Avengers: Doomsday leads trader sentiment for the second-biggest 2026 opening weekend at 65.5% implied probability, driven by its December 18 release timing and explosive early pre-sales that already outpaced prior MCU benchmarks. Spider-Man: Brand New Day’s record July 31 launch—$360 million domestic and nearly $932 million worldwide—has likely claimed the top spot, leaving Doomsday as the clearest candidate to follow. Earlier 2026 releases such as Toy Story 5’s $312 million global debut and upcoming titles like The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping and Dune: Messiah sit at minimal odds, reflecting more modest tracking and historical patterns for their franchises. Market consensus hinges on whether Doomsday can clear the elevated bar set by Brand New Day amid strong holiday competition.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議,也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於哪部電影在2026年首映週末排名第二?
Avengers: Doomsday 66%
Spider-Man: Brand New Day 37%
Toy Story 5 <1%
The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping <1%
$32,321 交易量
$32,321 交易量
Avengers: Doomsday
66%
Spider-Man: Brand New Day
37%
Toy Story 5
<1%
The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping
<1%
Dune: Messiah
<1%
Avengers: Doomsday 66%
Spider-Man: Brand New Day 37%
Toy Story 5 <1%
The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping <1%
$32,321 交易量
$32,321 交易量
Avengers: Doomsday
66%
Spider-Man: Brand New Day
37%
Toy Story 5
<1%
The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping
<1%
Dune: Messiah
<1%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses the second-most on its 3-day domestic opening weekend among all movies in 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The named movies will be primarily ranked by domestic opening weekend gross. If two or more movies are tied on domestic opening weekend gross, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the movies' listed titles. This market will resolve to the movie that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
Resolution will be based specifically on the figures provided for this movie's 3-day opening weekend (Friday, Saturday, Sunday), regardless of whether the movie has a 4 or 5-day opening weekend.
If another movie's opening weekend box office performance surpasses the 2nd-place ranking after numbers for both are finalized, this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
市場開放時間: Jul 23, 2026, 11:25 AM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses the second-most on its 3-day domestic opening weekend among all movies in 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The named movies will be primarily ranked by domestic opening weekend gross. If two or more movies are tied on domestic opening weekend gross, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the movies' listed titles. This market will resolve to the movie that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
Resolution will be based specifically on the figures provided for this movie's 3-day opening weekend (Friday, Saturday, Sunday), regardless of whether the movie has a 4 or 5-day opening weekend.
If another movie's opening weekend box office performance surpasses the 2nd-place ranking after numbers for both are finalized, this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Avengers: Doomsday leads trader sentiment for the second-biggest 2026 opening weekend at 65.5% implied probability, driven by its December 18 release timing and explosive early pre-sales that already outpaced prior MCU benchmarks. Spider-Man: Brand New Day’s record July 31 launch—$360 million domestic and nearly $932 million worldwide—has likely claimed the top spot, leaving Doomsday as the clearest candidate to follow. Earlier 2026 releases such as Toy Story 5’s $312 million global debut and upcoming titles like The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping and Dune: Messiah sit at minimal odds, reflecting more modest tracking and historical patterns for their franchises. Market consensus hinges on whether Doomsday can clear the elevated bar set by Brand New Day amid strong holiday competition.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議,也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions