Note on Middle East Markets: The promise of prediction markets is to harness the wisdom of the crowd to create accurate, unbiased forecasts for the most important events to society. That ability is particularly invaluable in gut-wrenching times like today. After discussing with those directly affected by the attacks, who had dozens of questions, we realized that prediction markets could give them the answers they needed in ways TV news and 𝕏 could not.
On October 9, 2025 Israel and Hamas signed a deal implementing a ceasefire: https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israel-hamas-agree-gaza-ceasefire-return-hostages-2025-10-09/
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a either Israel or Hamas announce the cancellation of the ongoing ceasefire, or if a consensus of credible reporting confirms that the ceasefire is no longer in effect, by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
Announcements that one side or another violated the ongoing ceasefire will not be enough to resolve this market to "Yes"; only a definitive announcement by Israel or Hamas, or otherwise a wide consensus of credible reporting that that the ceasefire has been ended, will qualify to resolve this market to "Yes".
The primary solution resolution source will be official information from Hamas or the government of Israel, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.On October 9, 2025 Israel and Hamas signed a deal implementing a ceasefire: https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israel-hamas-agree-gaza-ceasefire-return-hostages-2025-10-09/
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a either Israel or Hamas announce the cancellation of the ongoing ceasefire, or if a consensus of credible reporting confirms that the ceasefire is no longer in effect, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
Announcements that one side or another violated the ongoing ceasefire will not be enough to resolve this market to "Yes"; only a definitive announcement by Israel or Hamas, or otherwise a wide consensus of credible reporting that that the ceasefire has been ended, will qualify to resolve this market to "Yes".
The primary solution resolution source will be official information from Hamas or the government of Israel, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.On October 9, Israel and Hamas signed a deal implementing a ceasefire: https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israel-hamas-agree-gaza-ceasefire-return-hostages-2025-10-09/
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a either Israel or Hamas announce the cancellation of the ongoing ceasefire, or if a consensus of credible reporting confirms that the ceasefire is no longer in effect, by October 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
Announcements that one side or another violated the ongoing ceasefire will not be enough to resolve this market to "Yes"; only a definitive announcement by Israel or Hamas, or otherwise a wide consensus of credible reporting that that the ceasefire has been ended, will qualify to resolve this market to "Yes".
The primary solution resolution source will be official information from Hamas or the government of Israel, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.On October 9, Israel and Hamas signed a deal implementing a ceasefire: https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israel-hamas-agree-gaza-ceasefire-return-hostages-2025-10-09/
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a either Israel or Hamas announce the cancellation of the ongoing ceasefire, or if a consensus of credible reporting confirms that the ceasefire is no longer in effect, by November 7, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
Announcements that one side or another violated the ongoing ceasefire will not be enough to resolve this market to "Yes"; only a definitive announcement by Israel or Hamas, or otherwise a wide consensus of credible reporting that that the ceasefire has been ended, will qualify to resolve this market to "Yes".
The primary solution resolution source will be official information from Hamas or the government of Israel, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.On October 9, Israel and Hamas signed a deal implementing a ceasefire: https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israel-hamas-agree-gaza-ceasefire-return-hostages-2025-10-09/
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a either Israel or Hamas announce the cancellation of the ongoing ceasefire, or if a consensus of credible reporting confirms that the ceasefire is no longer in effect, by November 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
Announcements that one side or another violated the ongoing ceasefire will not be enough to resolve this market to "Yes"; only a definitive announcement by Israel or Hamas, or otherwise a wide consensus of credible reporting that that the ceasefire has been ended, will qualify to resolve this market to "Yes".
The primary solution resolution source will be official information from Hamas or the government of Israel, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.On October 9, Israel and Hamas signed a deal implementing a ceasefire: https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israel-hamas-agree-gaza-ceasefire-return-hostages-2025-10-09/
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a either Israel or Hamas announce the cancellation of the ongoing ceasefire, or if a consensus of credible reporting confirms that the ceasefire is no longer in effect, by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
Announcements that one side or another violated the ongoing ceasefire will not be enough to resolve this market to "Yes"; only a definitive announcement by Israel or Hamas, or otherwise a wide consensus of credible reporting that that the ceasefire has been ended, will qualify to resolve this market to "Yes".
The primary solution resolution source will be official information from Hamas or the government of Israel, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.On October 9, Israel and Hamas signed a deal implementing a ceasefire: https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israel-hamas-agree-gaza-ceasefire-return-hostages-2025-10-09/
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a either Israel or Hamas announce the cancellation of the ongoing ceasefire, or if a consensus of credible reporting confirms that the ceasefire is no longer in effect, by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
Announcements that one side or another violated the ongoing ceasefire will not be enough to resolve this market to "Yes"; only a definitive announcement by Israel or Hamas, or otherwise a wide consensus of credible reporting that that the ceasefire has been ended, will qualify to resolve this market to "Yes".
