The closely matched market-implied odds around 50% for multiple unnamed labs and 41.5% for OpenAI reflect deep uncertainty over which AI agent developer will rank second by late November. Traders are weighing demonstrated capabilities in autonomous tool use, multi-step reasoning, and benchmark performance across large language model releases from OpenAI, Anthropic, and emerging players like DeepSeek or Moonshot. Key differentiators include recent model updates expanding agentic features, developer ecosystem adoption, and competitive positioning against frontrunners, with historical patterns showing rapid shifts from new releases or capability demonstrations that could still alter consensus before resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於OpenAI 37%
Anthropic 26%
Mistral 22%
Meta 14%
最新
最新
2026-11-30
OpenAI
37%
Anthropic
40%
Mistral
22%
Meta
14%
騰訊
14%
SpaceXAI
14%
DeepSeek
14%
小米
14%
13%
MiniMax
13%
Nvidia
13%
字節跳動
13%
微軟
12%
阿里巴巴
11%
Moonshot
11%
美團
10%
Z.ai
9%
亞馬遜
9%
百度
9%
OpenAI 37%
Anthropic 26%
Mistral 22%
Meta 14%
最新
最新
2026-11-30
OpenAI
$42 交易量
37%
Anthropic
$20 交易量
40%
Mistral
$0 交易量
22%
Meta
$0 交易量
14%
騰訊
$0 交易量
14%
SpaceXAI
$0 交易量
14%
DeepSeek
$0 交易量
14%
小米
$0 交易量
14%
$0 交易量
13%
MiniMax
$0 交易量
13%
Nvidia
$0 交易量
13%
字節跳動
$0 交易量
13%
微軟
$0 交易量
12%
阿里巴巴
$0 交易量
11%
Moonshot
$0 交易量
11%
美團
$0 交易量
10%
Z.ai
$0 交易量
9%
亞馬遜
$0 交易量
9%
百度
$0 交易量
9%
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Labs" is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".The closely matched market-implied odds around 50% for multiple unnamed labs and 41.5% for OpenAI reflect deep uncertainty over which AI agent developer will rank second by late November. Traders are weighing demonstrated capabilities in autonomous tool use, multi-step reasoning, and benchmark performance across large language model releases from OpenAI, Anthropic, and emerging players like DeepSeek or Moonshot. Key differentiators include recent model updates expanding agentic features, developer ecosystem adoption, and competitive positioning against frontrunners, with historical patterns showing rapid shifts from new releases or capability demonstrations that could still alter consensus before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Labs" is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
市場開放時間： Sep 17, 2026, 8:03 PM ET
交易量
$62結束日期
2026-12-01市場開放時間
Sep 17, 2026, 8:03 PM ETThis market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Labs" is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".The closely matched market-implied odds around 50% for multiple unnamed labs and 41.5% for OpenAI reflect deep uncertainty over which AI agent developer will rank second by late November. Traders are weighing demonstrated capabilities in autonomous tool use, multi-step reasoning, and benchmark performance across large language model releases from OpenAI, Anthropic, and emerging players like DeepSeek or Moonshot. Key differentiators include recent model updates expanding agentic features, developer ecosystem adoption, and competitive positioning against frontrunners, with historical patterns showing rapid shifts from new releases or capability demonstrations that could still alter consensus before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Labs" is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
交易量
$62結束日期
2026-12-01市場開放時間
Sep 17, 2026, 8:03 PM ETThe closely matched market-implied odds around 50% for multiple unnamed labs and 41.5% for OpenAI reflect deep uncertainty over which AI agent developer will rank second by late November. Traders are weighing demonstrated capabilities in autonomous tool use, multi-step reasoning, and benchmark performance across large language model releases from OpenAI, Anthropic, and emerging players like DeepSeek or Moonshot. Key differentiators include recent model updates expanding agentic features, developer ecosystem adoption, and competitive positioning against frontrunners, with historical patterns showing rapid shifts from new releases or capability demonstrations that could still alter consensus before resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
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