Google and Alibaba lead market-implied odds for third place on the Text Arena math leaderboard by end of October due to their sustained edge in quantitative reasoning benchmarks. Alibaba’s Qwen series has long specialized in competition-level math, while recent 2026 updates to Google’s Gemini models have narrowed gaps on live arenas and fresh contest problems. OpenAI and Moonshot trail in implied probability because their frontier reasoning systems, though strong overall, face tighter competition in uncontaminated math evaluations tracked by platforms like MathArena. Traders weigh rapid iteration cycles among Chinese labs against U.S. scaling advantages, noting that small benchmark swings or new model releases could reorder the top tier before resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於Google 26%
阿里巴巴 24%
OpenAI 14%
Moonshot 11%
$16,804 交易量
$16,804 交易量
2026-10-31
32%
阿里巴巴
24%
OpenAI
14%
Moonshot
11%
Meta
9%
Anthropic
7%
Z.ai
7%
美團
6%
Nvidia
4%
百度
4%
字節跳動
4%
Mistral
2%
MiniMax
2%
SpaceXAI
1%
DeepSeek
1%
騰訊
1%
亞馬遜
1%
小米
1%
StepFun
<1%
微軟
<1%
Google 26%
阿里巴巴 24%
OpenAI 14%
Moonshot 11%
$16,804 交易量
$16,804 交易量
2026-10-31
$5,899 交易量
32%
阿里巴巴
$5,533 交易量
24%
OpenAI
$435 交易量
14%
Moonshot
$382 交易量
11%
Meta
$240 交易量
9%
Anthropic
$251 交易量
7%
Z.ai
$390 交易量
7%
美團
$631 交易量
6%
Nvidia
$304 交易量
4%
百度
$266 交易量
4%
字節跳動
$314 交易量
4%
Mistral
$325 交易量
2%
MiniMax
$313 交易量
2%
SpaceXAI
$231 交易量
1%
DeepSeek
$230 交易量
1%
騰訊
$221 交易量
1%
亞馬遜
$236 交易量
1%
小米
$236 交易量
1%
StepFun
$184 交易量
<1%
微軟
$184 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Google and Alibaba lead market-implied odds for third place on the Text Arena math leaderboard by end of October due to their sustained edge in quantitative reasoning benchmarks. Alibaba’s Qwen series has long specialized in competition-level math, while recent 2026 updates to Google’s Gemini models have narrowed gaps on live arenas and fresh contest problems. OpenAI and Moonshot trail in implied probability because their frontier reasoning systems, though strong overall, face tighter competition in uncontaminated math evaluations tracked by platforms like MathArena. Traders weigh rapid iteration cycles among Chinese labs against U.S. scaling advantages, noting that small benchmark swings or new model releases could reorder the top tier before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
市場開放時間： Aug 12, 2026, 7:54 PM ET
交易量
$16,804結束日期
2026-10-31市場開放時間
Aug 12, 2026, 7:54 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Google and Alibaba lead market-implied odds for third place on the Text Arena math leaderboard by end of October due to their sustained edge in quantitative reasoning benchmarks. Alibaba’s Qwen series has long specialized in competition-level math, while recent 2026 updates to Google’s Gemini models have narrowed gaps on live arenas and fresh contest problems. OpenAI and Moonshot trail in implied probability because their frontier reasoning systems, though strong overall, face tighter competition in uncontaminated math evaluations tracked by platforms like MathArena. Traders weigh rapid iteration cycles among Chinese labs against U.S. scaling advantages, noting that small benchmark swings or new model releases could reorder the top tier before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
交易量
$16,804結束日期
2026-10-31市場開放時間
Aug 12, 2026, 7:54 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Google and Alibaba lead market-implied odds for third place on the Text Arena math leaderboard by end of October due to their sustained edge in quantitative reasoning benchmarks. Alibaba’s Qwen series has long specialized in competition-level math, while recent 2026 updates to Google’s Gemini models have narrowed gaps on live arenas and fresh contest problems. OpenAI and Moonshot trail in implied probability because their frontier reasoning systems, though strong overall, face tighter competition in uncontaminated math evaluations tracked by platforms like MathArena. Traders weigh rapid iteration cycles among Chinese labs against U.S. scaling advantages, noting that small benchmark swings or new model releases could reorder the top tier before resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions