US diplomatic pressure under the Trump administration has driven recent Russia-Ukraine ceasefire talks, including trilateral meetings in Geneva and Abu Dhabi earlier in 2026 and a previously floated June deadline. Core sticking points remain Russian demands for Ukrainian neutrality, territorial concessions in Donbas and elsewhere, and security limits, contrasted with Kyiv's insistence on binding guarantees against future aggression and monitoring mechanisms. In early June, President Putin rejected an immediate in-person meeting with Zelenskyy, citing insufficient progress toward Moscow's objectives, while E3 ambassadors urged direct negotiations in Moscow. Temporary pauses, such as the May 9-11 ceasefire with prisoner swaps, saw mutual violation accusations, and broader talks have paused amid competing US priorities. These dynamics leave traders focused on whether sustained US leverage can overcome entrenched positions before year-end windows.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於$3,711,165 交易量
2026-12-31
6月30日
5%
10月31日
31%
12月31日
47%
$3,711,165 交易量
6月30日
$878,693 交易量
5%
10月31日
$238,564 交易量
31%
12月31日
$1,776,793 交易量
47%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement.
Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.
If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.US diplomatic pressure under the Trump administration has driven recent Russia-Ukraine ceasefire talks, including trilateral meetings in Geneva and Abu Dhabi earlier in 2026 and a previously floated June deadline. Core sticking points remain Russian demands for Ukrainian neutrality, territorial concessions in Donbas and elsewhere, and security limits, contrasted with Kyiv's insistence on binding guarantees against future aggression and monitoring mechanisms. In early June, President Putin rejected an immediate in-person meeting with Zelenskyy, citing insufficient progress toward Moscow's objectives, while E3 ambassadors urged direct negotiations in Moscow. Temporary pauses, such as the May 9-11 ceasefire with prisoner swaps, saw mutual violation accusations, and broader talks have paused amid competing US priorities. These dynamics leave traders focused on whether sustained US leverage can overcome entrenched positions before year-end windows.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement.
Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.
If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.
A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement.
Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.
If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.
市場開放時間： May 12, 2026, 11:28 PM ET
交易量
$3,711,165結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
May 12, 2026, 11:28 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement.
Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.
If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.US diplomatic pressure under the Trump administration has driven recent Russia-Ukraine ceasefire talks, including trilateral meetings in Geneva and Abu Dhabi earlier in 2026 and a previously floated June deadline. Core sticking points remain Russian demands for Ukrainian neutrality, territorial concessions in Donbas and elsewhere, and security limits, contrasted with Kyiv's insistence on binding guarantees against future aggression and monitoring mechanisms. In early June, President Putin rejected an immediate in-person meeting with Zelenskyy, citing insufficient progress toward Moscow's objectives, while E3 ambassadors urged direct negotiations in Moscow. Temporary pauses, such as the May 9-11 ceasefire with prisoner swaps, saw mutual violation accusations, and broader talks have paused amid competing US priorities. These dynamics leave traders focused on whether sustained US leverage can overcome entrenched positions before year-end windows.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement.
Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.
If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.
A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement.
Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.
If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$3,711,165結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
May 12, 2026, 11:28 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...US diplomatic pressure under the Trump administration has driven recent Russia-Ukraine ceasefire talks, including trilateral meetings in Geneva and Abu Dhabi earlier in 2026 and a previously floated June deadline. Core sticking points remain Russian demands for Ukrainian neutrality, territorial concessions in Donbas and elsewhere, and security limits, contrasted with Kyiv's insistence on binding guarantees against future aggression and monitoring mechanisms. In early June, President Putin rejected an immediate in-person meeting with Zelenskyy, citing insufficient progress toward Moscow's objectives, while E3 ambassadors urged direct negotiations in Moscow. Temporary pauses, such as the May 9-11 ceasefire with prisoner swaps, saw mutual violation accusations, and broader talks have paused amid competing US priorities. These dynamics leave traders focused on whether sustained US leverage can overcome entrenched positions before year-end windows.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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