The primary solution resolution source will be official information from Hamas or the government of Israel, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The fragile October 2025 Israel-Hamas ceasefire under the U.S.-brokered framework remains formally in effect but faces repeated strains from mutual violations and stalled implementation of Phase II. Israel maintains control of roughly 53-59% of Gaza territory along the “yellow line” while conducting near-daily strikes that have killed hundreds of Palestinians since the truce began, citing threats from Hamas operatives. Hamas has rejected disarmament proposals tied to reconstruction or governance reforms by the Board of Peace and National Committee for the Administration of Gaza, insisting instead on full Israeli withdrawal, unrestricted aid flows, and permanent war termination. Recent Cairo talks in early June 2026 focused on aid corridors, border reopenings, and violation complaints, yet core disagreements over sequencing persist. These dynamics, alongside limited external pressure amid the 2026 Iran conflict, shape trader assessments of cancellation risks tied to escalation thresholds or negotiation breakdowns.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a either Israel or Hamas announce the cancellation of the ongoing ceasefire, or if a consensus of credible reporting confirms that the ceasefire is no longer in effect, by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
Announcements that one side or another violated the ongoing ceasefire will not be enough to resolve this market to "Yes"; only a definitive announcement by Israel or Hamas, or otherwise a wide consensus of credible reporting that that the ceasefire has been ended, will qualify to resolve this market to "Yes".
The primary solution resolution source will be official information from Hamas or the government of Israel, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
On October 9, 2025 Israel and Hamas signed a deal implementing a ceasefire: https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israel-hamas-agree-gaza-ceasefire-return-hostages-2025-10-09/
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a either Israel or Hamas announce the cancellation of the ongoing ceasefire, or if a consensus of credible reporting confirms that the ceasefire is no longer in effect, by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
Announcements that one side or another violated the ongoing ceasefire will not be enough to resolve this market to "Yes"; only a definitive announcement by Israel or Hamas, or otherwise a wide consensus of credible reporting that that the ceasefire has been ended, will qualify to resolve this market to "Yes".
The primary solution resolution source will be official information from Hamas or the government of Israel, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The fragile October 2025 Israel-Hamas ceasefire under the U.S.-brokered framework remains formally in effect but faces repeated strains from mutual violations and stalled implementation of Phase II. Israel maintains control of roughly 53-59% of Gaza territory along the “yellow line” while conducting near-daily strikes that have killed hundreds of Palestinians since the truce began, citing threats from Hamas operatives. Hamas has rejected disarmament proposals tied to reconstruction or governance reforms by the Board of Peace and National Committee for the Administration of Gaza, insisting instead on full Israeli withdrawal, unrestricted aid flows, and permanent war termination. Recent Cairo talks in early June 2026 focused on aid corridors, border reopenings, and violation complaints, yet core disagreements over sequencing persist. These dynamics, alongside limited external pressure amid the 2026 Iran conflict, shape trader assessments of cancellation risks tied to escalation thresholds or negotiation breakdowns.
Israeli Finance Minister Smotrich announces readiness to build three settlements in Gaza
June 30 dips to 1%1%
Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich declared that Israel is ready to begin building three Jewish settlements in northern Gaza once government approval is granted. This move reflects Israeli expansionist policies during the ceasefire period but does not constitute an official cancellation of the ceasefire by either party.
Jun 30 2026
Israeli forces continue strikes in Gaza despite ceasefire; UN reports ongoing violations
June 30 dips to 1%2%
Israeli strikes in Gaza continued during the nominal ceasefire, causing casualties and humanitarian concerns. The UN reported expansion of Israeli control and violations along the ceasefire line. However, no official announcement from Israel or Hamas declared the ceasefire cancelled, so the market continued to price low probability of cancellation.
Jun 29 2026
IDF warns Hamas is preparing to return to war; US opposes new Israeli offensive
June 30 rises to 12%2%
The Israeli Defense Forces warned that Hamas is rebuilding military infrastructure and preparing for renewed conflict, but the US opposed a new Israeli offensive, preferring to maintain the ceasefire and advance peace plans. This indicated ongoing tensions but no official ceasefire cancellation, contributing to market uncertainty and a slight price fluctuation.
Jun 14 2026
Palestinian death toll rises amid ongoing Israeli strikes despite ceasefire
June 30 dips to 1%4%
Despite the fragile ceasefire, Israeli strikes continued killing Palestinians in Gaza, with the death toll surpassing 73,000 since the war began. Both sides accused each other of violations, but no official ceasefire cancellation was declared by Israel or Hamas.
Jun 9 2026
Hamas reports progress in Cairo talks on Gaza ceasefire implementation
June 30 dips to 10%1%
Hamas announced acceptable approaches had been reached on contentious issues of the Gaza ceasefire following talks in Cairo. The discussions focused on humanitarian aid, reconstruction, and Israeli withdrawal, signaling some diplomatic progress though the ceasefire remained fragile.
May 24 2026
Hamas and Israel trade accusations over ceasefire breaches
On May 24, 2026, Hamas accused Israel of violating the ceasefire through military operations causing civilian displacement, while Israel reported killing terrorists in response. These mutual accusations highlighted ongoing tensions but no official cancellation of the ceasefire was announced.
May 24 2026
Hamas accuses Israel of violating Gaza ceasefire with strikes
June 30 dips to 1%2%
Hamas publicly accused Israel of breaching the ceasefire through military strikes on residential areas in Gaza, while Israel also accused Hamas of violations. These mutual accusations highlighted the ceasefire's fragility but did not constitute an official cancellation.
May 19 2026
Israel escalates attacks in Gaza amid ceasefire tensions
June 30 dips to 13%3%
Israel increased airstrikes in Gaza, citing imminent threats and Hamas rearming, while maintaining the ceasefire officially. This escalation raised fears of ceasefire breakdown but no formal cancellation was declared by either side.
May 13 2026
Board of Peace envoy says ceasefire stalled over Hamas disarmament
June 30 drops to 16%5%
Nickolay Mladenov, the US-backed Board of Peace envoy, stated the ceasefire was paralyzed due to Hamas not disarming, which stalled reconstruction and troop withdrawals. Hamas blamed Israel for violations, but no official ceasefire cancellation was announced, maintaining market uncertainty.
May 3 2026
Israel threatens Gaza war resumption to force Hamas disarmament
June 30 jumps to 20%10%
Israeli military officials warned of an almost inevitable new round of fighting due to Hamas' refusal to disarm and failures of the ceasefire's enforcement mechanisms. Israeli forces expanded control in Gaza, increasing tensions but no official ceasefire cancellation was declared.
May 3 2026
Israeli military official warns of likely renewed Gaza fighting over Hamas disarmament refusal
An Israeli military official stated that renewed fighting in Gaza was almost inevitable due to Hamas's refusal to disarm and the failure of international stabilization efforts, signaling a high risk of ceasefire collapse without formal cancellation.
Apr 28 2026
UN official warns Gaza ceasefire increasingly fragile amid ongoing Israeli strikes and Hamas armed activities
Assistant Secretary-General Khaled Khiari briefed the UN Security Council that the ceasefire was fragile due to continued Israeli airstrikes and armed activities by Hamas, with no agreement on disarmament, raising concerns about potential return to widespread hostilities.
Apr 13 2026
Israeli airstrikes kill Palestinians amid ceasefire talks with Hamas
June 30 dips to 26%2%
Israeli airstrikes killed at least four Palestinians in Gaza while mediators met with Hamas leaders to shore up the fragile ceasefire. The strikes underscored the ongoing violations and fragility of the truce despite diplomatic efforts.
Apr 9 2026
Hamas disarmament deadline expires; Israel prepares to resume Gaza war
June 30 dips to 28%3%
The US-imposed deadline for Hamas to accept disarmament expired without agreement, with Israel preparing for renewed combat operations. This raised fears of ceasefire collapse but no official cancellation was announced, causing market uncertainty.
Apr 2 2026
Hamas refuses to discuss disarmament without Israeli withdrawal guarantees
June 30 dips to 28%2%
Hamas told mediators it will not consider disarming unless Israel fully withdraws from Gaza as outlined in the disarmament plan. This stance has stalled progress on implementing the second phase of the ceasefire agreement, contributing to ongoing tensions.
Mar 27 2026
Israeli troops continue operations as ceasefire remains shaky but largely holds
Despite ongoing Israeli military operations against Hamas in Gaza and diplomatic efforts for disarmament, the ceasefire largely held through March 2026, reflecting a fragile but sustained truce without official cancellation announcements.
Mar 25 2026
US Ambassador urges Hamas to decommission weapons for Gaza rebuilding
June 30 jumps to 30%11%
US Ambassador to the UN Mike Waltz emphasized that Hamas must disarm to enable Gaza's reconstruction, reinforcing international pressure on Hamas and Israel to uphold ceasefire terms amid ongoing low-level clashes and Israeli operations.
Mar 18 2026
Israel resumes military operations in Gaza, ending January ceasefire
On March 18, 2026, Israel launched extensive airstrikes on Gaza, officially ending the ceasefire that began in January 2025. Israel cited Hamas's refusal to release hostages and rejection of ceasefire extension proposals as justification. This marked a significant escalation and collapse of the previous truce.
Mar 17 2026
Iran announces missile payload increase to one ton, signaling escalation
June 30 dips to 19%4%
Iran's Revolutionary Guard Aerospace Forces Commander Majid Mousavi stated that 'all missiles will carry a payload of no less than one ton', signaling an escalation in Iran's offensive capability.
Mar 10 2026
Iran rejects US ceasefire, threatens escalation against US, British and French bases
June 30 drops to 23%7%
Iran categorically rejected the ceasefire announced by Trump, calling it 'humiliating' and 'illegitimate', and announced it would attack US, British and French military bases in the region if operations continue.
Feb 21 2026
Israeli strikes kill at least 10 across Lebanon targeting Hezbollah and Hamas sites post-ceasefire
June 30 drops to 30%11%
Israel conducted airstrikes in Lebanon killing at least 10 people, targeting sites linked to Hezbollah and Hamas shortly after a ceasefire agreement, marking a potential violation of the fragile truce.
Feb 17 2026
Hamas rejects Netanyahu aide’s 60-day ultimatum to disarm
June 30 drops to 19%11%
Hamas publicly rejected the Israeli ultimatum demanding disarmament within 60 days, warning of serious regional repercussions and signaling resistance to ceasefire terms, which contributed to market uncertainty about ceasefire durability.
Jan 26 2026
Netanyahu states next ceasefire phase is disarming Hamas, not reconstruction
June 30 jumps to 38%8%
Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu declared that the next phase of the ceasefire focuses on disarming Hamas and demilitarizing Gaza, emphasizing ongoing security concerns and setting conditions for ceasefire progress, impacting market perceptions of ceasefire stability.
Jan 26 2026
Israel recovers remains of last hostage, clearing way for phase two of ceasefire
June 30 jumps to 38%8%
Israel announced the recovery of the last hostage's remains from Gaza, removing a major obstacle to advancing the ceasefire's second phase involving disarmament and governance changes. Hamas confirmed commitment to phase one obligations, supporting ceasefire continuation.
Jan 26 2026
Netanyahu announces next ceasefire phase to focus on disarming Hamas
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu stated that the next phase of the ceasefire would involve disarming Hamas and demilitarizing Gaza, signaling a hardening stance that increased tensions but did not end the ceasefire.
Jan 15 2026
US announces commencement of second phase of Gaza ceasefire plan
June 30 drops to 44%9%
US Special Envoy Steve Witkoff announced the start of the second phase of the ceasefire plan involving discussions on Hamas disarmament and Israeli withdrawal, but negotiations stalled amid ongoing Israeli strikes and Hamas refusal to disarm, maintaining the ceasefire without cancellation.
Jan 14 2026
US announces transition to second phase of Gaza ceasefire plan
June 30 drops to 45%8%
US envoy Steve Witkoff announced the move to phase two of the Gaza ceasefire plan, focusing on disarmament of Hamas and governance changes, signaling a key diplomatic step but met with skepticism due to unresolved root causes. This announcement influenced market expectations about the ceasefire's durability.
On October 9, 2025 Israel and Hamas signed a deal implementing a ceasefire: https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israel-hamas-agree-gaza-ceasefire-return-hostages-2025-10-09/
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a either Israel or Hamas announce the cancellation of the ongoing ceasefire, or if a consensus of credible reporting confirms that the ceasefire is no longer in effect, by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
Announcements that one side or another violated the ongoing ceasefire will not be enough to resolve this market to "Yes"; only a definitive announcement by Israel or Hamas, or otherwise a wide consensus of credible reporting that that the ceasefire has been ended, will qualify to resolve this market to "Yes".
The primary solution resolution source will be official information from Hamas or the government of Israel, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.On October 9, 2025 Israel and Hamas signed a deal implementing a ceasefire: https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israel-hamas-agree-gaza-ceasefire-return-hostages-2025-10-09/
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a either Israel or Hamas announce the cancellation of the ongoing ceasefire, or if a consensus of credible reporting confirms that the ceasefire is no longer in effect, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
Announcements that one side or another violated the ongoing ceasefire will not be enough to resolve this market to "Yes"; only a definitive announcement by Israel or Hamas, or otherwise a wide consensus of credible reporting that that the ceasefire has been ended, will qualify to resolve this market to "Yes".
The primary solution resolution source will be official information from Hamas or the government of Israel, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.On October 9, Israel and Hamas signed a deal implementing a ceasefire: https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israel-hamas-agree-gaza-ceasefire-return-hostages-2025-10-09/
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a either Israel or Hamas announce the cancellation of the ongoing ceasefire, or if a consensus of credible reporting confirms that the ceasefire is no longer in effect, by October 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
Announcements that one side or another violated the ongoing ceasefire will not be enough to resolve this market to "Yes"; only a definitive announcement by Israel or Hamas, or otherwise a wide consensus of credible reporting that that the ceasefire has been ended, will qualify to resolve this market to "Yes".
The primary solution resolution source will be official information from Hamas or the government of Israel, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.On October 9, Israel and Hamas signed a deal implementing a ceasefire: https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israel-hamas-agree-gaza-ceasefire-return-hostages-2025-10-09/
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a either Israel or Hamas announce the cancellation of the ongoing ceasefire, or if a consensus of credible reporting confirms that the ceasefire is no longer in effect, by November 7, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
Announcements that one side or another violated the ongoing ceasefire will not be enough to resolve this market to "Yes"; only a definitive announcement by Israel or Hamas, or otherwise a wide consensus of credible reporting that that the ceasefire has been ended, will qualify to resolve this market to "Yes".
The primary solution resolution source will be official information from Hamas or the government of Israel, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.On October 9, Israel and Hamas signed a deal implementing a ceasefire: https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israel-hamas-agree-gaza-ceasefire-return-hostages-2025-10-09/
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a either Israel or Hamas announce the cancellation of the ongoing ceasefire, or if a consensus of credible reporting confirms that the ceasefire is no longer in effect, by November 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
Announcements that one side or another violated the ongoing ceasefire will not be enough to resolve this market to "Yes"; only a definitive announcement by Israel or Hamas, or otherwise a wide consensus of credible reporting that that the ceasefire has been ended, will qualify to resolve this market to "Yes".
The primary solution resolution source will be official information from Hamas or the government of Israel, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.On October 9, Israel and Hamas signed a deal implementing a ceasefire: https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israel-hamas-agree-gaza-ceasefire-return-hostages-2025-10-09/
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a either Israel or Hamas announce the cancellation of the ongoing ceasefire, or if a consensus of credible reporting confirms that the ceasefire is no longer in effect, by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
Announcements that one side or another violated the ongoing ceasefire will not be enough to resolve this market to "Yes"; only a definitive announcement by Israel or Hamas, or otherwise a wide consensus of credible reporting that that the ceasefire has been ended, will qualify to resolve this market to "Yes".
The primary solution resolution source will be official information from Hamas or the government of Israel, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.On October 9, Israel and Hamas signed a deal implementing a ceasefire: https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israel-hamas-agree-gaza-ceasefire-return-hostages-2025-10-09/
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a either Israel or Hamas announce the cancellation of the ongoing ceasefire, or if a consensus of credible reporting confirms that the ceasefire is no longer in effect, by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
Announcements that one side or another violated the ongoing ceasefire will not be enough to resolve this market to "Yes"; only a definitive announcement by Israel or Hamas, or otherwise a wide consensus of credible reporting that that the ceasefire has been ended, will qualify to resolve this market to "Yes".
The primary solution resolution source will be official information from Hamas or the government of Israel, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The fragile October 2025 Israel-Hamas ceasefire under the U.S.-brokered framework remains formally in effect but faces repeated strains from mutual violations and stalled implementation of Phase II. Israel maintains control of roughly 53-59% of Gaza territory along the “yellow line” while conducting near-daily strikes that have killed hundreds of Palestinians since the truce began, citing threats from Hamas operatives. Hamas has rejected disarmament proposals tied to reconstruction or governance reforms by the Board of Peace and National Committee for the Administration of Gaza, insisting instead on full Israeli withdrawal, unrestricted aid flows, and permanent war termination. Recent Cairo talks in early June 2026 focused on aid corridors, border reopenings, and violation complaints, yet core disagreements over sequencing persist. These dynamics, alongside limited external pressure amid the 2026 Iran conflict, shape trader assessments of cancellation risks tied to escalation thresholds or negotiation breakdowns.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a either Israel or Hamas announce the cancellation of the ongoing ceasefire, or if a consensus of credible reporting confirms that the ceasefire is no longer in effect, by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
Announcements that one side or another violated the ongoing ceasefire will not be enough to resolve this market to "Yes"; only a definitive announcement by Israel or Hamas, or otherwise a wide consensus of credible reporting that that the ceasefire has been ended, will qualify to resolve this market to "Yes".
The primary solution resolution source will be official information from Hamas or the government of Israel, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
On October 9, 2025 Israel and Hamas signed a deal implementing a ceasefire: https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israel-hamas-agree-gaza-ceasefire-return-hostages-2025-10-09/
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a either Israel or Hamas announce the cancellation of the ongoing ceasefire, or if a consensus of credible reporting confirms that the ceasefire is no longer in effect, by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
Announcements that one side or another violated the ongoing ceasefire will not be enough to resolve this market to "Yes"; only a definitive announcement by Israel or Hamas, or otherwise a wide consensus of credible reporting that that the ceasefire has been ended, will qualify to resolve this market to "Yes".
The primary solution resolution source will be official information from Hamas or the government of Israel, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The fragile October 2025 Israel-Hamas ceasefire under the U.S.-brokered framework remains formally in effect but faces repeated strains from mutual violations and stalled implementation of Phase II. Israel maintains control of roughly 53-59% of Gaza territory along the “yellow line” while conducting near-daily strikes that have killed hundreds of Palestinians since the truce began, citing threats from Hamas operatives. Hamas has rejected disarmament proposals tied to reconstruction or governance reforms by the Board of Peace and National Committee for the Administration of Gaza, insisting instead on full Israeli withdrawal, unrestricted aid flows, and permanent war termination. Recent Cairo talks in early June 2026 focused on aid corridors, border reopenings, and violation complaints, yet core disagreements over sequencing persist. These dynamics, alongside limited external pressure amid the 2026 Iran conflict, shape trader assessments of cancellation risks tied to escalation thresholds or negotiation breakdowns.
Israeli Finance Minister Smotrich announces readiness to build three settlements in Gaza
June 30 dips to 1%1%
Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich declared that Israel is ready to begin building three Jewish settlements in northern Gaza once government approval is granted. This move reflects Israeli expansionist policies during the ceasefire period but does not constitute an official cancellation of the ceasefire by either party.
Jun 30 2026
Israeli forces continue strikes in Gaza despite ceasefire; UN reports ongoing violations
June 30 dips to 1%2%
Israeli strikes in Gaza continued during the nominal ceasefire, causing casualties and humanitarian concerns. The UN reported expansion of Israeli control and violations along the ceasefire line. However, no official announcement from Israel or Hamas declared the ceasefire cancelled, so the market continued to price low probability of cancellation.
Jun 29 2026
IDF warns Hamas is preparing to return to war; US opposes new Israeli offensive
June 30 rises to 12%2%
The Israeli Defense Forces warned that Hamas is rebuilding military infrastructure and preparing for renewed conflict, but the US opposed a new Israeli offensive, preferring to maintain the ceasefire and advance peace plans. This indicated ongoing tensions but no official ceasefire cancellation, contributing to market uncertainty and a slight price fluctuation.
Jun 14 2026
Palestinian death toll rises amid ongoing Israeli strikes despite ceasefire
June 30 dips to 1%4%
Despite the fragile ceasefire, Israeli strikes continued killing Palestinians in Gaza, with the death toll surpassing 73,000 since the war began. Both sides accused each other of violations, but no official ceasefire cancellation was declared by Israel or Hamas.
Jun 9 2026
Hamas reports progress in Cairo talks on Gaza ceasefire implementation
June 30 dips to 10%1%
Hamas announced acceptable approaches had been reached on contentious issues of the Gaza ceasefire following talks in Cairo. The discussions focused on humanitarian aid, reconstruction, and Israeli withdrawal, signaling some diplomatic progress though the ceasefire remained fragile.
May 24 2026
Hamas and Israel trade accusations over ceasefire breaches
On May 24, 2026, Hamas accused Israel of violating the ceasefire through military operations causing civilian displacement, while Israel reported killing terrorists in response. These mutual accusations highlighted ongoing tensions but no official cancellation of the ceasefire was announced.
May 24 2026
Hamas accuses Israel of violating Gaza ceasefire with strikes
June 30 dips to 1%2%
Hamas publicly accused Israel of breaching the ceasefire through military strikes on residential areas in Gaza, while Israel also accused Hamas of violations. These mutual accusations highlighted the ceasefire's fragility but did not constitute an official cancellation.
May 19 2026
Israel escalates attacks in Gaza amid ceasefire tensions
June 30 dips to 13%3%
Israel increased airstrikes in Gaza, citing imminent threats and Hamas rearming, while maintaining the ceasefire officially. This escalation raised fears of ceasefire breakdown but no formal cancellation was declared by either side.
May 13 2026
Board of Peace envoy says ceasefire stalled over Hamas disarmament
June 30 drops to 16%5%
Nickolay Mladenov, the US-backed Board of Peace envoy, stated the ceasefire was paralyzed due to Hamas not disarming, which stalled reconstruction and troop withdrawals. Hamas blamed Israel for violations, but no official ceasefire cancellation was announced, maintaining market uncertainty.
May 3 2026
Israel threatens Gaza war resumption to force Hamas disarmament
June 30 jumps to 20%10%
Israeli military officials warned of an almost inevitable new round of fighting due to Hamas' refusal to disarm and failures of the ceasefire's enforcement mechanisms. Israeli forces expanded control in Gaza, increasing tensions but no official ceasefire cancellation was declared.
May 3 2026
Israeli military official warns of likely renewed Gaza fighting over Hamas disarmament refusal
An Israeli military official stated that renewed fighting in Gaza was almost inevitable due to Hamas's refusal to disarm and the failure of international stabilization efforts, signaling a high risk of ceasefire collapse without formal cancellation.
Apr 28 2026
UN official warns Gaza ceasefire increasingly fragile amid ongoing Israeli strikes and Hamas armed activities
Assistant Secretary-General Khaled Khiari briefed the UN Security Council that the ceasefire was fragile due to continued Israeli airstrikes and armed activities by Hamas, with no agreement on disarmament, raising concerns about potential return to widespread hostilities.
Apr 13 2026
Israeli airstrikes kill Palestinians amid ceasefire talks with Hamas
June 30 dips to 26%2%
Israeli airstrikes killed at least four Palestinians in Gaza while mediators met with Hamas leaders to shore up the fragile ceasefire. The strikes underscored the ongoing violations and fragility of the truce despite diplomatic efforts.
Apr 9 2026
Hamas disarmament deadline expires; Israel prepares to resume Gaza war
June 30 dips to 28%3%
The US-imposed deadline for Hamas to accept disarmament expired without agreement, with Israel preparing for renewed combat operations. This raised fears of ceasefire collapse but no official cancellation was announced, causing market uncertainty.
Apr 2 2026
Hamas refuses to discuss disarmament without Israeli withdrawal guarantees
June 30 dips to 28%2%
Hamas told mediators it will not consider disarming unless Israel fully withdraws from Gaza as outlined in the disarmament plan. This stance has stalled progress on implementing the second phase of the ceasefire agreement, contributing to ongoing tensions.
Mar 27 2026
Israeli troops continue operations as ceasefire remains shaky but largely holds
Despite ongoing Israeli military operations against Hamas in Gaza and diplomatic efforts for disarmament, the ceasefire largely held through March 2026, reflecting a fragile but sustained truce without official cancellation announcements.
Mar 25 2026
US Ambassador urges Hamas to decommission weapons for Gaza rebuilding
June 30 jumps to 30%11%
US Ambassador to the UN Mike Waltz emphasized that Hamas must disarm to enable Gaza's reconstruction, reinforcing international pressure on Hamas and Israel to uphold ceasefire terms amid ongoing low-level clashes and Israeli operations.
Mar 18 2026
Israel resumes military operations in Gaza, ending January ceasefire
On March 18, 2026, Israel launched extensive airstrikes on Gaza, officially ending the ceasefire that began in January 2025. Israel cited Hamas's refusal to release hostages and rejection of ceasefire extension proposals as justification. This marked a significant escalation and collapse of the previous truce.
Mar 17 2026
Iran announces missile payload increase to one ton, signaling escalation
June 30 dips to 19%4%
Iran's Revolutionary Guard Aerospace Forces Commander Majid Mousavi stated that 'all missiles will carry a payload of no less than one ton', signaling an escalation in Iran's offensive capability.
Mar 10 2026
Iran rejects US ceasefire, threatens escalation against US, British and French bases
June 30 drops to 23%7%
Iran categorically rejected the ceasefire announced by Trump, calling it 'humiliating' and 'illegitimate', and announced it would attack US, British and French military bases in the region if operations continue.
Feb 21 2026
Israeli strikes kill at least 10 across Lebanon targeting Hezbollah and Hamas sites post-ceasefire
June 30 drops to 30%11%
Israel conducted airstrikes in Lebanon killing at least 10 people, targeting sites linked to Hezbollah and Hamas shortly after a ceasefire agreement, marking a potential violation of the fragile truce.
Feb 17 2026
Hamas rejects Netanyahu aide’s 60-day ultimatum to disarm
June 30 drops to 19%11%
Hamas publicly rejected the Israeli ultimatum demanding disarmament within 60 days, warning of serious regional repercussions and signaling resistance to ceasefire terms, which contributed to market uncertainty about ceasefire durability.
