Trader consensus shows notable uncertainty in Miami's overnight minimum for July 13, with the 73°F-or-below outcome at 39% implied probability closely matched by the 80–81°F and 82–83°F bins near 38%. Key scientific drivers include subtropical ridge positioning that modulates wind flow and moisture advection from the warm Gulf Stream, plus variable cloud cover and potential convective activity that alter radiative cooling rates. National Weather Service ensemble guidance exhibits spread in boundary-layer humidity and low-level wind shear, which can shift minima by several degrees. July climatology places typical lows near 76–78°F, underscoring how small forecast deviations in these factors sustain the dispersed market odds ahead of the next model update cycle.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議,也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於7月13日邁阿密的最低溫度?
82-83°F 88%
78-79°F 10%
華氏73度或以下 <1%
76-77°F <1%
$6,940 交易量
$6,940 交易量
華氏73度或以下
1%
74-75°F
<1%
76-77°F
<1%
78-79°F
10%
80-81°F
36%
82-83°F
65%
84-85°F
<1%
86-87°F
<1%
88-89°F
<1%
90-91°F
<1%
92°F或以上
<1%
82-83°F 88%
78-79°F 10%
華氏73度或以下 <1%
76-77°F <1%
$6,940 交易量
$6,940 交易量
華氏73度或以下
1%
74-75°F
<1%
76-77°F
<1%
78-79°F
10%
80-81°F
36%
82-83°F
65%
84-85°F
<1%
86-87°F
<1%
88-89°F
<1%
90-91°F
<1%
92°F或以上
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Miami Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間: Jul 11, 2026, 11:30 PM ET
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Miami Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Trader consensus shows notable uncertainty in Miami's overnight minimum for July 13, with the 73°F-or-below outcome at 39% implied probability closely matched by the 80–81°F and 82–83°F bins near 38%. Key scientific drivers include subtropical ridge positioning that modulates wind flow and moisture advection from the warm Gulf Stream, plus variable cloud cover and potential convective activity that alter radiative cooling rates. National Weather Service ensemble guidance exhibits spread in boundary-layer humidity and low-level wind shear, which can shift minima by several degrees. July climatology places typical lows near 76–78°F, underscoring how small forecast deviations in these factors sustain the dispersed market odds ahead of the next model update cycle.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議,也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions