Recent quiet conditions in the Atlantic basin, including zero U.S. hurricane landfalls during the 2025 season despite four major hurricanes forming, support trader consensus favoring no Category 4 landfall before 2027. Official NOAA and Colorado State University analyses highlight likely El Niño development in 2026 that increases vertical wind shear and suppresses storm intensification, pointing to below-average activity with reduced odds of major hurricanes reaching the continental U.S. coastline. Historical patterns show multi-year gaps between Category 4 or stronger landfalls are common, and the current lack of favorable steering patterns or rapid intensification signals keeps the market-implied probability for “No” elevated at 63.5%. The upcoming May 21 NOAA seasonal outlook and early June–November monitoring will provide key updates on potential shifts in these dynamics.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於是
$327,991 交易量
$327,991 交易量
2026-12-31
是
$327,991 交易量
$327,991 交易量
2026-12-31
For the purposes of this market, a Category 4 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.Recent quiet conditions in the Atlantic basin, including zero U.S. hurricane landfalls during the 2025 season despite four major hurricanes forming, support trader consensus favoring no Category 4 landfall before 2027. Official NOAA and Colorado State University analyses highlight likely El Niño development in 2026 that increases vertical wind shear and suppresses storm intensification, pointing to below-average activity with reduced odds of major hurricanes reaching the continental U.S. coastline. Historical patterns show multi-year gaps between Category 4 or stronger landfalls are common, and the current lack of favorable steering patterns or rapid intensification signals keeps the market-implied probability for “No” elevated at 63.5%. The upcoming May 21 NOAA seasonal outlook and early June–November monitoring will provide key updates on potential shifts in these dynamics.
For the purposes of this market, a Category 4 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
市場開放時間： Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ET
交易量
$327,991結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...For the purposes of this market, a Category 4 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.Recent quiet conditions in the Atlantic basin, including zero U.S. hurricane landfalls during the 2025 season despite four major hurricanes forming, support trader consensus favoring no Category 4 landfall before 2027. Official NOAA and Colorado State University analyses highlight likely El Niño development in 2026 that increases vertical wind shear and suppresses storm intensification, pointing to below-average activity with reduced odds of major hurricanes reaching the continental U.S. coastline. Historical patterns show multi-year gaps between Category 4 or stronger landfalls are common, and the current lack of favorable steering patterns or rapid intensification signals keeps the market-implied probability for “No” elevated at 63.5%. The upcoming May 21 NOAA seasonal outlook and early June–November monitoring will provide key updates on potential shifts in these dynamics.
For the purposes of this market, a Category 4 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
交易量
$327,991結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent quiet conditions in the Atlantic basin, including zero U.S. hurricane landfalls during the 2025 season despite four major hurricanes forming, support trader consensus favoring no Category 4 landfall before 2027. Official NOAA and Colorado State University analyses highlight likely El Niño development in 2026 that increases vertical wind shear and suppresses storm intensification, pointing to below-average activity with reduced odds of major hurricanes reaching the continental U.S. coastline. Historical patterns show multi-year gaps between Category 4 or stronger landfalls are common, and the current lack of favorable steering patterns or rapid intensification signals keeps the market-implied probability for “No” elevated at 63.5%. The upcoming May 21 NOAA seasonal outlook and early June–November monitoring will provide key updates on potential shifts in these dynamics.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
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