Current forecasts from multiple models indicate minimum temperatures in Madrid on September 3 around 20–24°C under clear, high-pressure conditions with light winds, though historical early-September baselines near 17–18°C and radiative cooling overnight introduce model spread. With market-implied odds clustered tightly between 18°C or below (51.5%) and 20–22°C (41–46%), traders appear focused on uncertainty in nocturnal boundary-layer cooling rates and any late adjustments from GFS or ECMWF runs ahead of the resolution window. Dry air and minimal cloud cover favor efficient heat loss after sunset, but persistent warmth aloft could limit drops below 19°C. Updated agency guidance expected within 24–48 hours will likely sharpen the range.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於9月3日馬德裏最低氣溫？
9月3日馬德裏最低氣溫？
26°C 87%
22°C 86%
23°C 86%
25°C 85%
最新
最新
2026-09-03
18°C or below
52%
19°C
45%
20°C
47%
21°C
44%
22°C
86%
23°C
86%
24°C
2%
25°C
85%
26°C
87%
27°C
8%
28°C or higher
42%
26°C 87%
22°C 86%
23°C 86%
25°C 85%
最新
最新
2026-09-03
18°C or below
$0 交易量
52%
19°C
$0 交易量
45%
20°C
$0 交易量
47%
21°C
$0 交易量
44%
22°C
$5 交易量
86%
23°C
$5 交易量
86%
24°C
$5 交易量
2%
25°C
$5 交易量
85%
26°C
$5 交易量
87%
27°C
$5 交易量
8%
28°C or higher
$5 交易量
42%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecasts from multiple models indicate minimum temperatures in Madrid on September 3 around 20–24°C under clear, high-pressure conditions with light winds, though historical early-September baselines near 17–18°C and radiative cooling overnight introduce model spread. With market-implied odds clustered tightly between 18°C or below (51.5%) and 20–22°C (41–46%), traders appear focused on uncertainty in nocturnal boundary-layer cooling rates and any late adjustments from GFS or ECMWF runs ahead of the resolution window. Dry air and minimal cloud cover favor efficient heat loss after sunset, but persistent warmth aloft could limit drops below 19°C. Updated agency guidance expected within 24–48 hours will likely sharpen the range.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間： Sep 1, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
交易量
$35結束日期
2026-09-03市場開放時間
Sep 1, 2026, 12:30 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecasts from multiple models indicate minimum temperatures in Madrid on September 3 around 20–24°C under clear, high-pressure conditions with light winds, though historical early-September baselines near 17–18°C and radiative cooling overnight introduce model spread. With market-implied odds clustered tightly between 18°C or below (51.5%) and 20–22°C (41–46%), traders appear focused on uncertainty in nocturnal boundary-layer cooling rates and any late adjustments from GFS or ECMWF runs ahead of the resolution window. Dry air and minimal cloud cover favor efficient heat loss after sunset, but persistent warmth aloft could limit drops below 19°C. Updated agency guidance expected within 24–48 hours will likely sharpen the range.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$35結束日期
2026-09-03市場開放時間
Sep 1, 2026, 12:30 AM ETCurrent forecasts from multiple models indicate minimum temperatures in Madrid on September 3 around 20–24°C under clear, high-pressure conditions with light winds, though historical early-September baselines near 17–18°C and radiative cooling overnight introduce model spread. With market-implied odds clustered tightly between 18°C or below (51.5%) and 20–22°C (41–46%), traders appear focused on uncertainty in nocturnal boundary-layer cooling rates and any late adjustments from GFS or ECMWF runs ahead of the resolution window. Dry air and minimal cloud cover favor efficient heat loss after sunset, but persistent warmth aloft could limit drops below 19°C. Updated agency guidance expected within 24–48 hours will likely sharpen the range.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions