%
37°C 23%
40°C 9%
最新
最新
2026-09-03
33°C or below
4%
34°C
4%
35°C
4%
36°C
4%
37°C
13%
38°C
48%
39°C
41%
40°C
9%
41°C
4%
42°C
<1%
43°C or higher
<1%
39°C 50%
38°C 48%
37°C 23%
40°C 9%
最新
最新
2026-09-03
33°C or below
$5 交易量
4%
34°C
$5 交易量
4%
35°C
$5 交易量
4%
36°C
$0 交易量
4%
37°C
$10 交易量
13%
38°C
$13 交易量
48%
39°C
$92 交易量
41%
40°C
$0 交易量
9%
41°C
$10 交易量
4%
42°C
$19 交易量
<1%
43°C or higher
$5 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Traders see the tightest contest between 38°C and 39°C because ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS show Madrid’s maximum on September 3 hovering near those thresholds under a strong subtropical ridge. Warm southerly advection from North Africa, combined with clear skies and light winds that limit mixing, supports peak readings in this range, while minor differences in modeled cloud timing or boundary-layer moisture could shift the outcome by 1°C. Historical early-September baselines for Madrid average 30–32°C, making this setup an anomalous heat event whose exact intensity remains sensitive to small forecast adjustments. AEMET updates and new model runs over the next 48 hours will likely refine the implied probabilities as resolution nears.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間： Sep 1, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
交易量
$164結束日期
2026-09-03市場開放時間
Sep 1, 2026, 12:56 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Traders see the tightest contest between 38°C and 39°C because ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS show Madrid’s maximum on September 3 hovering near those thresholds under a strong subtropical ridge. Warm southerly advection from North Africa, combined with clear skies and light winds that limit mixing, supports peak readings in this range, while minor differences in modeled cloud timing or boundary-layer moisture could shift the outcome by 1°C. Historical early-September baselines for Madrid average 30–32°C, making this setup an anomalous heat event whose exact intensity remains sensitive to small forecast adjustments. AEMET updates and new model runs over the next 48 hours will likely refine the implied probabilities as resolution nears.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$164結束日期
2026-09-03市場開放時間
Sep 1, 2026, 12:56 AM ETTraders see the tightest contest between 38°C and 39°C because ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS show Madrid’s maximum on September 3 hovering near those thresholds under a strong subtropical ridge. Warm southerly advection from North Africa, combined with clear skies and light winds that limit mixing, supports peak readings in this range, while minor differences in modeled cloud timing or boundary-layer moisture could shift the outcome by 1°C. Historical early-September baselines for Madrid average 30–32°C, making this setup an anomalous heat event whose exact intensity remains sensitive to small forecast adjustments. AEMET updates and new model runs over the next 48 hours will likely refine the implied probabilities as resolution nears.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions