**Saudi Arabia’s insistence on credible progress toward Palestinian statehood remains the central barrier to further Abraham Accords expansion, with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman publicly conditioning normalization on a two-state framework.** This stance has hardened amid post-Gaza war regional dynamics and Arab public opinion. Despite U.S. pressure—including President Trump’s July 2026 linkage of a civilian nuclear deal to Saudi accession—no breakthrough has occurred. Instead, Riyadh has pursued alternative alignments, such as the August 2026 Mecca Joint Defense Agreement with Turkey and Pakistan. Kazakhstan joined in November 2025 and limited recognition of Somaliland followed, but these steps have not generated momentum for additional members by the end of 2026. Trader consensus reflected in the 82.7% “No” probability aligns with the absence of scheduled diplomatic milestones or shifts in core negotiating positions that could enable a new signatory before 2027.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於是
17% 機率
$281,751 交易量
$281,751 交易量
2026-12-30
是
17% 機率
$281,751 交易量
$281,751 交易量
2026-12-30
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any country not already a part of the Abraham Accords formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the framework of the Abraham Accords by December 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation.
Countries already part of the Abraham Accords as of June 26, 2025—including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan—will not count.
The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.**Saudi Arabia’s insistence on credible progress toward Palestinian statehood remains the central barrier to further Abraham Accords expansion, with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman publicly conditioning normalization on a two-state framework.** This stance has hardened amid post-Gaza war regional dynamics and Arab public opinion. Despite U.S. pressure—including President Trump’s July 2026 linkage of a civilian nuclear deal to Saudi accession—no breakthrough has occurred. Instead, Riyadh has pursued alternative alignments, such as the August 2026 Mecca Joint Defense Agreement with Turkey and Pakistan. Kazakhstan joined in November 2025 and limited recognition of Somaliland followed, but these steps have not generated momentum for additional members by the end of 2026. Trader consensus reflected in the 82.7% “No” probability aligns with the absence of scheduled diplomatic milestones or shifts in core negotiating positions that could enable a new signatory before 2027.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any country not already a part of the Abraham Accords formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the framework of the Abraham Accords by December 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation.
Countries already part of the Abraham Accords as of June 26, 2025—including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan—will not count.
The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.
A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation.
Countries already part of the Abraham Accords as of June 26, 2025—including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan—will not count.
The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.
市場開放時間： Nov 5, 2025, 3:17 PM ET
交易量
$281,751結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Nov 5, 2025, 3:17 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if any country not already a part of the Abraham Accords formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the framework of the Abraham Accords by December 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation.
Countries already part of the Abraham Accords as of June 26, 2025—including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan—will not count.
The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.**Saudi Arabia’s insistence on credible progress toward Palestinian statehood remains the central barrier to further Abraham Accords expansion, with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman publicly conditioning normalization on a two-state framework.** This stance has hardened amid post-Gaza war regional dynamics and Arab public opinion. Despite U.S. pressure—including President Trump’s July 2026 linkage of a civilian nuclear deal to Saudi accession—no breakthrough has occurred. Instead, Riyadh has pursued alternative alignments, such as the August 2026 Mecca Joint Defense Agreement with Turkey and Pakistan. Kazakhstan joined in November 2025 and limited recognition of Somaliland followed, but these steps have not generated momentum for additional members by the end of 2026. Trader consensus reflected in the 82.7% “No” probability aligns with the absence of scheduled diplomatic milestones or shifts in core negotiating positions that could enable a new signatory before 2027.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any country not already a part of the Abraham Accords formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the framework of the Abraham Accords by December 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation.
Countries already part of the Abraham Accords as of June 26, 2025—including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan—will not count.
The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.
A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation.
Countries already part of the Abraham Accords as of June 26, 2025—including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan—will not count.
The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$281,751結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Nov 5, 2025, 3:17 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Saudi Arabia’s insistence on credible progress toward Palestinian statehood remains the central barrier to further Abraham Accords expansion, with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman publicly conditioning normalization on a two-state framework.** This stance has hardened amid post-Gaza war regional dynamics and Arab public opinion. Despite U.S. pressure—including President Trump’s July 2026 linkage of a civilian nuclear deal to Saudi accession—no breakthrough has occurred. Instead, Riyadh has pursued alternative alignments, such as the August 2026 Mecca Joint Defense Agreement with Turkey and Pakistan. Kazakhstan joined in November 2025 and limited recognition of Somaliland followed, but these steps have not generated momentum for additional members by the end of 2026. Trader consensus reflected in the 82.7% “No” probability aligns with the absence of scheduled diplomatic milestones or shifts in core negotiating positions that could enable a new signatory before 2027.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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