Recent diplomatic efforts have centered on a U.S.-brokered three-day ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine from May 9 to 11, accompanied by a mutual exchange of 1,000 prisoners each. Both sides publicly confirmed the pause in all kinetic military activity ahead of Russia’s Victory Day commemorations, with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Russian officials coordinating through American intermediaries. This development follows earlier trilateral talks in Geneva and Abu Dhabi focused on monitoring mechanisms and territorial issues. Russian President Vladimir Putin has since indicated the broader conflict may be approaching resolution and expressed openness to a meeting with Zelenskyy once a comprehensive accord is reached. These steps, combined with ongoing bilateral negotiations, shape trader assessments of whether an official, mutually agreed halt in hostilities will be formalized by late May.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於$667,445 交易量
2026-12-31
5月31日
3%
6月30日
12%
10月31日
38%
12月31日
51%
$667,445 交易量
5月31日
$290,349 交易量
3%
6月30日
$197,660 交易量
12%
10月31日
$57,080 交易量
38%
12月31日
$122,356 交易量
51%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement.
Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.
If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.Recent diplomatic efforts have centered on a U.S.-brokered three-day ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine from May 9 to 11, accompanied by a mutual exchange of 1,000 prisoners each. Both sides publicly confirmed the pause in all kinetic military activity ahead of Russia’s Victory Day commemorations, with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Russian officials coordinating through American intermediaries. This development follows earlier trilateral talks in Geneva and Abu Dhabi focused on monitoring mechanisms and territorial issues. Russian President Vladimir Putin has since indicated the broader conflict may be approaching resolution and expressed openness to a meeting with Zelenskyy once a comprehensive accord is reached. These steps, combined with ongoing bilateral negotiations, shape trader assessments of whether an official, mutually agreed halt in hostilities will be formalized by late May.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement.
Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.
If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.
A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement.
Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.
If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.
市場開放時間： May 12, 2026, 11:28 PM ET
交易量
$667,445結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
May 12, 2026, 11:28 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement.
Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.
If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.Recent diplomatic efforts have centered on a U.S.-brokered three-day ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine from May 9 to 11, accompanied by a mutual exchange of 1,000 prisoners each. Both sides publicly confirmed the pause in all kinetic military activity ahead of Russia’s Victory Day commemorations, with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Russian officials coordinating through American intermediaries. This development follows earlier trilateral talks in Geneva and Abu Dhabi focused on monitoring mechanisms and territorial issues. Russian President Vladimir Putin has since indicated the broader conflict may be approaching resolution and expressed openness to a meeting with Zelenskyy once a comprehensive accord is reached. These steps, combined with ongoing bilateral negotiations, shape trader assessments of whether an official, mutually agreed halt in hostilities will be formalized by late May.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement.
Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.
If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.
A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement.
Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.
If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$667,445結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
May 12, 2026, 11:28 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent diplomatic efforts have centered on a U.S.-brokered three-day ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine from May 9 to 11, accompanied by a mutual exchange of 1,000 prisoners each. Both sides publicly confirmed the pause in all kinetic military activity ahead of Russia’s Victory Day commemorations, with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Russian officials coordinating through American intermediaries. This development follows earlier trilateral talks in Geneva and Abu Dhabi focused on monitoring mechanisms and territorial issues. Russian President Vladimir Putin has since indicated the broader conflict may be approaching resolution and expressed openness to a meeting with Zelenskyy once a comprehensive accord is reached. These steps, combined with ongoing bilateral negotiations, shape trader assessments of whether an official, mutually agreed halt in hostilities will be formalized by late May.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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