**Spider-Man: Brand New Day**'s record $360 million domestic opening weekend, which surpassed Avengers: Endgame, drives the market's strong consensus toward a sub-$180 million second-weekend gross at 69.5% implied probability. Such outsized debuts typically produce steep 50-60% drops as front-loaded audiences exit, a pattern reinforced by the film's strong but not exceptional critical reception around 90% on Rotten Tomatoes and its quick global $1 billion milestone. Traders weigh this against positive word-of-mouth and Tom Holland's draw while noting competition from The Odyssey and the MCU's history of shorter theatrical legs. The next chart update and early tracking estimates for the August 7-9 frame remain the key near-term catalysts that could shift the 9% chance attached to a $220 million-plus hold.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於"Spider-Man: Brand New Day" 2nd Weekend Box Office
"Spider-Man: Brand New Day" 2nd Weekend Box Office
<180m 70%
2.2億以上 10%
2億-2.1億 9%
2億1千萬-2億2千萬 8%
最新
最新
2026-08-09
<180m
70%
1億8千萬-1億9千萬
8%
190-200m
7%
2億-2.1億
9%
2億1千萬-2億2千萬
8%
2.2億以上
10%
<180m 70%
2.2億以上 10%
2億-2.1億 9%
2億1千萬-2億2千萬 8%
最新
最新
2026-08-09
<180m
$2,434 交易量
70%
1億8千萬-1億9千萬
$489 交易量
8%
190-200m
$489 交易量
7%
2億-2.1億
$555 交易量
9%
2億1千萬-2億2千萬
$734 交易量
8%
2.2億以上
$2,091 交易量
10%
This market will resolve according to how much "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its second weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day weekend (August 7 - 9) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by August 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.**Spider-Man: Brand New Day**'s record $360 million domestic opening weekend, which surpassed Avengers: Endgame, drives the market's strong consensus toward a sub-$180 million second-weekend gross at 69.5% implied probability. Such outsized debuts typically produce steep 50-60% drops as front-loaded audiences exit, a pattern reinforced by the film's strong but not exceptional critical reception around 90% on Rotten Tomatoes and its quick global $1 billion milestone. Traders weigh this against positive word-of-mouth and Tom Holland's draw while noting competition from The Odyssey and the MCU's history of shorter theatrical legs. The next chart update and early tracking estimates for the August 7-9 frame remain the key near-term catalysts that could shift the 9% chance attached to a $220 million-plus hold.
This market will resolve according to how much "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its second weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day weekend (August 7 - 9) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by August 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by August 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
市場開放時間： Aug 3, 2026, 8:32 PM ET
交易量
$6,791結束日期
2026-08-09市場開放時間
Aug 3, 2026, 8:32 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to how much "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its second weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day weekend (August 7 - 9) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by August 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.**Spider-Man: Brand New Day**'s record $360 million domestic opening weekend, which surpassed Avengers: Endgame, drives the market's strong consensus toward a sub-$180 million second-weekend gross at 69.5% implied probability. Such outsized debuts typically produce steep 50-60% drops as front-loaded audiences exit, a pattern reinforced by the film's strong but not exceptional critical reception around 90% on Rotten Tomatoes and its quick global $1 billion milestone. Traders weigh this against positive word-of-mouth and Tom Holland's draw while noting competition from The Odyssey and the MCU's history of shorter theatrical legs. The next chart update and early tracking estimates for the August 7-9 frame remain the key near-term catalysts that could shift the 9% chance attached to a $220 million-plus hold.
This market will resolve according to how much "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its second weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day weekend (August 7 - 9) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by August 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by August 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
交易量
$6,791結束日期
2026-08-09市場開放時間
Aug 3, 2026, 8:32 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Spider-Man: Brand New Day**'s record $360 million domestic opening weekend, which surpassed Avengers: Endgame, drives the market's strong consensus toward a sub-$180 million second-weekend gross at 69.5% implied probability. Such outsized debuts typically produce steep 50-60% drops as front-loaded audiences exit, a pattern reinforced by the film's strong but not exceptional critical reception around 90% on Rotten Tomatoes and its quick global $1 billion milestone. Traders weigh this against positive word-of-mouth and Tom Holland's draw while noting competition from The Odyssey and the MCU's history of shorter theatrical legs. The next chart update and early tracking estimates for the August 7-9 frame remain the key near-term catalysts that could shift the 9% chance attached to a $220 million-plus hold.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
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