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在颶風季節之前命名風暴形式？

icon for 在颶風季節之前命名風暴形式？

在颶風季節之前命名風暴形式？

5月 31

5月 31

是

6% 機率
Polymarket

$340,689 交易量

是

6% 機率
Polymarket

$340,689 交易量

The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season will take place over a period lasting from June 1 to November 30. This market will resolve to "Yes" if NOAA names a storm in the Atlantic between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms. If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.With no active tropical disturbances in the Atlantic basin as of May 13, per National Hurricane Center (NHC) reports, traders price a 94.5% implied probability against a named storm—defined as sustained winds of at least 39 mph—forming before the official June 1 start. Mid-May conditions feature unfavorable high wind shear, dry Saharan air intrusions, and sea surface temperatures below optimal thresholds for genesis, aligning with climatological rarity (fewer than 10% of seasons see pre-season activity). NHC tropical outlooks resume May 15, but models show no development signals. A sudden tropical wave off Africa or Caribbean could challenge this if shear relaxes and organization accelerates unexpectedly.

The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season will take place over a period lasting from June 1 to November 30.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if NOAA names a storm in the Atlantic between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.

If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.
交易量
$340,689
結束日期
2026-05-31
市場開放時間
Dec 4, 2025, 3:12 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season will take place over a period lasting from June 1 to November 30. This market will resolve to "Yes" if NOAA names a storm in the Atlantic between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms. If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.
The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season will take place over a period lasting from June 1 to November 30. This market will resolve to "Yes" if NOAA names a storm in the Atlantic between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms. If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.With no active tropical disturbances in the Atlantic basin as of May 13, per National Hurricane Center (NHC) reports, traders price a 94.5% implied probability against a named storm—defined as sustained winds of at least 39 mph—forming before the official June 1 start. Mid-May conditions feature unfavorable high wind shear, dry Saharan air intrusions, and sea surface temperatures below optimal thresholds for genesis, aligning with climatological rarity (fewer than 10% of seasons see pre-season activity). NHC tropical outlooks resume May 15, but models show no development signals. A sudden tropical wave off Africa or Caribbean could challenge this if shear relaxes and organization accelerates unexpectedly.

The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season will take place over a period lasting from June 1 to November 30.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if NOAA names a storm in the Atlantic between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.

If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.
交易量
$340,689
結束日期
2026-05-31
市場開放時間
Dec 4, 2025, 3:12 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season will take place over a period lasting from June 1 to November 30. This market will resolve to "Yes" if NOAA names a storm in the Atlantic between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms. If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.

警惕外部連結哦。

Frequently Asked Questions

"在颶風季節之前命名風暴形式？" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 2 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "命名風暴在颶風季節開始前形成？" at 6%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 6¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 6% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "在颶風季節之前命名風暴形式？" has generated $340.7K in total trading volume since the market launched on Dec 4, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "在颶風季節之前命名風暴形式？," browse the 2 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

This is a wide-open market. The current leader for "在颶風季節之前命名風暴形式？" is "命名風暴在颶風季節開始前形成？" at just 6%. With no outcome commanding a strong majority, traders see this as highly uncertain, which can present unique trading opportunities. These odds update in real-time, so bookmark this page to watch how the probabilities evolve.

The resolution rules for "在颶風季節之前命名風暴形式？" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.