The overwhelming trader consensus favoring no U.S. hurricane landfall by May 31 reflects the Atlantic basin’s official season start on June 1 and the National Hurricane Center’s current assessment of zero tropical cyclone formation risk over the next seven days. As of mid-May 2026, no organized disturbances are under watch, with existing tropical waves suppressed by dry air and unfavorable wind shear typical of the pre-season period. Climatological data show that only a handful of named storms have ever formed before June 1 in the satellite era, and none have reached hurricane intensity with U.S. landfall this early. While an anomalous early system remains theoretically possible if sea-surface temperatures and steering patterns align unusually, official forecasts and historical baselines continue to support the market’s high implied probability for no landfall.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於是
$25,973 交易量
$25,973 交易量
2026-05-31
是
$25,973 交易量
$25,973 交易量
2026-05-31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a hurricane makes landfall in the conterminous United States within this market's timeframe, between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET as described in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2025/). If no tropical systems make landfall in the conterminous United States at hurricane status within this market's timeframe, this market will resolve to "No".
This market may only resolve to "No" after May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET if the conditions for a "Yes" resolution have not been met.
For the purpose of this market, a hurricane landfall is said to occur when a hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL , and the NHC officially reports that the storm has maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or higher at the time of landfall.
This market will resolve based on an initial advisory released by the NHC that a hurricane has made landfall within the conterminous United States within the market timeframe regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial announcement.The overwhelming trader consensus favoring no U.S. hurricane landfall by May 31 reflects the Atlantic basin’s official season start on June 1 and the National Hurricane Center’s current assessment of zero tropical cyclone formation risk over the next seven days. As of mid-May 2026, no organized disturbances are under watch, with existing tropical waves suppressed by dry air and unfavorable wind shear typical of the pre-season period. Climatological data show that only a handful of named storms have ever formed before June 1 in the satellite era, and none have reached hurricane intensity with U.S. landfall this early. While an anomalous early system remains theoretically possible if sea-surface temperatures and steering patterns align unusually, official forecasts and historical baselines continue to support the market’s high implied probability for no landfall.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a hurricane makes landfall in the conterminous United States within this market's timeframe, between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET as described in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2025/). If no tropical systems make landfall in the conterminous United States at hurricane status within this market's timeframe, this market will resolve to "No".
This market may only resolve to "No" after May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET if the conditions for a "Yes" resolution have not been met.
For the purpose of this market, a hurricane landfall is said to occur when a hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL , and the NHC officially reports that the storm has maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or higher at the time of landfall.
This market will resolve based on an initial advisory released by the NHC that a hurricane has made landfall within the conterminous United States within the market timeframe regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial announcement.
This market may only resolve to "No" after May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET if the conditions for a "Yes" resolution have not been met.
For the purpose of this market, a hurricane landfall is said to occur when a hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL , and the NHC officially reports that the storm has maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or higher at the time of landfall.
This market will resolve based on an initial advisory released by the NHC that a hurricane has made landfall within the conterminous United States within the market timeframe regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial announcement.
市場開放時間： Dec 4, 2025, 3:05 PM ET
交易量
$25,973結束日期
2026-05-31市場開放時間
Dec 4, 2025, 3:05 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a hurricane makes landfall in the conterminous United States within this market's timeframe, between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET as described in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2025/). If no tropical systems make landfall in the conterminous United States at hurricane status within this market's timeframe, this market will resolve to "No".
This market may only resolve to "No" after May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET if the conditions for a "Yes" resolution have not been met.
For the purpose of this market, a hurricane landfall is said to occur when a hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL , and the NHC officially reports that the storm has maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or higher at the time of landfall.
This market will resolve based on an initial advisory released by the NHC that a hurricane has made landfall within the conterminous United States within the market timeframe regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial announcement.The overwhelming trader consensus favoring no U.S. hurricane landfall by May 31 reflects the Atlantic basin’s official season start on June 1 and the National Hurricane Center’s current assessment of zero tropical cyclone formation risk over the next seven days. As of mid-May 2026, no organized disturbances are under watch, with existing tropical waves suppressed by dry air and unfavorable wind shear typical of the pre-season period. Climatological data show that only a handful of named storms have ever formed before June 1 in the satellite era, and none have reached hurricane intensity with U.S. landfall this early. While an anomalous early system remains theoretically possible if sea-surface temperatures and steering patterns align unusually, official forecasts and historical baselines continue to support the market’s high implied probability for no landfall.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a hurricane makes landfall in the conterminous United States within this market's timeframe, between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET as described in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2025/). If no tropical systems make landfall in the conterminous United States at hurricane status within this market's timeframe, this market will resolve to "No".
This market may only resolve to "No" after May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET if the conditions for a "Yes" resolution have not been met.
For the purpose of this market, a hurricane landfall is said to occur when a hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL , and the NHC officially reports that the storm has maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or higher at the time of landfall.
This market will resolve based on an initial advisory released by the NHC that a hurricane has made landfall within the conterminous United States within the market timeframe regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial announcement.
This market may only resolve to "No" after May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET if the conditions for a "Yes" resolution have not been met.
For the purpose of this market, a hurricane landfall is said to occur when a hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL , and the NHC officially reports that the storm has maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or higher at the time of landfall.
This market will resolve based on an initial advisory released by the NHC that a hurricane has made landfall within the conterminous United States within the market timeframe regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial announcement.
交易量
$25,973結束日期
2026-05-31市場開放時間
Dec 4, 2025, 3:05 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The overwhelming trader consensus favoring no U.S. hurricane landfall by May 31 reflects the Atlantic basin’s official season start on June 1 and the National Hurricane Center’s current assessment of zero tropical cyclone formation risk over the next seven days. As of mid-May 2026, no organized disturbances are under watch, with existing tropical waves suppressed by dry air and unfavorable wind shear typical of the pre-season period. Climatological data show that only a handful of named storms have ever formed before June 1 in the satellite era, and none have reached hurricane intensity with U.S. landfall this early. While an anomalous early system remains theoretically possible if sea-surface temperatures and steering patterns align unusually, official forecasts and historical baselines continue to support the market’s high implied probability for no landfall.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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