**Trader consensus favoring “No” at 84.2% reflects the absence of any new formal signatory since Kazakhstan’s November 2025 accession and the short window remaining before the December 31, 2026 resolution date.** Saudi Arabia, the most frequently discussed candidate, continues to condition normalization on an irreversible pathway to Palestinian statehood—a requirement Israel’s current government has rejected. U.S. efforts to link a Saudi civil nuclear agreement to Abraham Accords membership have not altered Riyadh’s position. Discussions involving Syria, Somaliland, and other states have produced expressions of interest but no completed normalization agreements under the Accords framework. With Israeli elections scheduled for October 2026 and no major diplomatic summits or breakthroughs imminent, the structural barriers tied to the Palestinian issue and limited time left outweigh recent U.S. diplomatic pressure.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於是
16% 機率
$300,315 交易量
$300,315 交易量
2026-12-31
是
16% 機率
$300,315 交易量
$300,315 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any country not already a part of the Abraham Accords formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the framework of the Abraham Accords by December 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation.
Countries already part of the Abraham Accords as of June 26, 2025—including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan—will not count.
The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.**Trader consensus favoring “No” at 84.2% reflects the absence of any new formal signatory since Kazakhstan’s November 2025 accession and the short window remaining before the December 31, 2026 resolution date.**
Saudi Arabia, the most frequently discussed candidate, continues to condition normalization on an irreversible pathway to Palestinian statehood—a requirement Israel’s current government has rejected. U.S. efforts to link a Saudi civil nuclear agreement to Abraham Accords membership have not altered Riyadh’s position. Discussions involving Syria, Somaliland, and other states have produced expressions of interest but no completed normalization agreements under the Accords framework. With Israeli elections scheduled for October 2026 and no major diplomatic summits or breakthroughs imminent, the structural barriers tied to the Palestinian issue and limited time left outweigh recent U.S. diplomatic pressure.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any country not already a part of the Abraham Accords formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the framework of the Abraham Accords by December 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation.
Countries already part of the Abraham Accords as of June 26, 2025—including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan—will not count.
The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.
A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation.
Countries already part of the Abraham Accords as of June 26, 2025—including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan—will not count.
The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.
市場開放時間： Nov 5, 2025, 3:17 PM ET
交易量
$300,315結束日期
2027-01-01市場開放時間
Nov 5, 2025, 3:17 PM ETThis market will resolve to "Yes" if any country not already a part of the Abraham Accords formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the framework of the Abraham Accords by December 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation.
Countries already part of the Abraham Accords as of June 26, 2025—including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan—will not count.
The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.**Trader consensus favoring “No” at 84.2% reflects the absence of any new formal signatory since Kazakhstan’s November 2025 accession and the short window remaining before the December 31, 2026 resolution date.**
Saudi Arabia, the most frequently discussed candidate, continues to condition normalization on an irreversible pathway to Palestinian statehood—a requirement Israel’s current government has rejected. U.S. efforts to link a Saudi civil nuclear agreement to Abraham Accords membership have not altered Riyadh’s position. Discussions involving Syria, Somaliland, and other states have produced expressions of interest but no completed normalization agreements under the Accords framework. With Israeli elections scheduled for October 2026 and no major diplomatic summits or breakthroughs imminent, the structural barriers tied to the Palestinian issue and limited time left outweigh recent U.S. diplomatic pressure.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any country not already a part of the Abraham Accords formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the framework of the Abraham Accords by December 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation.
Countries already part of the Abraham Accords as of June 26, 2025—including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan—will not count.
The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.
A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation.
Countries already part of the Abraham Accords as of June 26, 2025—including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan—will not count.
The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$300,315結束日期
2027-01-01市場開放時間
Nov 5, 2025, 3:17 PM ET**Trader consensus favoring “No” at 84.2% reflects the absence of any new formal signatory since Kazakhstan’s November 2025 accession and the short window remaining before the December 31, 2026 resolution date.** Saudi Arabia, the most frequently discussed candidate, continues to condition normalization on an irreversible pathway to Palestinian statehood—a requirement Israel’s current government has rejected. U.S. efforts to link a Saudi civil nuclear agreement to Abraham Accords membership have not altered Riyadh’s position. Discussions involving Syria, Somaliland, and other states have produced expressions of interest but no completed normalization agreements under the Accords framework. With Israeli elections scheduled for October 2026 and no major diplomatic summits or breakthroughs imminent, the structural barriers tied to the Palestinian issue and limited time left outweigh recent U.S. diplomatic pressure.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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