**Strong surveillance data and containment of current outbreaks underpin the 94.5% market-implied probability that no new pandemic will be declared in 2026.** The largest ongoing threat, the Bundibugyo Ebola virus disease outbreak in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, has produced thousands of cases since May but remains classified by WHO as very high risk locally and low globally, with no sustained chains of international transmission. Similar patterns hold for mpox, hantavirus clusters, Nipah, and seasonal respiratory viruses, none of which meet pandemic criteria of widespread, efficient human-to-human spread. Official risk assessments from WHO and CDC emphasize effective detection and border measures that have so far prevented escalation. A realistic challenge would require emergence of a novel pathogen exhibiting sustained community transmission or an abrupt geographic expansion of an existing hemorrhagic fever beyond current containment capacity.