Jan 26 2026
Netanyahu states next ceasefire phase is disarming Hamas, not reconstruction
June 30 jumps to 38%8%
Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu declared that the next phase of the ceasefire focuses on disarming Hamas and demilitarizing Gaza, emphasizing ongoing security concerns and setting conditions for ceasefire progress, impacting market perceptions of ceasefire stability.
Jan 26 2026
Israel recovers remains of last hostage, clearing way for phase two of ceasefire
June 30 jumps to 38%8%
Israel announced the recovery of the last hostage's remains from Gaza, removing a major obstacle to advancing the ceasefire's second phase involving disarmament and governance changes. Hamas confirmed commitment to phase one obligations, supporting ceasefire continuation.
Jan 26 2026
Netanyahu announces next ceasefire phase to focus on disarming Hamas
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu stated that the next phase of the ceasefire would involve disarming Hamas and demilitarizing Gaza, signaling a hardening stance that increased tensions but did not end the ceasefire.
Jan 15 2026
US announces commencement of second phase of Gaza ceasefire plan
June 30 drops to 44%9%
US Special Envoy Steve Witkoff announced the start of the second phase of the ceasefire plan involving discussions on Hamas disarmament and Israeli withdrawal, but negotiations stalled amid ongoing Israeli strikes and Hamas refusal to disarm, maintaining the ceasefire without cancellation.
Jan 14 2026
US announces transition to second phase of Gaza ceasefire plan
June 30 drops to 45%8%
US envoy Steve Witkoff announced the move to phase two of the Gaza ceasefire plan, focusing on disarmament of Hamas and governance changes, signaling a key diplomatic step but met with skepticism due to unresolved root causes. This announcement influenced market expectations about the ceasefire's durability.
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions
"Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by...?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 7 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "December 31" at 49%, followed by "June 30" at 0%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 49¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 49% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.
As of today, "Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by...?" has generated $4.1 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Oct 10, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.
To trade on "Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by...?," browse the 7 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.
The current frontrunner for "Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by...?" is "December 31" at 49%, meaning the market assigns a 49% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "June 30" at 0%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.
The resolution rules for "Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by...?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.
Yes. You don't need to trade to stay informed. This page serves as a live tracker for "Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by...?." The outcome probabilities update in real-time as new trades come in. You can bookmark this page and check the comments section to see what other traders are saying. You can also use the time-range filters on the chart to see how the odds have shifted over time. It's a free, real-time window into what the market expects to happen.
Polymarket odds are set by real traders putting real money behind their beliefs, which tends to surface accurate predictions. With $4.1 million traded on “Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by...?,” these prices aggregate the collective knowledge and conviction of thousands of participants — often outperforming polls, expert forecasts, and traditional surveys. Prediction markets like Polymarket have a strong track record of accuracy, especially as events approach their resolution date. For example, Polymarket has a one month accuracy score of 94%. For the latest stats on Polymarket’s prediction accuracy, visit the accuracy page on Polymarket.
To place your first trade on "Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by...?," sign up for a free Polymarket account and fund it using crypto, a credit or debit card, or a bank transfer. Once your account is funded, return to this page, select the outcome you want to trade, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If you're new to prediction markets, click the "How it works" link at the top of any Polymarket page for a quick step-by-step walkthrough of how trading works.
On Polymarket, the price of each outcome represents the market's implied probability. A price of 49¢ for "December 31" in the "Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by...?" market means traders collectively believe there is roughly a 49% chance that "December 31" will be the correct result. If you buy "Yes" shares at 49¢ and the outcome is correct, you receive $1.00 per share — a profit of 51¢ per share. If incorrect, those shares are worth $0.
The "Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by...?" market is scheduled to resolve on or around Dec 30, 2026. This means trading will remain open and the odds will continue to shift as new information emerges until that date. The exact resolution timing depends on when the official result becomes available, as outlined in the "Rules" section on this page.
The "Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by...?" market has an active community of 978 comments where traders share their analysis, debate outcomes, and discuss breaking developments. Scroll down to the comments section below to read what other participants think. You can also filter by "Top Holders" to see what the market's biggest traders are positioned on, or check the "Activity" tab for a real-time feed of trades.
Polymarket is the world's largest prediction market, where you can stay informed and profit from your knowledge of real-world events. Traders buy and sell shares on outcomes for topics ranging from politics and elections to crypto, finance, sports, tech, and culture, including markets like "Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by...?." Prices reflect real-time, crowd-sourced probabilities backed by financial conviction, often providing faster and more accurate signals than polls, pundits, or traditional surveys.
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions