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icon for Phoebe Gates會在9月30日前被捕嗎？

Phoebe Gates會在9月30日前被捕嗎？

icon for Phoebe Gates會在9月30日前被捕嗎？

Phoebe Gates會在9月30日前被捕嗎？

是

4% 機率
Polymarket
最新

是

4% 機率
Polymarket
最新
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Phoebe Gates is arrested between market creation and September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying arrest occurs when Phoebe Gates is taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities in any jurisdiction, voluntarily or involuntarily, and at least one of the following is true: (i) Phoebe Gates is criminally booked or processed; (ii) Phoebe Gates is taken into custody in response to a criminal arrest warrant, criminal charge, indictment, or equivalent criminal charging instrument; (iii) Phoebe Gates is held for arraignment, bail, extradition, or other criminal court proceedings other than as a witness; or (iv) Phoebe Gates is transported to a police station, immigration detention center, or equivalent criminal law enforcement center. The issuance of an arrest warrant, being named in an indictment, or being charged without Phoebe Gates being taken into physical custody will not qualify. The following will not qualify on their own: brief detention, being interviewed or questioned, being searched, house arrest, electronic monitoring, protective custody, witness protection, or medical holds. Release on bail, recognizance, bond, dismissal of charges, withdrawal of charges, acquittal, pardon, or any other post-arrest development will not affect resolution once a qualifying arrest has occurred. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Phoebe Gates faces intense scrutiny over cookie-stuffing allegations at her AI shopping startup Phia, but traders see virtually no chance of an arrest by September 30 because no charges have been filed and federal wire-fraud probes rarely move that fast. Bloomberg’s July reporting and leaked Slack messages revealed internal awareness of improper affiliate tracking, yet experts emphasize that first-time founders in such cases typically face civil lawsuits, restitution demands, or regulatory fines rather than immediate criminal arrest. The six-week window to the resolution date leaves almost no runway for an investigation, indictment, and warrant execution. A realistic upset would require an unusually aggressive DOJ move on a high-profile target, something historical precedent and the absence of confirmed enforcement activity make highly improbable.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Phoebe Gates is arrested between market creation and September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A qualifying arrest occurs when Phoebe Gates is taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities in any jurisdiction, voluntarily or involuntarily, and at least one of the following is true:

(i) Phoebe Gates is criminally booked or processed;
(ii) Phoebe Gates is taken into custody in response to a criminal arrest warrant, criminal charge, indictment, or equivalent criminal charging instrument;
(iii) Phoebe Gates is held for arraignment, bail, extradition, or other criminal court proceedings other than as a witness; or
(iv) Phoebe Gates is transported to a police station, immigration detention center, or equivalent criminal law enforcement center.

The issuance of an arrest warrant, being named in an indictment, or being charged without Phoebe Gates being taken into physical custody will not qualify. The following will not qualify on their own: brief detention, being interviewed or questioned, being searched, house arrest, electronic monitoring, protective custody, witness protection, or medical holds.

Release on bail, recognizance, bond, dismissal of charges, withdrawal of charges, acquittal, pardon, or any other post-arrest development will not affect resolution once a qualifying arrest has occurred.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$11
結束日期
2026-09-30
市場開放時間
Aug 14, 2026, 2:59 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Phoebe Gates is arrested between market creation and September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying arrest occurs when Phoebe Gates is taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities in any jurisdiction, voluntarily or involuntarily, and at least one of the following is true: (i) Phoebe Gates is criminally booked or processed; (ii) Phoebe Gates is taken into custody in response to a criminal arrest warrant, criminal charge, indictment, or equivalent criminal charging instrument; (iii) Phoebe Gates is held for arraignment, bail, extradition, or other criminal court proceedings other than as a witness; or (iv) Phoebe Gates is transported to a police station, immigration detention center, or equivalent criminal law enforcement center. The issuance of an arrest warrant, being named in an indictment, or being charged without Phoebe Gates being taken into physical custody will not qualify. The following will not qualify on their own: brief detention, being interviewed or questioned, being searched, house arrest, electronic monitoring, protective custody, witness protection, or medical holds. Release on bail, recognizance, bond, dismissal of charges, withdrawal of charges, acquittal, pardon, or any other post-arrest development will not affect resolution once a qualifying arrest has occurred. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Phoebe Gates is arrested between market creation and September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying arrest occurs when Phoebe Gates is taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities in any jurisdiction, voluntarily or involuntarily, and at least one of the following is true: (i) Phoebe Gates is criminally booked or processed; (ii) Phoebe Gates is taken into custody in response to a criminal arrest warrant, criminal charge, indictment, or equivalent criminal charging instrument; (iii) Phoebe Gates is held for arraignment, bail, extradition, or other criminal court proceedings other than as a witness; or (iv) Phoebe Gates is transported to a police station, immigration detention center, or equivalent criminal law enforcement center. The issuance of an arrest warrant, being named in an indictment, or being charged without Phoebe Gates being taken into physical custody will not qualify. The following will not qualify on their own: brief detention, being interviewed or questioned, being searched, house arrest, electronic monitoring, protective custody, witness protection, or medical holds. Release on bail, recognizance, bond, dismissal of charges, withdrawal of charges, acquittal, pardon, or any other post-arrest development will not affect resolution once a qualifying arrest has occurred. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Phoebe Gates faces intense scrutiny over cookie-stuffing allegations at her AI shopping startup Phia, but traders see virtually no chance of an arrest by September 30 because no charges have been filed and federal wire-fraud probes rarely move that fast. Bloomberg’s July reporting and leaked Slack messages revealed internal awareness of improper affiliate tracking, yet experts emphasize that first-time founders in such cases typically face civil lawsuits, restitution demands, or regulatory fines rather than immediate criminal arrest. The six-week window to the resolution date leaves almost no runway for an investigation, indictment, and warrant execution. A realistic upset would require an unusually aggressive DOJ move on a high-profile target, something historical precedent and the absence of confirmed enforcement activity make highly improbable.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Phoebe Gates is arrested between market creation and September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A qualifying arrest occurs when Phoebe Gates is taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities in any jurisdiction, voluntarily or involuntarily, and at least one of the following is true:

(i) Phoebe Gates is criminally booked or processed;
(ii) Phoebe Gates is taken into custody in response to a criminal arrest warrant, criminal charge, indictment, or equivalent criminal charging instrument;
(iii) Phoebe Gates is held for arraignment, bail, extradition, or other criminal court proceedings other than as a witness; or
(iv) Phoebe Gates is transported to a police station, immigration detention center, or equivalent criminal law enforcement center.

The issuance of an arrest warrant, being named in an indictment, or being charged without Phoebe Gates being taken into physical custody will not qualify. The following will not qualify on their own: brief detention, being interviewed or questioned, being searched, house arrest, electronic monitoring, protective custody, witness protection, or medical holds.

Release on bail, recognizance, bond, dismissal of charges, withdrawal of charges, acquittal, pardon, or any other post-arrest development will not affect resolution once a qualifying arrest has occurred.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$11
結束日期
2026-09-30
市場開放時間
Aug 14, 2026, 2:59 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Phoebe Gates is arrested between market creation and September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying arrest occurs when Phoebe Gates is taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities in any jurisdiction, voluntarily or involuntarily, and at least one of the following is true: (i) Phoebe Gates is criminally booked or processed; (ii) Phoebe Gates is taken into custody in response to a criminal arrest warrant, criminal charge, indictment, or equivalent criminal charging instrument; (iii) Phoebe Gates is held for arraignment, bail, extradition, or other criminal court proceedings other than as a witness; or (iv) Phoebe Gates is transported to a police station, immigration detention center, or equivalent criminal law enforcement center. The issuance of an arrest warrant, being named in an indictment, or being charged without Phoebe Gates being taken into physical custody will not qualify. The following will not qualify on their own: brief detention, being interviewed or questioned, being searched, house arrest, electronic monitoring, protective custody, witness protection, or medical holds. Release on bail, recognizance, bond, dismissal of charges, withdrawal of charges, acquittal, pardon, or any other post-arrest development will not affect resolution once a qualifying arrest has occurred. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Phoebe Gates會在9月30日前被捕嗎？" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 2 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "菲比·蓋茨會在9月30日前被逮捕嗎？" at 4%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 4¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 4% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Phoebe Gates會在9月30日前被捕嗎？" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Aug 14, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Phoebe Gates會在9月30日前被捕嗎？," browse the 2 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

This is a wide-open market. The current leader for "Phoebe Gates會在9月30日前被捕嗎？" is "菲比·蓋茨會在9月30日前被逮捕嗎？" at just 4%. With no outcome commanding a strong majority, traders see this as highly uncertain, which can present unique trading opportunities. These odds update in real-time, so bookmark this page to watch how the probabilities evolve.

The resolution rules for "Phoebe Gates會在9月30日前被捕嗎？" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.